In-depth thinking and opportunity points of the "ghost story" phenomenon
Recently, there have been scenes of white horse stocks flash crash diving , and there are various rumors in the market. To sum up, is one point: various decoupling. Almost all industries are testing independence, controllability and substitution. However, because nowadays, all the interpretations of news are more negative. For example, for innovative drug service companies, , the market will not say which speculates are independent of domestic scientific research and replace foreign products; instead, they will sell them blindly, which is a reflection of the market's pessimism.
Similarly, for bank stocks, deposit interest rates dropped, increasing the interest spread , which is also regarded as a thunder in assets. When the market cuts supply to for , it was also misread by banking. The fee reductions of securities firms are first interpreted as negative. According to the sector decline list, it is not the decline in the so-called fee reduction ranking, especially the Internet brokerage firms of Dongcai themselves, which are significantly lower than traditional brokerage firms, but rather the , which has the largest decline. Therefore, it can only be said that the market is now adjusting, especially the volume shrinks significantly. No matter how it falls, it is difficult to see panic and bottom-buying.
Recently, the stocks with heavy holdings in institutions have been taking turns to collapse, which is the stage of telling "ghost stories". , such as Huaxi-Bio, on September 19, dived. If it is said that because of the rumors, "Shanghai held a medical beauty work conference, and it is necessary to formulate law enforcement standards for the medical beauty industry, and the rebate is classified as financial bribery." It is considered a negative news, then assuming that this is true, Huaxi-Bio, 's medical beauty revenue accounts for 10%, and the skin care business accounts for more than 70%, but the decline is the first. Is this reasonable? This is the same as the 9.16 brokerage firm. Assuming that the fee reduction is for securities, then the fees of Internet finance are obviously lower than those of traditional brokerage firms, and instead lead the decline. Is this logical?
For example, 9.21 flash crash was Mindray -Medical, rumor is that "because the customs export data in Guangdong Province in August was not good"; in fact, unlike the domestic " dynamic zero " policy, foreign countries have become a new normal, so many export businesses will not only not decline, but on the contrary, overseas markets have shown a rebound rate of 30-40%. In China, because the number of medical treatments has decreased, the relevant demand has been temporarily sealed by . We have seen that during this period, many varieties such as San'an-Photoelectric, Pi-Zai-Yi, Star-Semiconductor have also shown similar trends. ——So can only say two points. First, under the weak market, it is all pessimistic interpretation; secondly, the adjustment factors are obviously irrational, and the emotional factors are stronger. Of course, the more such factors are, it also means that after the market warms up, the correction factor will be greater. So, in the final analysis, the recent adjustment is not a certain industry, a certain stock, but a group presentation of market environment factors.
The "ghost story" cycle in history and the subsequent trend
In the second half of 2018, similar scenes were also staged in A-shares. The heavily held stocks of funds such as Oriental-Yurong, Sanan-Optoelectronics, Wuliang-Liquid, Yanghe-Shareholders, Longi-Green Energy, Yangnong-Chemical Industry all fell by more than 30%. The most important thing is that they all experienced limit downs in local areas. Especially in October 2018, stocks such as Angel Yeast, Zhifei Biology, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Fuling Ketchup all saw a drop of more than 20% in a single month. This is due to the fact that under the leadership of extreme pessimism, the market is catching negative news, and white horse stocks with good liquidity have become the target of concentrated catharsis of bears .
But if we look at it for a long time, not only will it recover the lost land, but more than half of it has achieved an increase of more than doubled from the previous high point. Therefore, this is a choice between local and longer-term cycles. The more you struggle during the sluggish cycle, the more wrong it is. is like a wave hitting, don’t continue to thrust. You should calm yourself down and rest. If you keep fighting with the waves at this time, you will not only be exhausted by the toss and weaknesses, but will easily be overturned. It should be time to take a break and wait until the wind is calm and swim hard.
So, data is obviously not convincing enough. We will continue to study and sort out market industry data and will find more discoveries. Especially in 2022, Yuming specially analyzed the many changes that the US stock market caused in the 1970s ( "The Implications of the US Stock Market from 1970 to 1980 (Part 1) Survival Rules and Hot Spot Switching" and "The Implications of the US Stock Market from 1970 to 1980 (Part 2) Stock Market from 1970 to 1980 (Part 2) Transformation Stock Selection and Game Strategy" ), because the current environment is particularly similar to the factors at that time. There were also many "ghost stories" phenomena at that time, but what happened next? What kind of strategy should be applied? Next, focus on analysis.
So, data is obviously not convincing enough. We will continue to study and sort out market industry data and will find more discoveries. Especially in 2022, Yuming specially analyzed the many changes that the US stock market caused in the 1970s ( "The Implications of the US Stock Market from 1970 to 1980 (Part 1) Survival Rules and Hot Spot Switching" and "The Implications of the US Stock Market from 1970 to 1980 (Part 2) Stock Market from 1970 to 1980 (Part 2) Transformation Stock Selection and Game Strategy" ), because the current environment is particularly similar to the factors at that time. There were also many "ghost stories" phenomena at that time, but what happened next? What kind of strategy should be applied? Next, focus on analysis.
