[Editor's Note] This article is authorized by the author himself, and is exclusively published by Qin'an Strategy Headline Account, reprinted from the official account "Kujian Intelligence and Foreign Affairs". Author Wang Gaigai, founder and president of GDYT, a major diplomatic think tank in , and leader of the national youth think tank in international relations .
Recently, US think tank published a series of views, believing that the United States should adjust its weapons assistance policy to Taiwan. Given the lessons of the Ukrainian war, the United States has indeed begun to change its policy toward Taiwan, and is transforming each previous time from Congress to a one-time bill approval, and increasing the number of weapons sold through a low-key and continuous approach.
The first politician to propose changing weapons aid to Taiwan was former US national security adviser O'Brien. In 2020, he said that the United States should export weapons to Taiwan more continuously and turn Taiwan into a " porcupine ", the reason is that "little people usually do not eat porcupines."
Recently, U.S. officials claimed that the United States is stepping up efforts to build a large reserve of weapons in Taiwan. Once the PLA in mainland China tries to liberate Taiwan Island, the United States should ensure that Taiwan has enough weapons to hold on until a few days or months later the United States and its allies have the ability to intervene. U.S. officials are trying to assess what measures can deter mainland China without triggering larger military operations.
U.S. officials believe that the Ukrainian war has taught the United States a lesson. The United States should provide Taiwan with sufficient weapons as soon as possible, rather than wait until the war breaks out before being "stretched". U.S. officials acknowledged that "once a war breaks out, the amount of supplies needed may be huge. Although it may be possible, it will be difficult to transport these supplies."
However, the analysis of the "New York Times " believes that efforts to turn Taiwan into an arsenal may face challenges. The United States and its allies prioritize the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, and inventories in these countries are declining, and weapons manufacturers are reluctant to open new production lines “without a steady stream of long-term orders.”
Change the type of weapons aid to Taiwan
In addition, some analysts believe that US officials are determining the number and types of weapons sold to Taiwan, and recommend that Taiwanese officials choose more, smaller and more flexible weapons to facilitate the delivery of weapons to Taiwan. U.S. officials are also discussing how to simplify sales and delivery processes, rather than alerting mainland China every time, as before.
However, the United States continues to deliver weapons to Taiwan and is also facing difficulties. The United States cannot provide Taiwan with resupply as easily as it is for Ukraine due to the lack of ground routes for transport from neighboring countries. Officials say the goal now is to ensure Taiwan has enough weapons to defend itself. Former Taiwan military officials also believe that Taiwan needs "a large number of small arms" to conduct distributed defense.
U.S. officials stressed that Taiwan needs smaller and more mobile weapons that can cause fatal blows to Chinese warships and fighter jets, while avoiding attacks and avoiding attacks as soon as the war begins. This is crucial to the so-called asymmetric warfare. According to Ukraine's experience, shoulder-mounted weapons such as "javelin" and "stinger" as well as Himas rocket launcher have been tested in practice, so they can become the first choice for weapons sold in Taiwan.
Recently, Pentagon and State Council officials made requests to the arms company. The Pentagon is helping Taiwan establish an "island defense system to fight mainland China with conventional power advantages." They believe that Taiwan needs "a large number of small arms" for distributed defense, and some of the " Harpoon " and "stinger" missiles purchased by Taiwan recently met this requirement.
Taiwanese officials believe that if the United States successfully supports Ukraine to win the war, the remaining weapons that the United States aided Ukraine may be transferred directly to Taiwan, and Taiwan can be prepared to transport these weapons to Taiwan. Aides to Taiwan's leader Tsai Ing-wen said they acknowledged the need to stockpile small arms, but the current situation is still in short supply.Taiwan’s “representative to the United States” Xiao Meiqin suggested that the US Congress pass a one-time bill to continue to provide weapons assistance to Taiwan in the next few years.
Zakaria, a well-known American current affairs critic and editor-in-chief of Time magazine, believes that Russia's situation is crucial to China's interests. Once Russia's power is weakened, China's interests will be affected. If Putin survives, China can withstand the impact from the West. He Tianmu, senior international security researcher at Rand Company, believes that China and Russia are in a relationship of cold teeth. Russia's unfavorable situation in the war will make it more dependent on China, which will also weaken China's status relative to the West.
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Department of Defense Cole believes that the Russian-Ukrainian war has learned a lesson for China. If mainland China wants to effectively solve the Taiwan issue, it must adopt an unexpected sudden attack and use overwhelming force in a short period of time, otherwise it will fall into a dilemma similar to Russia in Ukraine.
Two ways to deter mainland China through "TSMC"
US think tanks believe that "TSMC" can play a dual deterrent role against mainland China, and can be achieved in two ways.
The first type is to allow Taiwan to produce advanced chips and allow mainland China to profit from it. In this way, mainland China will be afraid of the attack. Once the war breaks out, "TSMC" will be at risk of being burned, making mainland China afraid to launch an attack rashly.
Another is that the United States makes plans in advance and has the ability to destroy TSMC when necessary. Doing so can also effectively prevent mainland China from launching an offensive.
A source told Bloomberg that if the worst happens, the United States even considers evacuating Taiwanese senior chip engineers directly. No matter how the United States supports the Taiwan authorities, the United States must enhance its domestic chip research and development and production capabilities. For national interests, the United States should not allow the chip industry to be too concentrated on Taiwan Island .
US think tanks suggest that the U.S. government can force TSMC to simultaneously launch the latest chip manufacturing process in the United States and Taiwan by threatening export controls on chip design software and manufacturing equipment, and ultimately copy its technology to the United States.
Bloomberg said that one of the emergency plans formulated by the United States for TSMC is to clearly tell mainland China that if mainland China tries to capture Taiwan, the United States will destroy TSMC's facilities in Taiwan to deter the Chinese military's actions, or allow the People's Liberation Army to capture Taiwan without chip facilities.
The best time for mainland China to attack Taiwan
The time schedule for mainland China to attack Taiwan by force is even more diverse. Sun Yun, director of the China Project at the Stimson Center, US think tank, believes that the earliest prediction is that the mainland will attack Taiwan by force in 2027, but more analysts believe that the date of attacking Taiwan may be in 2035 or 2049, which is not far from us.
The uncertainty of the Taiwan issue comes from two major factors. First, the evolution of the United States' policy toward Taiwan. The U.S. policy community has been vague about abandoning its strategy and even giving up its one-China policy. For the foreseeable future, it will be difficult for the US policy to maintain the current status quo. After experiencing changes in policy attitudes towards Taiwan over the past few years, this change will eventually lead to substantial changes in the connotation of the policy.
In addition, Taiwan's next leader may adopt more radical policies on issues such as Taiwan's status.
In fact, many Chinese experts believe that the United States is adopting a strategy similar to the previous stimulus of Russia on the Ukraine issue on the Taiwan issue. If the United States can force China to use force, it will achieve the goal of undermining China's rise. In their opinion, China must avoid falling into this trap.
However, some people believe that given the lessons learned by Russia, mainland China should resolve the Taiwan issue as soon as possible.For example, looking back now, Russia should have punished Ukraine immediately during the 2004 Ukrainian Orange Revolution, when Russia will more easily achieve its strategic goals. Since the United States is adjusting its weapons sales policy in Taiwan, mainland China should not continue to wait, as it will change later.
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