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In 2015, in a military interview program, the highly respected "Court Officer" Zhang Zhaozhong said this when asked about the gap in military strength between China and the United States. He said:
"China's military strength is about to surpass the United States? Don't be misled. We will not catch up with it for another 20 years!"
Zhang Zhaozhong did not think that what he said was wrong, but this sentence suddenly caused controversy among domestic netizens. Some people think that Zhang Zhaozhong is "deprecating himself" and does not recognize China's current development speed at all. Some people think that Zhang Zhaozhong is right. The gap in military strength between China and the United States is still very large, and the chance of winning once China fights is almost zero.
For this reason, the Internet was a quarrel, and everyone had their own opinions and no one could convince anyone.
So what's going on? What is the real situation, what considerations did Zhang Zhaozhong make based on? Does he have the qualifications and vision to evaluate China's military strength? Is China really not likely to win once the war begins?
"Warhushi" Director
In fact, when he heard this statement, most netizens thought of the first thing they said was that "Warhushi has opened again", believing that Zhang Zhaozhong's move seemed to be showing his weakness to the enemy, making the United States relax its vigilance against China.
It’s no wonder that everyone thinks so. After all, General Zhang Zhaozhong is famous, and the position of “Chief of the War Bureau” is not for nothing.
"Warning the War" (Strategic Fooling) is a joke among the majority of military fans, that is, to deceive the outside world strategically and make the outside world have a wrong understanding of China's strategy, tactics, and military strength. So why can Zhang Zhaozhong "take on this great task"?
It turns out that this all comes from Zhang Zhaozhong's "accurate prediction" of the world military incident. In 1992, as a guest invited, Zhang Zhaozhong participated in a military interview program called " Military World ". After that, he became a frequent guest of this type of program. When participating in the program, he would predict the situation in hot areas based on his own opinions and current situation. However, the accuracy of this prediction is easy to make people wonder if he did it on purpose.
Give the most famous example. In the early stages of Iraq War in 2003, Zhang Zhaozhong made two predictions about the war situation in a program. One is about the US military's combat method:
"I think the US military will first use the firepower advantages of the air force and navy to carry out "floor-scrubbing bombing" as before, and then send Marines, Army, and mechanized troops to participate in the war."
The second is about the results and directions of the war:
"According to the comparison of military strength between the United States and Iraq, Iraqi will definitely not win, but as long as you resist and defend to the death, the US military will not be so easy to win."
As a result, after the war began, everyone did not expect that Zhang Zhaozhong's two predictions were all wrong. The US military not only landed on the ground at the first time, but also used its technological advantages to fight the Iraqi army, and the war did not evolve into the "modern version of the Kursk Battle" he expected. In just 43 days, the Iraqi army was severely damaged, and even Saddam was captured alive.
Also, regarding other wars, Zhang Zhaozhong's predictions were also "outrageous". During the Libyan War, he once promised, " Gaddafi is not easy to fight, he can drag the United States into the quagmire." As a result, Gaddafi went to see God in less than half a year; on the Crimea issue, he swore that Russia would not stare at this corner of Crimea, but turned around and fought.
Isn’t this pure reverse prediction? Zhang Zhaozhong's remarks also caused controversy in the country, but the controversy soon disappeared, for no other reason, just because the Chinese people were used to it, and they also found that Zhang Zhaozhong's mispredictions and remarks were deliberate moves!
For example, on military sensitive issues, Zhang Zhaozhonghui used the method of avoiding the important and belittled himself and praising others to create illusions for the outside world. In terms of military development, many of his views were also adopted by Western countries . For example, kelp can wrap submarine , causing submarine failure, smog weather can prevent laser weapon , etc., which caused the other party to spend a lot of time, energy and money to study, but the result was a waste of water.
Of course, it was not until this time that the Chinese people discovered that Zhang Zhaozhong's wrong statements were originally intended. Over time, they gave a love name for this general who "relying on deception" to protect the national interests, namely "Director of the War Hu Bureau".
But although General Zhang Zhaozhong often laughs at his own statements, in fact, he is a helpless move. After all, as a veteran, he knows too much about China's backwardness and how powerful the United States is.
The helpless move of veteran
In 1952, Zhang Zhaozhong was born in a poor family in Yanshan County, Cangzhou City, Hebei Province. Unlike many people’s speculation, his parents were not a general, and neither of them even had a military career. They were just ordinary farmers facing the loess and backs to the sky. They relied on their strength to make a living, but they could only live a hard life of having a meal but not having the next meal.
Grown in such a family, Zhang Zhaozhong's childhood life was bleak, and his fate seemed to have been destined, that is, his son inherited his father's business and worked in the land to farm and stayed in this small mountain village all his life.
However, the actual situation is not the case. Since he became sensible, Zhang Zhaozhong's ambition has been very lofty. He wants to change his destiny and walk out of the mountains, and he wants to let his parents and family live a good life. The solution he came up with was also very simple, that is, join the army, which can not only improve life but also protect the country and be respected by others. Why not do it?
