Recently, 20 prevention and control items were issued, and some online debates about liberalization, blockade and lying flatness. Today I discuss who is the first in economy and life. In fact, there is nothing to discuss. Anyway, the affirmative man has his own reason, and the mother has his own reason, and no one can win. I am not an expert, but I express some opinions on my common sense and thinking logic:
1. What is the current fact?
The new coronavirus has been shrouding us for 3 years since 2020. From the beginning, we knew nothing about the virus and had no response, which led to the earliest high mortality rate, which is scary until now. From the evolution of the virus three years ago to the current Omickron , from the research on the virus and current data, we can see that the transmission has increased greatly, basically to being omnipresent, but the terrible rate and mortality rate have been greatly reduced. There were 600,000 infections in Shanghai in the middle of the year, with about 580 deaths. Judging from this data alone, less than one thousandth of them are found. But let’s look at the average age of deaths over 80 years old and all have underlying diseases. I won’t explain what this means.
. The current extreme prevention and control in Haizhu District, Guangzhou is not good. In fact, it is not that the prevention and control is not strict, nor is it that the effect is not good, but that the virus is spreading too quickly and cannot win at all. However, from the data, the ratio of symptoms and asymptomatic symptoms is also quite large, basically reaching about 1 to 400 every day, and the severe disease rate is even lower. Judging from the deaths in Beijing the day before yesterday, they are all around 80 years old and have serious underlying diseases. One case is a paralyzed elderly man in bed. So how did he get infected?
or above objective facts tell us that the virus is really not scary now and can be completely cured. Most of them may not even have symptoms. The panic is caused by excessive publicity. Various self-media use the epidemic, where the city is locked down, and where it is medical accidents are used as a tool for entertainment and traffic.
2. Some people are worried about the run of medical resources after the release of
. The current strict prevention and control know how many medical resources are consumed? First of all, the money spent on nucleic acids. A population of nearly 20 million like Guangzhou, calculated at 4 yuan per person, can cost hundreds of millions every day. It's billions in a month. Not to mention the cost of free isolation, if these funds are used to treat severe cases, I think it will cost 1 million yuan for a severe case, and I think it will not be enough to spend it.
According to the data of 7.5 million people in Hong Kong, it has been relaxed for half a year. The current number of infections per day is around 6,000. So at 400:1, there are only a few dozen people who need to go to the hospital. Even if 1,000 people need to see a doctor every day, the current 100,000 cases in Guangzhou are only more than 10 severe cases, which will not cause a run for current medical resources. And if you are worried that ordinary hospitals will cause the spread of the virus, it will be easy to solve. How much can the funds for nucleic acid testing be built in temporary hospital or specialized hospitals?
If each city has a 100-point square cabin hospital with a population of this city, the problem will be solved. New infections and cure balance in and out every day.
If you need to be hospitalized for severe illness, several specialized hospitals and several designated hospitals will be built. According to the proportion of severe illness, it is enough to have one ten thousandth of the total population of the city.
3. Virus attributes and sequelae issues
Virus mutation has begun to stabilize so far.
first, this issue has been published by experts. Second, from Shanghai in the middle of the year to Guangzhou now, the symptoms and data of infection can indicate that the current pathogenic disease is in the upper respiratory tract, which is a self-limiting disease, mainly relying on immunity and to heal itself. Third, the sequelae problem, I don’t say that this problem has not been confirmed at all. In fact, it was in 2020. Because of insufficient understanding of the virus, I had no response and could only use the accumulated treatment method. To put it bluntly, this treatment is exploring treatment plans. To put it bluntly, that group of patients are guinea pigs and have strong toxicity, which leads to sequelae.
. There are hundreds of thousands of cases of Omickron now, and there are no confirmed sequelae.Judging from the toxicity of Omickron, most of the symptoms are in the upper respiratory tract. Those with common sense know what this means, and there will be no sequelae at all.
from the word stability means that the mutant toxicity of these generations is similar and the transmission is similar. Then there is a high probability that the toxicity will not be much worse after several generations, and it will not be good or bad.
4. What we can know now is, can the virus be eliminated? What is the final result?
The actual answer is no. So have you ever thought about how many years could you last if you strictly prevent and control like today?
Since this virus has been preserved by natural selection, given the current high transmission rate and low pathogenicity, you, me and everyone will eventually be infected, and like the cold virus, no one can escape. Of course, some people say that he has never caught a cold in his life, so he won’t study this kind of one in billions, just carry it.
At present, all provinces and major cities have been under strict prevention and control. For example, Xinjiang has been closed for nearly 4 months. Xinjiang is originally a place with a large area with sparsely populated areas, so what if there are few people? So what if the city is locked down? The final result is still unpredictable.
Obviously, even if the epidemic prevention method like blocking and control is blocked for another 10 or 20 years, it will be useless because it cannot be eliminated. For example, strict prevention and control or even lockdowns now can only theoretically slow down the time and opportunity for everyone to get infected, but in the long run, everyone will have an infinite probability of being infected, and everyone will get infected with . This conclusion is not based on the transfer of human will.
5, what should we do now?
First, over the past three years, we have already had enough understanding of the virus. We already have the vaccine and have a booster injection. Although we cannot completely immunize with , it can greatly reduce severe diseases. Believe in science and respect science without being too worried or panic. Don’t go out to grab supplies whenever there are cases, and don’t dare to go out if you are afraid, causing panic and creating panic.
Second, we have experience in treating severe diseases and have special drugs, which may not work well. Many people are doubting it, but this is a fact. Like Shanghai and Hainan have been used in clinical practice. Don’t believe it has an effect. Because this is for treating and preventing severe cases, there are too few severe cases, you don’t know. For example, there are no deaths in more than 10 severe cases in Guangzhou now. We must believe in facts and technology. And there are a number of drugs under development. In addition, the severe illness mentioned here is purely the damage to the human body by the new coronavirus, not because of underlying diseases. Cases of underlying diseases induced by the new coronavirus, because serious underlying diseases can not only be induced by the new coronavirus, but even colds will also be induced.
third, graded diagnosis and treatment . Currently, all provinces, cities and counties have been building or planning temporary hospitals. This is not for the purpose of preparing for the outbreak of a certain city or a certain area, but for the purpose of opening up.
The above conclusion is already very clear. first , everyone's infection is certain. This probability is infinite over time and is not transferred by human will. second , it will definitely be open, it is only a matter of time. This is inevitable. It will not be open just because a group of people don’t want to open, nor will they open immediately because someone wants to open. It requires certain conditions to open, that is, there is a place to treat and a way to treat, so it will definitely be open and not subject to human will.
So what information can we get after letting go? What is the final result?
will be infected in a large number of cases in a short period of time, which is correct. But how to deal with it? Is it still blocked like this? I don't think so.
If you need to be hospitalized for severe illness, go to a designated hospital or specialized hospital. That’s right, there will be a hospital dedicated to treating COVID-19 in the future.
for mild symptoms to go to the temporary cabin.
Asymptomatically, just purchase anti-source testing and antiviral drugs such as Lotus Qingwen and stay at home. If you have symptoms, just go to the temporary cabin to report by yourself.
See this, if you have the ability to think carefully, is this the reason?
I don’t want to take advantage of the traffic of the epidemic, I just want to do some common sense and simple logical interpretations. I hope everyone has an objective understanding of the epidemic.
If you think it makes sense, please forward and like it!
