On December 6, according to Iranian Press TV, at 3 o'clock in the morning local time, a senior Israeli commander of Mossad (intelligence agency) was shot dead on the street in the Israeli capital. The senior official who was killed was Fami Shinawi. He was driving while waiting for a traffic light, but was suddenly shot by the gunman with 15 consecutive shots and died on the spot. After the assassination mission ended, the attacker quickly fled the scene.
Russian satellite network quoted Iranian media reports, but also emphasized that it is currently impossible to determine whether the online video is related to the shooting, and neither Israel nor Mossad made a positive response. However, some analysis pointed out that the assassination carried out by the gunmen in the Israeli capital is likely to be Iran’s counterattack against Israel’s multiple assassinations. Earlier, Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei also stated that he would avenge the attacked scientists.
The situation in the Middle East is gradually heating up, and both sides have gradually increased their "weight" on the balance of war. Both countries have fallen into a "white" haze. It is hard to imagine that in 2020, with peace as the background environment, there will be mutual assassinations. According to the development trend, the situation is completely likely to intensify. Eventually move towards a state of war.
In a sense, Israel, as the spokesperson of the United States in the Middle East, represents part of the American will. The attack on Iranian nuclear scientists actually shows that the United States and Israel are preparing for the conflict.
According to CCTV reports, the United States has done relevant research on sending troops to Iran. U.S. Intelligence Corporation has provided the U.S. government with a report on the war against Iraq. The
report shows that if the United States goes to war with Iran, the U.S. military is extremely likely to be hit hard. The report pointed out that if the United States wants to successfully disarm Iran, it needs at least 1.6 million troops. However, the current US military in the Middle East is only about 60,000. According to data provided by the British International Center for Strategic Studies, Iran has about 520,000 troops in active service. The US military and Iran's military power ratio is 1:9, and the US military is at a serious disadvantage in terms of military strength.
Secondly, the Iranian army is significantly stronger than the previous US rivals Iraq and Afghanistan. If the United States forcibly attacked Iran, it would consume twice the amount of material consumed in the Iraq War. According to a report released by the U.S. government, the U.S. fiscal deficit in 2020 is as high as 3.1 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for 16.1% of the total economic output, reaching the highest record in 75 years. Such a bad economic situation is simply not enough to maintain a large-scale economy. Modernization war.
According to the past political and economic strength of the United States, the United States may pull its allies to participate and jointly assume risks. For example, during the Gulf War, the United States invited many allies to join the war. Even Japan, which did not actually participate in the war, spent 15 billion US dollars in exchange for the so-called "offshore oil interest protection." During the Gulf War, the total consumption of the UN forces was 610. US$100 million, while the allies have invested US$53 billion. The military expenditures spent by the United States are not worth mentioning compared to the benefits that the United States gained in the war.
But today is different. The United States' control over NATO allies is gradually declining. Since the United States tore up the Iran nuclear agreement, many European countries have expressed opposition. In the current economic environment, a war of little significance is obviously not worth it. If the United States insists on launching an offensive against Iran, it is likely to face the embarrassment of having no friends to rely on. Dilemma. Edited by
: Yanbai
