The conflict in Ukraine will definitely last until 2023. In which direction will the war develop in the next few months? Can Russia hold on to the occupied territories, and can Ukraine regain its lost ground?
" Wall Street Journal " recently published an article, reporting on six important factors that will affect the course of the war in the first few months of 2023, namely: weather, Bakhmut Fortress, Ukrainian army's offensive, Russian defense, Russian offensive, and activities outside Ukraine. Each one is analyzed below.
1. Weather
In Ukraine, the "mud season" continues, making it difficult for even tracked vehicles to move. Although the temperature has dropped below freezing, it is still not enough to completely freeze the ground. In much of the front line, the pace of action on both sides has actually slowed.
The Wall Street Journal reports that when hard ground appears, the intensity of warfare increases. This could benefit Ukraine, as it has previously demonstrated its ability to maneuver quickly. But on the other hand, the Ukrainian army's deep attack will also make it more difficult to defend its position.
In contrast, the Ukrainian army, which has modern cold-proof equipment provided by Canada and many countries, seems to be better prepared for winter than the Russian army.
In addition, Ukraine's supply lines are shorter and Ukrainian troops move in and out of the front line, allowing them to rest and recuperate. They also seem to be more motivated than the Russian army.
Although the frost is relatively beneficial to the Ukrainian troops on the front line, it will cause difficulties for the rear because Ukraine's energy and heating infrastructure has been severely hit. However, this tactic of the Russians has not brought them substantial help on the battlefield, and attempts to undermine the morale of the Ukrainians will not bring them success.
2. Bachmut Fortress
Russia has been trying to capture Bachmut in the Donetsk area, which not only has strategic significance, but also psychological significance. Pushing back Ukrainian forces would allow them to take higher, more secure positions but would aid Russian propaganda.
This was one of the few areas where the Russian army tried to advance. Although the Ukrainian positions were brutally shelled, the Russian army still had little effect and suffered heavy losses.
Bachmut was of great significance to all three of Moscow 's main characters, and for Tintin, capturing the fortress would allow him to declare that Russia was realizing its claims in the Donetsk region. For the Wagner leader Prigodin, whose mercenaries from the "Wagner" PMK conducted most of the fighting in Bakhmut, this would help confirm that he had always had at his disposal "the best fighting force in the Russian Federation." Also for Ukraine operations commander Sulovitkin, the success of Bakhmut's direction will help him justify Russia's decision to withdraw from and Kherson last month.
According to Nikolay Bereskov, a researcher at the Ukrainian Institute of National Strategic Studies, Russia’s focus on Bakhmut means that military goals are determined by political rather than military factors.
So far most of the fighting in Bakhmut has taken place in the open, and if the fighting moved to urban areas, those most advantaged would be the well-trained Ukrainian infantry and their competent junior commanders, rather than the undertrained "Wagner" PMC fighters and Russian reservists.
3. The Ukrainian Army’s Offensive
Military analysts believe that Ukraine retained most of its strategic initiative in the war after recovering a large area of territory occupied by Russia in the autumn. They believe that Ukraine will hope to continue its offensive during the winter and further repel the Russian army if possible.
According to Bereskov, the timing of the next achievement of the Armed Forces is not critical. "If we have the ability and the opportunity, if the window of opportunity opens in the winter, we will act in the winter; if the spring is suitable, we will wait for the spring to act."
Military analysts have identified two main directions for Ukraine's offensive.The first is to target the line between the cities of Svatov and Kreminna in the Luhansk region, which is adjacent to the important R-66 route. Second, to the cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk in the Zaporozhye region. Success in this direction would cut off key supply and communication lines between Russia and Crimea.
4. Russian Defense
Russia losing part of its territory in the autumn is also a good thing for them, because the current front line is shortened and it is easier to defend. According to Ukrainian estimates, the current confrontation between the two sides has shrunk from about 1,100 kilometers to about 885 kilometers, of which about 386 kilometers are river obstacles. The possible direction of attack by the Ukrainian army is also clear to Russia.