Since he had the direction, Zhang Zhaozhong has been working hard for it. After graduating from high school, he directly chose to join the army. With his excellent grades and excellent physical fitness, he entered the South China Sea Navy that all Chinese men were fascinated by.
As a northern man, Zhang Zhaozhong said it was fake that he was not uncomfortable when he got on the ship. He almost vomited all his bitter galls when he was severely seasick every day. Faced with this situation, the army leader suggested that he leave the navy and go to the army to continue training, but Zhang Zhaozhong did not agree to this. He chose to continue to persist. In his own words, it is:
"What's the matter with vomiting, you will get used to it when you vomit!"
The actual situation is the same. The four-year naval career has forced Zhang Zhaozhong to train a "iron stomach", and his training results have gradually changed from the original countdown to the top in the army.
Who doesn’t love such a young talent who can endure hardships and persevere? So in the fourth year of joining the army, the army leaders who had high hopes for him gave Zhang Zhaozhong an opportunity to go to Peking University to study Arabic .
Of course, Zhang Zhaozhong did not disappoint the leaders' expectations. After entering the school, he moved the style of the army to the school and started learning with the intensity of military training.
The emperor pays off. With the hard work day and night, Zhang Zhaozhong soon graduated successfully with the top score and got an internship in Iraq as a translator. It was not until the outbreak of and the Iran-Iraq War broke out, and the superiors transferred it back to the country for safety reasons.
At that time, there were only a handful of officers and soldiers in China who had a history of studying abroad. Therefore, after careful consideration, the organization did not transfer Zhang Zhaozhong back to the army, but instead handed him an important task, that is, to study military theory, especially the theoretical research aimed at the United States, the world's largest military power.
The reason is very simple. You should know that the decline of the Soviet Union at that time was already revealed. Anyone with a discerning eye knew that this red behemoth was not long. Once it fell, the honeymoon period between China and the United States would end. Not only did the two countries end, but it was also very likely to turn against each other. Therefore, according to this general environment, many Chinese people began to study this "imaginary enemy", and Zhang Zhaozhong was naturally no exception.
In order to study the United States, Zhang Zhaozhong first taught himself English and Japanese, and then wrote many professional articles. His sharp but objective comments quickly gained the favor of his superiors, and he gradually stepped behind the scenes and entered major military programs to officially start his military comment career.
From 1992 to 1999, in just seven years, Zhang Zhaozhong has grown into a well-known military expert at home and abroad. Some of his "normal" predictions are also very accurate. For example, in 1998, he was invited to participate in a program analyzing the world situation and made three divine prophecies, namely, the Iraq War will continue, the war will break out in in Kosovo region, and India will make major moves in the fields of nuclear weapons and missiles.
At that time, countries around the world were not concerned about Zhang Zhaozhong's predictions, but just a year later, people were surprised to find that he was right!
A voice of praise was overwhelming for a moment. Even some people who were not interested in military affairs knew Zhang Zhaozhong's name. However, Zhang Zhaozhong was not happy at this time, because in the wars that occurred during that period, he truly witnessed the terror of the United States and also realized the gap between China and the United States.
is not just Zhang Zhaozhong. Through Gulf War , many military fans were shocked by the US military's weapons and combat methods. Their stealth bomber , their information warfare, their sea, land and air combat, were like a big slap that woke the whole world directly, which made us feel cold.
You should know that before this, most people were still very confident about China's military strength, believing that Chinese Army is invincible in the world. Not to mention the US military, even if all countries around the world join together, our People's Liberation Army is not panicked at all. Therefore, after the "Galaxy Incident" and "Bombing of the Embassy in Yugoslavia", a large number of "pro-war factions" appeared in China, hoping to make Americans have a higher memory through force.
But now think about it, can our army be better than the bomber , which is invisible and without a trace? No matter how many of our people are, can we swim to fight the huge fleet of the US military? So if the fight really started at that time, there would be only one outcome, that is, our country's all-round defeat.
So since the gap is so big, what should we do?
Few people in China can provide specific solutions to this, except for Zhang Zhaozhong. Not only did he think about it and put in practice, the final result was surprisingly good, and his method was the famous "strategic fool". In fact, Zhang Zhaozhong had thought of this method of
, but the first time he put it into practice was after the 9/11 incident.
At that time, the United States, which had suffered heavy losses, devoted all its energy to anti-terrorism operations. This was really good news for China. The shift of the United States' strategic focus gave us sufficient time to develop and gave us the opportunity to catch up with them. Therefore, in order to "make a fortune in silence" and to prevent the United States from conscious of the progress of China's military power, Zhang Zhaozhong's "deception" plan quickly unfolded.
Zhang Zhaozhong began to use his identity as a military commentator and frequently appeared in major military columns. His remarks in the program were surprisingly unified, that is, while showing the enemy as weak, while advocating the strength of the United States. For example, he once said that China's aircraft carrier cannot use electromagnetic catapult technology , and he has always been pessimistic about China's fighter jets, believing that China's fourth-generation fighter jets and stealth fighter jets have "a long way to go" in research, and that it is impossible to make progress in 20 or 30 years.
