With Russia launching a "special military operation" at the end of February 2022, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a huge impact on the entire international situation. So it has been 10 months since the Russia-Ukraine conflict started. What has this war brought to Russia and the world?
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Russia
Judging from the current situation, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Russia is basically negative. Russia now faces Western sanctions and blockades, growing domestic anti-war sentiment, and continuous bloodletting during the war. Even if Russia wins the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia will face a long-term security war after that. Ukraine will be a huge burden for Russia.
From Russia's perspective, the most likely scenario for Russia to benefit from starting this war is to force Ukraine to surrender and establish a pro-Russian government in the early stages of the war.
But there are too many uncertainties in this situation. First of all, how far will Russia have to fight the war to make the current Zelenskiy government surrender?
Secondly, Ukraine, as a country with a land area of more than 600,000 square kilometers, has great strategic depth, which makes it difficult for Russia to fight.
Therefore, considering various possibilities, it was obviously irrational for Russia to send troops to Ukraine. Since the risks of this war outweigh the benefits for Russia as a country, the problem is likely to lie with interest groups within Russia.
When many people see problems in other countries, they always regard the entire country as a whole. However, a country cannot have only one political group. Even in an extremely centralized monarchy, there will still be problems of party struggle. The political situation in Russia is actually more chaotic than many people imagine.
Russia is a country with economic oligarchs, extreme conservatives, and even royalists. Its political ecology is as chaotic as that of the United States, so the country's power struggle must be fierce and long-term. According to the Russian Constitution formulated when the Soviet Union collapsed, the Russian president can serve up to two terms, with one term lasting four years. The fact that the current leader of Russia Putin has been the president of Russia for more than 20 years is obviously the result of Russia's internal political struggle.
Putin has been able to be the president of Russia for such a long time, largely because of the "political assets" of the Chechen War . But assets will be used up. When Russia's internal political situation becomes chaotic again, it will become increasingly difficult for Putin to continue to be re-elected as president. This is obviously not good news for the political group that supports Putin.
The impact of a war on Russia's political situation at this time cannot be ignored. Russia happened to amend its constitution in April 2022, and Putin can be president until 2036. Therefore, it is difficult to say that there is no relationship between the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Russia's political situation.
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the world and the United States
For the world, this Russia-Ukraine conflict challenged the U.S.-centered world system established after the end of the Cold War , and was a big blow to the United States. In this war, the United States is selling natural gas at high prices, absorbing the lost manufacturing industry in Europe, and is also raising interest rates in and harvesting the world in . It seems that it has made a lot of money through this Russia-Ukraine conflict.
But this is just an appearance. Since the end of the Cold War, the most important thing about the United States is the United States-centered world system it has established. Through this system, the United States can serve as the "world police", sell dollars to the world, and control most of the world's industrial raw material markets.
The United States has always been excessively exploiting the world to seek its own interests. Many countries have long been miserable with the United States. Due to the status and force of the United States as the "world police", few countries dare to resist.
But things are different now. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is equivalent to Russia’s open challenge to the US-centered world system. This has made many third world countries realize that the United States does not seem to be invincible.
Now the United States is sucking the blood of Europe and has gained a wave of benefits, but it has also lost a lot.The most obvious one is the right to speak. In the past, the United States had no say but now it is difficult for the United States to allow Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production. Therefore, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States' control over the world will become weaker and weaker, and Europe and even South America will gradually escape from the control of the United States.
In fact, this trend can already be seen now. In addition to the Middle East refusing to increase oil production in accordance with the wishes of the United States, Europe has also begun to see the rise of nationalism and even populist ideas.
This means that Europe's future political direction will gradually shift to protecting its own national interests, rather than following the current universal values of the United States. Of course, this will inevitably lead to the weakening of the role of and EU and the division of Europe.
In addition, a similar situation has occurred in South America. For example, Brazil elected left-wing leader Lula in the 2022 general election, which is also a manifestation of the rise of left-wing forces in South America. South American left-wing forces are anti-junta and anti-foreign capital, and these two things have always been the most common means used by the United States to control South America.
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on China
For China, this Russia-Ukraine conflict has advantages and disadvantages. The disadvantage is that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has accelerated the pace of de-globalization to a great extent. For a country like China that relies on globalization and the global market to make a living, this war will obviously have a huge economic impact on our country. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, many people said that foreign trade was difficult to do, and this is the reason.
There are two main advantages. One is that it allows the United States to focus more on the Ukrainian battlefield and helps China share the pressure. After the United States withdraws its troops from Afghanistan in 2020, it plans to engage in a rebalancing strategy in the Asia-Pacific in an attempt to contain China militarily. But once the Russia-Ukraine conflict started, the United States had to invest a lot of resources and military power into the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, and it could only postpone its containment plan against China.
The second is to allow our country to cooperate with Central Asia. The bunch of countries in Central Asia are deeply controlled by Russia. If our country wants to compete with the United States and become a truly world-class country, it must integrate Eurasia . However, Russia is stuck in Central Asia, and various cooperation between my country and Central Asia has been unable to unfold, and the integration of the Eurasian continent cannot be discussed.
Now that Russia is stuck in the quagmire of the Ukrainian battlefield and has little energy to manage Central Asia, our country has naturally opened up cooperation with Central Asian countries. Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict plays an extremely important role in my country's construction of the Belt and Road system and the integration of Eurasia.
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