Russia has always regarded the Transcaucasus region as its own backyard, and is very vigilant against the penetration of external forces. With Turkey supporting Azerbaijan for the Naka region, Russia is anxious to promote a ceasefire between the two sides and eliminate Turkey’s reasons for its existence in the region. Under Russia’s mediation, the two countries reached a ceasefire agreement on October 10, 17, and 25 respectively, but they both lasted less than a day. The two sides accused each other that the other party had violated its promise first. As Azerbaijan received strong support from Turkey, Armenia was losing ground on the battlefield. Prime Minister Pashinyan had to write a letter to Putin for help at the end of October. Russia has long been unable to tolerate Turkey’s continuous penetration of the Caucasus. Taking this opportunity, the Russian army has sent more than 1,000 soldiers and 1 MiG to the two military bases of Yerevan 3624 and Gyumri 102 in Asia. The 29th Fighter Squadron assumed a posture of impending military intervention.
With the strong intervention of the Russian army, the two countries finally reached a new round of ceasefire agreement on November 9. The difference from the previous three times is that this time the ceasefire will be deployed near the line of actual control of the two parties to supervise the implementation. Any party who wants to tear up the agreement must take into account the reaction of the Russian army. According to Rutskoy, Director of the Operational Bureau of the Russian General Staff, the Russian army will deploy 1960 soldiers, 90 armored vehicles, 380 vehicles and special equipment from the 15th Motor Infantry Brigade of the Central Military Region as a peacekeeping force to the Naka area. The time period is 5 years. After the expiration of the period, if the two parties have no objection, the Russian military stationing time will be automatically extended.
According to a Reuters report on November 12, after the ceasefire agreement came into effect in the early hours of the 10th, Russia immediately dispatched 12 Il-76 transport planes, flying a total of 23 sorties, and transported all 1,960 peacekeepers and large quantities of equipment before the 11th. It was in place and quickly seized key strategic nodes such as the Lachin Corridor, completely cutting off the possibility of Turkey and Azerbaijan’s repentance. According to the agreement, Russia and Turkey will set up a ceasefire monitoring joint center in Azerbaijan, responsible for collecting information on the implementation of the ceasefire and handling all complaints and disputes related to the ceasefire. Although Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Russia Pollard stated that the center only conducts technical supervision and the Turkish army will not participate. However, some outsiders believe that Turkey has always wanted to expand its sphere of influence in the Caucasus. Turkey has been behind the failure of the previous ceasefires. Therefore, Turkey may not faithfully abide by the agreement this time. It is very likely that it will only withdraw Turkish military personnel. , Leaving the extremist militants transported from Syria behind, waiting for an opportunity to provoke the conflict again.
However, what Turkey did not expect was that after successfully occupying several key nodes in the Naka region, the Russian Ministry of Defense suddenly announced on the 12th that in order to ensure the effective implementation of the ceasefire agreement, Russia will set up in the airspace of Armenia and the Naka region. The no-fly zone is jointly controlled by the Russian and Armenian forces and prohibits the passage of any unauthorized aircraft. This made Turkey suffer a dumb loss, because the agreement did not mention the establishment of a no-fly zone, but Russia not only did this, but also did not allow Turkey and Azerbaijan to participate. This clearly shows that it is to completely drive Turkish power out of the Caucasus. . Prior to this, Turkey had lost money in Azerbaijan. It not only provided weapons and equipment, but also hired a large number of Syrian militants to participate in the war, but was eventually excluded. Erdogan undoubtedly lost his underwear. But at this time, the Russian army was already preconceived, and it was too late for Turkey to oppose it.