Russian troops are digging extensive trenches to protect the front lines and areas further back, including Crimean beaches, from landings of Ukrainian amphibious troops. As the Russian army brings in more mobilized reservists, its formations will also be deep. However, due to winter, there is no cover on the position. It is easy for Ukraine to discover how many holes the Russian army dug and how many people they placed.
Bereskov said that the breadth of the areas where Russian soldiers are stationed shows that Moscow "is preparing for any possible contingency , but if we carry out detailed planning and finally implement a powerful enough offensive operation, they will not be able to escape."
Military analysts said that in addition to Bakhmut and several other areas, Russia's current strategic goals boil down to not seeking to win, not losing is winning. Michael Clark, a visiting professor of defense studies at King's College London, said Russia still seemed to "want something to happen", such as Western support disappearing over the winter, or U.S. support waning as the Republican Party's influence grew.
Clark said: "But of course, there is also the possibility that something else could happen to make their own situation worse, including the international community weakening the support of Russia's allies."
5. Russia's offensive
Senior Ukrainian officials recently said that Russia is preparing to launch a new major offensive against Ukraine early next year. According to them, this may include launching new attacks from the direction of Belarus to Kiev .
Western analysts are skeptical because the more capable and better prepared troops failed to succeed earlier this year, let alone these newly mobilized reservists. Military analysts believe that the purpose of Ukraine's warning of a new Russian offensive may be: first, to appease the Russian military's inaction so far, and second, to put pressure on Ukraine's Western partners to continue providing weapons, equipment and ammunition to Kiev.
Philips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, expressed doubts about a full-scale attack on Kiev from the direction of Belarus. He said, "It requires planning and concentration, both of which are relatively easy to observe."
6. Activities outside Ukraine
Tintin hopes that Western support for Ukraine will waver, but so far this has not happened. Ukrainian President Zelensky’s visit to Washington in December also showed that the United States will continue to support Ukraine. So far, European governments' support for Ukraine has remained effective even as the world economy weakened due to high energy prices.
The latest U.S. support package includes the placement of the Patriot air defense system, which will help protect Ukrainian energy facilities and other infrastructure from attacks by drones , ballistic missiles , and cruise missiles . The Ukrainian military is currently being trained to use the Patriot, which means it may not be operational until spring.
Beleskov believes that the delivery of the Patriot system represents a paradigm shift for Ukraine's Western backers, who previously only reacted to events on the ground, to now preemptively react in anticipation of ballistic missiles that "Middle East allies" may provide to Russia.
Some Western leaders continue to talk about peace terms.For example, French President Emmanuel Macron said the West should provide security guarantees to Russia as part of any negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
But the Wall Street Journal writes that any such peace talks appear to be a long way off. Zelensky's goal has remained unchanged, that Ukraine regain all the territory it has lost since 2014, while Tintin continues to display undiminished "ambition" and paint the war as part of an ongoing struggle between Russia and the West.
7. How will the war in Ukraine evolve?
According to Ukrainian media reports, Serhiy Krivonos, a general of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and former deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council, said that Ukraine needs to prepare for a protracted war. He stressed that the war would not end in February or March 2023 and urged not to underestimate the enemy's capabilities.
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that the war in Ukraine will continue in 2023 and will not end easily. He emphasized that Türkiye insists on the ceasefire, at least for humanitarian purposes, and then we can seek a permanent ceasefire and peace negotiations.
But the head of the General Intelligence Service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Budanov predicted that the operation in Ukraine should end in the summer of 2023 and that the Ukrainian armed forces will return to the 1991 borders. After the end of the war in Ukraine, the current Russian Federation will undergo very serious changes.
Former U.S. Army commander Ben Hodges also believes that although the counterattack speed of the Ukrainian armed forces in various areas on the front line has slowed down, Ukraine will be completely lifted from the occupation by the summer of 2023. He firmly believes that Ukraine will regain all its territory, including Crimea.
At the same time, the Counter-Disinformation Center of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine pointed out that the Kremlin is preparing the Russian people for a full-scale war in Ukraine. Therefore, Tintin stated on the Russian propaganda channel that "Russia is acting in the right direction and safeguarding its national interests." He declared very confidently that "99.9% of Russians are ready to give everything for their motherland."
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