Zhang Zhaozhong's words are sincere and sincere, and they are very good-looking. Even many Chinese people have been fooled, and they are extremely pessimistic about the military power between China and the United States, and they cannot be compared with it in a short period of time.
Chinese believe it, let alone Americans. Through General Zhang Zhaozhong's "introduction", they firmly believed for a long time that the gap between China and the United States was like a cloud of difference, and felt that China was not worthy of being the enemy of the United States. This view continued until after 2010, and it was not until this time that the Americans realized that they had been fooled!
is still defeated by the United States?
In 2010, China surpassed Japan and officially became the world's second largest economy. In 2011, China's fourth-generation stealth fighter J-20 successfully tested, China's first aircraft carrier Liaoning ship was launched in 2012, the second Shandong ship was launched in 2019, and the third Fujian ship was launched in 2022. According to rumors, the fourth ship has also been put on the agenda.
In addition to this, various advanced weapons and equipment, and design concepts that far exceed the United States also emerged like mushrooms after a rain. The growth rate of China's military power is simply outrageous.
Seeing this situation, Americans were stunned. Didn’t they say they would not be able to catch up with us for twenty years? Why did you catch up to this level in less than ten years? It was not until this time that they realized that General Zhang Zhaozhong was a "liar" and he missed the best opportunity to encircle China!
Of course, because of this, with the growth of China's military strength, a different voice appeared in China, namely, the remarks of "China's military strength has caught up with the United States, and we can already compete with the Americans."
I believe many people will agree with this and feel that the gap between China and the United States is indeed narrowing. It is still okay to surpass it and play 55, but is this really the case?
The answer is naturally no. Just as General Zhang Zhaozhong said, don’t be misled. The gap in military strength between China and the United States is still very large, and it is impossible to catch up without twenty years.
This time, General Zhang Zhaozhong did not fool him, but explained a cruel fact. As for his statement, he was also very sufficient. If he didn't believe it, we would use data to speak.
First of all, it is the navy. The navy has the biggest gap between China and the United States. As of now, China has only three aircraft carriers launched, namely the Liaoning ship, the Shandong ship, and the Fujian ship. There are about 300 other types of warships, , and what about the US military? Although their total number of ships, ships, is less than that of China, with only about 280 ships, its quality is far greater than that of my country.
According to statistics, there are currently 11 aircraft carriers in the US Navy , and all of these 11 are nuclear powered! If a war breaks out, the aircraft carrier formations composed of 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers can easily crush us, not to mention that the US military also has various advanced destroyers , cruiser and anti-submarine ships.
When it comes to anti-submarine ships, they naturally have to mention another killer of the navy, that is, the nuclear submarine . In terms of nuclear submarines, China has a total of 27 active nuclear submarines, including strategic nuclear submarine
In contrast, the United States not only owns 71 nuclear-powered submarines, but the US military's submarine technology is also the world's number one existence. Such a gap has completely lost the initiative regardless of sea and Shanghai, and it is just a matter of waters near China. If it leaves the island chain and enters the Eastern Pacific, it is completely a dead end.
is followed by the Air Force. As of this year, my country's military aircraft has a total of more than 2,500 in service, including more than 1,700 fighter aircraft, and other types of bombers, early warning aircraft, and , and logistics support aircraft. This number seems to be quite a lot, but compared with the United States, it is a terrible thing.
According to data provided by the US military, the total number of military aircraft in the United States is still in service is as high as 10,000. This is still in service. The number of reserves and hidden behind the scenes has not been counted. Once a war occurs, there will definitely be more.
is not only the leading quantity, but objectively speaking, the quality of the US military aircraft is also stronger than China. The performance of the US military's F-35, F-22, B-2 and other military aircraft are all the best in the world and are unmatched by China in a short period of time.
quantity and quality are not as good as
, but how can you master air superiority ? If you can't control air supremacy, how can you fight this modern war?
Finally, it is the army. The army is obviously the most dominant military force in the comparison between my country and the United States. Not only does my country far surpass the United States in terms of military number, it also has hundreds of millions of reserves. Most importantly, China still has a broad strategic depth. Therefore, in the eyes of many people, if the war occurs on the ground, China will not be afraid of anyone.
So is this really the case? Although
cannot be said to be negative, it is not as beautiful as everyone thinks. The reason is very simple, because the role of the army has been significantly weakened in modern warfare. Even wars that take place on land do not rely on simple passion, but various advanced weapons and equipment, combat concepts and sufficient logistical support. The United States is still slightly ahead in this regard.
Therefore, overall, the gap between China and the United States is quite large, as big as General Zhang Zhaozhong said, it will not be able to catch up without twenty years, but everyone does not need to be too pessimistic. After all, we still have time. In the next twenty years, the vast majority of Chinese military and civilians only need to follow the steps and develop at the previous speed. I believe that the day when you catch up with the United States will not be too far away.
Do you think what I said is right? Welcome to discuss in the comment section.
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