As the highest creature on earth, humans are still at a disadvantage in the face of nature, especially in the face of various disasters. Plagues have been an inescapable disaster for humans from ancient times to the present! _
At the end of 2019, the sudden outbreak of the new coronavirus disrupted our lives, and the whole country united together to survive the panic of the new coronavirus when it first came, and successfully controlled the spread of the virus.
Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, various countries have tried various epidemic prevention measures, especially the popularity of COVID-19 vaccine has greatly controlled the transmission of the virus and reduced the incidence of severe cases. However, according to the current epidemic data, there is no trace of elimination of the new crown. When will the new crown that has lasted for three years end?
Why did SARS suddenly disappear?
The new coronavirus and the SARS virus that broke out in 2013 are both coronaviruses. Why did the previous SAR suddenly disappear?
003 was a sad and exciting year.
In this year, an unknown disaster came in full force and unknowingly attacked Guangdong, China. It spread rapidly in our country in a short period of time. It is undeniable that the SARS virus did cause huge losses to us humans back then.
In the face of the fierce SARS, we do not have special medicines, let alone vaccines. After the patient is infected with the virus, he will develop symptoms of shortness of breath and chest tightness in a short period of time, which will endanger his life.
However, from the beginning, SARS disappeared within 4 months. How did it do it?
strong control measures
Since the discovery of the high infectiousness and severity of SARS, local governments have taken strong prevention and control measures, such as isolation and treatment measures for patients, and effectively control the transmission pathway of SARS.
transmission pathway is strictly controlled
SARS, like the new crown today, is also a disease caused by the coronavirus and is a respiratory infectious disease. After the SARS epidemic broke out, my country's health department decisively made a series of deployments to restrict the flow of people, effectively preventing the further spread of the epidemic, and laying the groundwork for the disappearance of SARS.
Effective medical measures
Although the medical conditions at that time were not as good as those now, medical staff were still working hard day and night to save every life. During the treatment process, the bold use of traditional Chinese medicine is also one of the better treatment effects of SARS patients.
Vision characteristics
SARS pathogen is also a coronavirus, but the virus has poor heat resistance. As the weather gradually becomes hotter, SARS viruses have fewer and fewer places, so this is also one of the reasons for the disappearance of SARS.
The new crown lasts for three years. When will it end?
In a blink of an eye, the new crown epidemic has lasted for nearly three years, and each of our lives has also undergone tremendous changes. Checking nucleic acids, itinerary codes, health codes, and wearing masks has become the most common things in life. The new crown epidemic is still happening now, so when can we truly control the spread of the epidemic?
Regarding this topic, many experts have made predictions:
From of Lanzhou University Huang Jianping Academician speculated that the new crown epidemic will end in November 2023.
From British experts' predictions: the epidemic will end in 2022 and 2023. If the epidemic is very severe, it may not be completely eliminated until 2026.
These are just predictions based on the current epidemic situation. When will the new crown pneumonia be completely eliminated, there is no specific time yet. Compared with this, we still need to take preventive measures.
As long as we are fast, don’t lie flat, grit our teeth and persevere, one day, the haze of the epidemic will dissipate and we will eventually usher in a normal life and work.
Why is the new crown difficult to eliminate?
[The new coronavirus is highly contagious]
On Epidemiological , the basic infection number (R0) is an important indicator to measure the virus's ability to contagious, referring to the average number of people who are infected with a certain infectious disease will transmit the disease to other people without external intervention. The greater the R0 value, the more contagious the virus is.
[The emergence of asymptomatic infections]
The authoritative journal Nature published an article saying that "30%-60% of new coronavirus infections have asymptomatic or mild symptoms", and Harvard University public health scholar Sarah estimates that "40% of the spread of the new coronavirus is asymptomatic."
Asymptomatic infections make the virus continue to spread and it is difficult to eliminate it directly. There may even be immune escape, which is even more difficult to deal with.
[High variability of the new coronavirus]
The variability of the new coronavirus makes it difficult to understand. Many viral types have been found, such as α, β, delta, lamada and other types. Moreover, in just over a year, there have been tens of thousands of mutations in the new coronavirus.
In the future, some strains of the new crown may undergo continuous mutations. If they pass some form of breakthrough, they may produce strains with stronger virulence!
[Unpersistence of neutralizing antibodies in the body]
From the current point of view, whether it is the antibodies produced after natural infection or the antibodies produced after vaccination, the maintenance time is very short. The half-life of is about 3 months, that is, after 3 months, the neutralizing antibody level is only half of the starting point. Therefore, even if vaccinated, the low neutralizing antibody level often occurs in the body.
