When exploring and looking for accurate information, we will subconsciously satisfy the idea that "we are right" and search for evidence to support our position.
Take Peter Wason's famous experiment as an example. There are 4 cards in total. One side of the card is a letter and the other side is a number. If you want to test this hypothesis: one side of the card has a vowel and the other side has an even number, which cards should be turned over?
Most people will choose a card with a vowel on it, such as the first "A"; then turn over the second "2", first verify whether the reverse side of A is an even number, and then verify that the reverse side of 2 is an even number. Not a vowel. This is because we are accustomed to using the "forward testing" method to treat problems. We will first test the results that the hypothesis is correct, rather than looking for results that overturn the hypothesis.
What we should verify is the fourth "7", because if the back of 7 is a vowel, then the assumption that "the back of vowel is an even number" is no longer valid; if the back of 7 is not a vowel, then it is necessary Verify the first "A" again. Because what we want to verify is not "the back of an even number is a vowel", we don't need to worry about the second "2".
It is our instinct to be accustomed to positive testing, but this can also be exploited by others.
For example, everyone says that a fortune teller is very accurate. He tells a bunch of things about our past, and we automatically search for matching information in our memory, and then find that he is indeed accurate.
For example, some stock recommendation masters will deliberately package themselves in a very powerful way. If we take a look at some of the stocks he has recommended, we will find that nine out of ten times what he said can basically come true.
For example, the so-called best-selling book "Good to Great" summarizes some genes necessary for superior listed companies, and then we use these genes to apply to the best companies currently and find that they more or less have these elements.
Conclusion.
① We will ignore the blind spot of "forward verification", but we can also take advantage of this in reverse. To make others believe in us, we can first establish a positive image, and then the other person will instinctively verify the assumption that "he is a good person."
② For some important things, reverse verification is required. Why not go find a known charlatan and see if he also has these qualities of the "masters"? Find some bankrupt companies and see if they also have the "good to great" gene?
wishes everyone a happy life.
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