The five major Western countries, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy, are said to have issued an ultimatum to Serbian President Vucic on the 25th, ordering Serbia to agree to dismantle the roadblocks in northern Kosovo.

The recent tensions in Kosovo have overshadowed the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The five major Western countries, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, are said to have issued an ultimatum to Serbian President Vucic on the 25th, ordering Serbia to agree to dismantle the roadblocks in northern Kosovo. Serbian President Vucic responded with the highest combat readiness.

Serbian President Vucic ordered on the evening of December 26 local time that the Serbian army and police entered the highest level of combat readiness. Vucic said, "All measures will be taken to protect our people and safeguard Serbia."

The Balkan Peninsula, known as the "European powder keg", will there be another war?

The Balkan Peninsula where Serbia is located has always been called the "European powder keg". After all, the World War was caused by the "Sanajevo" incident, and Sanajevo was in Serbia.

On June 28, 1914, The Crown Prince of the Austro-Hungarian Empire Archduke Ferdinand and his wife were visiting Sanajevo, Serbia, and this Tianzheng was the day of national humiliation for Serbia ( Turkish conquered Serbia on June 28, 1386. June 28 was the anniversary of Serbia’s conquest by Turkey), which aroused strong dissatisfaction in Serbia, so Serbian passionate youth directly assassinated Archduke Ferdinand. This incident caused the Austro-Hungarian Empire to declare war on Serbia and became the fuse of the First World War.

This incident is too old and only exists in history books. Many people are not interested in it. However, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia more than 20 years ago is still fresh in the memory of many people.

In 1999, the Kosovo War broke out. During the bombing of Yugoslavia, the US-led NATO troops brutally bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, claiming the lives of three Chinese journalists.

The war ended with the withdrawal of Serb troops and the entry of multinational forces into Kosovo. Former Yugoslavian President Milosevic was escorted to the International Court of Justice in The Hague on the charge of "ethnic cleansing" and later died in prison.

In 2008, Kosovo unilaterally declared "independence" with the support of the West. Although dozens of countries such as China and Russia have not recognized it, of course Serbia has always declared sovereignty over Kosovo.

The current conflict actually started from a small matter. The Kosovo Albanian local government requires that cars with license plates issued by the Serbian government must be re-registered and replaced with license plates issued by the Kosovo local government. This move has caused dissatisfaction among the local Serbs. "If we lose this (license plate), then this will no longer be Serbia, and we will lose our identity."

However, such a trivial matter has actually reached the brink of military conflict under the mediation of NATO. So does Serbia really dare to respond with force?

Of course, although Vucic has adopted a high-profile response, it is obvious that if Serbia dares to use force, it will only lead to another attack from NATO and repeat the mistakes of the Yugoslavia.

At that time, Yugoslavia was one of the top military powers in the world. It had a standing army of about 90,000 people, 400,000 reserve troops, and 80,000 internal affairs troops. It was precisely because Yugoslavia’s ground troops could not be underestimated that NATO forces did not send ground troops.

Today, in addition to some economic improvement, Serbia’s social output value in the Yugoslavia region before the war was approximately 26.59 billion U.S. dollars, with an average per capita of 2,530 U.S. dollars.Serbia's GDP in 2021 is US$463.1 billion (US$9,223 per capita). Its military strength is far inferior to that of Yugoslavia at the time. Serbia has an armed force with 25,000 active troops, 50,000 reserves, 5,000 paramilitary personnel, and only 18,000 troops. NATO has 4,000 troops stationed in Kosovo. Even Serbia, a NATO garrison with advanced military equipment, cannot withstand it, so if Serbia dares to respond with force, it will only attract NATO bombings again.

Not only that, after the independence of Montenegro, Serbia became a completely landlocked country, surrounded by NATO countries and had no relatives. Russia has been trapped in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and cannot extricate itself. China can only look back and sigh. Vucic does not have any capital to challenge NATO, so it will eventually compromise and give in.