After Pelosi visited Taiwan on , , mainland China held a massive live-fire training around the Taiwan Strait. During this period, the People's Liberation Army demonstrated its three-dimensional sea and air blockade capabilities on Taiwan Island . After that, Western media and observers, including the United States, began to enthusiastically discuss the ability of mainland China to blockade the Taiwan Strait during wartime and whether the US military has the ability to break the People's Liberation Army's blockade in the Taiwan Strait.
. Just recently, the US " New York Times " quoted Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Navy's Pacific Fleet, saying that if the People's Liberation Army really launched a blockade on the Taiwan Strait during the war, the US military is fully capable of breaking this blockade.
U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo, Admiral
U.S. media said that the United States currently hopes to break through the PLA's sea and air blockade during wartime and provide supplies to the Taiwan authorities by means of sea or air transportation. However, if conditions permit, the United States will try to avoid direct military conflicts with the People's Liberation Army. One of the suggestions is that the United States will carry out air transportation and resupply from Japan and Guam to airports on the east coast of Taiwan Island. The advantage of this approach is that the PLA's fighter cannot intercept the US air route without flying over Taiwan Island, so that the US can continue to provide the Taiwan authorities with corresponding military aid without having direct military conflicts with China.
But this proposal is not reliable because the People's Liberation Army also has aircraft carrier troops in addition to fighter jets. After the USS Fujian aircraft carrier was officially put into service and had complete combat capabilities, the Chinese Navy could deploy an aircraft carrier battle group in the northern, southern and eastern Taiwan Island during wartime. If necessary, the Chinese Navy's carrier-based aircraft is fully capable of intercepting US aircraft that attempt to break through the blockade line.
This plan is not very outrageous. There is another suggestion, which is that the United States can call on NATO member states and Japan to dispatch dozens or hundreds of warships to escort the surface fleet, and then openly break into the People's Liberation Army's Taiwan Strait blockade line to transport various military aid materials to the Taiwan authorities. The basis of this suggestion is to bet that China will not dare to turn against NATO and Japan due to the Taiwan Strait issue. Of course, people with this kind of thinking can be said to be very naive.
U.S. defense adviser Eric Wertheim said: "The amount of materials that may be needed in the war is daunting. It may be difficult to transport them over, but it is still feasible. The key to the question is, how much risk China and White House are willing to take in implementing or breaking the blockade, and can it last for a long time? "
0 This question is actually very easy to answer, that is, in this matter, China is more willing and capable than the United States. From the perspective of national interests, the Taiwan Strait issue belongs to China's internal affairs. On this issue, economic factors are not our top priority. Recovering Taiwan and completing the great cause of reunification of the motherland is our primary goal. But for the United States, the Taiwan Strait issue is just a means of check and balance. If the United States fights against China on the Taiwan Strait issue, the United States will lose its ability to act in other hot spots around the world.
In other words, the United States needs to take into account too many areas, so the Taiwan Strait issue is not worth the United States' investment in too much time and energy.
US Admiral Harris said: "Biden President has said four times that we will defend Taiwan, but every time he says this, someone will clarify and denie the rumors. I think this makes us seem weak as a country because who is hosting the show? I mean, is it the president or his adviser? "So maybe we should believe his words."
Admiral Harris's questions actually show the current ambivalence of the United States towards the Taiwan Strait issue in China. For US President Biden, because American voters do not like a "weak US president."Therefore, Biden must maintain a so-called "hard attitude" on the Taiwan Strait issue. But for the US government, it should not be a flip against mainland China because of the Taiwan Strait issue. Moreover, the Taiwan Strait issue is not worthy of a complete reversal between the United States and China. Therefore, the US government had to come forward to explain after every time Biden "hard" he was "hard".
Admiral Samuel Papalo, commander of the U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet, said: "China undoubtedly has the "number of ships and maritime capabilities required to implement the blockade." However, Samuel Papalo believes that the US military has a clear advantage over the PLA in firepower and other "key areas", so the US military still has the strength to break through the PLA's blockade line in the Taiwan Strait .
However, after Samuel Papalo made the above statement, an official from the US Department of Defense said that if the PLA did not set up a blockade line in the Taiwan Strait, it announced the establishment of the banned navigation zone . The three-dimensional sea and air blockade operation in the name of the prohibited navigation zone will make the US military more difficult to operate. Because if the US military forcefully breaks into the PLA's prohibited navigation zone, it will give the excuse of provoking and is easily subject to strong counterattack from the PLA.
As the title of this report in the New York Times, the United States is trying to turn Taiwan, China into a "giant arsenal." However, Taiwan Island itself does not have any decent depth. After being cut off from external contact channels, the military-industrial enterprise under the control of the Taiwan authorities has lost the ability to produce large-scale weapons and equipment and ammunition during wartime. Therefore, whether it can provide military aid to the Taiwan authorities during wartime has become a very concerning issue for the United States.
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At the beginning, the United States will try its best to avoid direct military conflicts with mainland China to avoid major losses in the Taiwan Strait issue. The ideal situation is that like the current Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, the United States only provides military aid and intelligence support to fight a "agent war". However, this goal is obviously unrealistic for the United States. If the United States really intends to aid the Taiwan authorities during wartime, there will inevitably be a risk of a direct military conflict with the People's Liberation Army.
As for the US Navy's Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of the US Navy's Pacific Fleet, the US military said that the US military is stronger than the People's Liberation Army, just listen to it, because in recent years, the US military in the Asia-Pacific There are two key points of the research. One is how to avoid the PLA's dense long-range firepower during wartime, and the other is how to strengthen the US military's projected firepower in the Asia-Pacific region. If the US military now really has stronger firepower than the PLA as Admiral Samuel Paparo said, the US military in Asia-Pacific will not have to busy meetings and discuss tactics every day.
Taiwan Strait combat is home battle for the PLA, in this case, the US military cannot have stronger firepower than the PLA. And if the war lasts longer, the more obvious the defects in firepower and logistics supply will be.
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