In the history of the global aviation industry for more than 100 years, it is rare to encounter a year like 2020. After the civil aviation industry has continued to vigorously develop for many years, the new crown epidemic is like a sudden "black swan" flying to the earth. Under its black wings, the connection between people was forced to be interrupted... and the civil aviation industry was on the "front line" of the epidemic.
In the past year, the global civil aviation industry has been "surviving desperately". Some mature aircraft or models that are still in gestation can survive and continue to develop under optimistic market expectations. Now, because of cash The resources of all parties such as flow cannot be supported, and they are suddenly faced with uncertain prospects.
What are the characteristics and history of these obscure aircraft projects?
Airbus A380: Farewell, the Big Mac
On December 5, Emirates took delivery of its 116th Airbus A380 aircraft, and will receive another two Airbus A380s in late December. As the largest customer of Airbus A380, Emirates maintains the world's largest A380 fleet. But the "destiny" of the Airbus A380 will not change because Emirates is still receiving aircraft. The
four-engine dual-aisle large passenger aircraft project is a bold decision made by Airbus for the civil aviation market after witnessing the successful experience of the Boeing 747. Entering the year 2000, Airbus estimated that around 1,200 large passenger aircraft would be needed worldwide, so on December 19, 2000, Airbus announced that it would invest US$10.7 billion to launch the A380 project.
However, contrary to Airbus's market expectations, the A380 has been plagued by problems such as under-utilization and unprofitability since it was put into use. As the world’s largest passenger aircraft currently operating regularly, even though it has the title of “Super Jumbo” and has successfully attracted the attention of ordinary passengers who had no in-depth knowledge of aircraft models in the past, the Airbus A380 The order of 750 aircraft still has not reached the scale of 750 that Airbus originally envisioned. Obviously, the reasons behind this are very complicated. Factors such as falling fuel prices, increasing global airports, increasing "point-to-point" routes, and saturation of large hub airports have all affected this. Airlines operating Airbus A380 routes are also plagued by practical factors such as dissatisfaction, short routes, high maintenance and operating costs. Therefore, once the new crown epidemic is encountered, Airbus A380 will become the first choice for airlines to ground...
So at the beginning of this year, Airbus announced on its official website that it considered that there were not enough A380 follow-up orders to support the continued operation of the A380 production line. , Airbus will deliver the last A380 in 2021 and close the A380 production line afterwards.
Of course, with more than 200 A380s in the world, we will still see A380s flying in the sky for some time to come.
At least for now, Emirates has resumed using A380 to operate routes from Dubai to Paris, London, Guangzhou, Moscow and other destinations, and has become a cargo charter flight on multiple routes to fight the epidemic side by side with us.
Japan SpaceJet: Twists and turns, finally frozen
In October 2020, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries announced its mid-term business plan for 2020, announcing: "The development of the SpaceJet M90 model is temporarily terminated; the evidence collection work will continue. During this time, efforts will be made to improve the business. The environment can be restored.” Around 2000, based on the judgment of the global regional passenger aircraft market, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry decided to enter the regional passenger aircraft market.
is the first jet airliner developed in Japan. The SpaceJet project (formerly known as "Mitsubishi Regional Jet", Mitsubishi Regional Jet) was officially launched in March 2008. The original plan was to deliver the first MRJ90 aircraft in 2013. However, due to various reasons, SpaceJet's R&D and market roads are "long-term", and R&D costs have been rising all the way. Even after several delays, the first flight was finally successful in 2015, but as the test flight continued, the aircraft also exposed more and more problems. More than 900 modifications made Mitsubishi Aircraft, which lacked passenger aircraft development experience, struggled to cope.
By the beginning of 2020, the total cost of the SpaceJet project is close to 100 billion yen, which is the beginning of the projectThe estimated cost is nearly 20 times.
is also at this time, the new crown epidemic has arrived. Affected by this, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries continued to decline in revenue and could not continue to "transfusion" for SpaceJet; and the forensic work carried out in the United States since the beginning of the year has been indefinitely due to the work stoppage caused by the epidemic...
In this context, Mitsubishi finally made up its mind to substantially suspend the development of the SpaceJet project. And will such a "pause" have a day of restart?
may need an appropriate historical opportunity, and may need the conditions of "the right time, the right place and the people"... In short, restarting again will definitely be more difficult than the initial project.
In the future, will the world still need Boeing 777X?
's decision to start the development of Boeing 777X is a decision made by Boeing in response to the competition of Airbus A350.
In 2013, Boeing launched the sales of the 777X aircraft and announced that the first 777X will fly for the first time in June 2019 and deliveries will begin in 2020. According to Boeing’s propaganda: “This will be the world’s largest and most efficient twin-engine aircraft, and its fuel consumption, emissions and operating costs will be 10% lower than other competing models.”
But from the start of development, Boeing 777X has been affected by various The impact of unfavorable factors on the side was that the testers found that the GE9X engine blades had durability problems, and the GE9X was recalled; the offline ceremony and open visits originally scheduled for March 13, 2019 were also due to the two incidents of the Boeing 737 MAX The plane crash was cancelled. After
enters 2020, affected by the epidemic, airlines who have been interested in the Boeing 777X have expressed their hope to postpone the delivery or are considering replacing the aircraft. Emirates also publicly stated that based on the current situation, the Boeing 777X may not be delivered before 2022...
may not be the right time for a new model to enter the market; according to past laws, it has been hit by unexpected events. The global civil aviation market demand usually takes several years to return to the previous level.
In this stage, the impact of cost revenue and cash flow makes airlines usually very cautious in configuring their fleet. For the 777X, catching up with a bad time is more deadly than other things.
Russia SSJ100: There was an accident before, followed by sanctions
On December 7, a Russian Rostec spokesperson stated that after preliminary investigation, the SSJ100 emergency landing fire accident on May 9 last year was caused by a pilot error rather than a problem with the aircraft. . The
SSJ100 is a regional passenger aircraft developed by Russia in 2000. Up to now, more than 180 aircraft have been delivered and operated by 14 airlines and government agencies. However, since it was put into commercial operation in 2011, SSJ100 has been flying accidentally and the delivery task has not been fully fulfilled. At the same time, Western sanctions on Russian aviation manufacturing have become more and more severe. The United States has continuously issued gradually tightening sanctions to restrict domestic companies’ export of aircraft parts and components (including commercial passenger aircraft) to Russia, as well as the use of Sukhoi civil aircraft The company pulled into the sanctions "blacklist."
Under such pressure, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu revealed at the end of September this year that the new version of the SSJ100 regional airliner independently developed and manufactured by Russia will be completed in 2023. The feature of the "new version" is that nearly 60% of the aircraft's parts are "made in Russia."
As a result, the situation of the "old version" of SSJ100 will obviously worsen. In September 2020, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that foreign suppliers had interrupted the supply of Russian aircraft supporting parts and systems, further affecting its supply of electronic components, and the source of carbon fiber was also cut off... According to reports, its only import The carbon fiber inventory is only enough to re-manufacture a few planes, falling into a de facto suspension of production. The “new version” of the SSJ100, which is equipped with a Russian-made engine and supporting component system, will also face the issue of international evidence collection.
Obviously, Russia will not easily abandon the SSJ100 series development plan, but the current situation is really hard to say that SSJ100 has any bright colors in terms of production, delivery, and scientific research. As for how the "new" SSJ100 will develop, it remains to be seen.
