1 Powder barrel
The Ukrainian war has made Europe tremble, and another powder barrel that is enough to make Europe tremble also shows signs of rekindling. According to media reports, explosions and gunfires were heard in the Kosovo region throughout the night on December 10 and on the morning of 11.
Kosovo authorities say Serbia planned violent activities that undermine local stability.
Serbia stressed that it was the Kosovo authorities who created the current tensions and accused the United States of opposing Serbia and the EU of ignoring the dangerous actions taken by Kosovo.
Serbian President Vucic said after the National Security Council meeting on December 11 that Serbia is in a very difficult situation and accused the Pristina authorities (Kosovo authorities) of lack of respect for any agreement reached .
Serbian Prime Minister Ana Burnabić said that due to the actions of the Kosovo authorities and the inaction of the EU, Serbia is on the verge of going to war with Kosovo .
——The Balkan powder barrels burst out again.
As one of the most famous powder kegs in the world, Balkans ignited countless religious wars in ancient times, and in modern times, it directly triggered World War I , and indirectly promoted Cold War ended.
The situation is tense this time, and there are two interpretations in the public opinion:
The first interpretation , someone is engaged in Serbia. This logic is easy to understand.
First of all, Serbia and Russia have a good relationship; after the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, Serbia has always refused to join the ranks of sanctions against Russia, which annoyed the West.
Secondly, Serbia and China have a good relationship, and the United States is not friendly to China at this stage. The United States bombed Yugoslavia and brutally bombed the Chinese Embassy in South Korea, which is an indelible memory.
Since Serbia is pro-China and Russia, it is normal for the public to suspect that "someone is engaged in Serbia" under the current international situation.
The second interpretation is that some people use Serbia to make trouble. This logic is not easy to understand .
In a sense, Kosovo and Crimea have similarities.
The original NATO bombed Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro Complex , bombing Yugoslavia was mainly bombing Serbia), and the banner was that human rights were higher than sovereignty and people had the right to self-determination. Serbia faces NATO, due to its huge gap in strength, is unable to resist. Russia moved NATO's routine in Kosovo (actually the routine passed down by the Eastern Slavs ) to Crimea and Dongwu, and also carried out democratic self-determination under powerful power.
But Kosovo and Crimea are just similar but not the same. Because the West supports Kosovo's independence, but does not annex Kosovo; Russia directly swallows Crimea.
So how should I understand "someone uses Serbia to make trouble"? Since the Kosovo problem has not been resolved, it is very likely that both sides will go off fire. Since Kosovo and Crimea have similarities, then if the Crimean powder keg can be detonated, Kosovo can be detonated in a similar way.
Everything has cause and effect. What will happen if the Kosovo problem is triggered?
2 Causality at the large level
Time went back to 1999. When NATO bombed Yugoslavia, the United States took a group of Western brothers to the Balkans to clean up the pro-Russian and unhappy Milosevic ; in fact, for the United States, the Balkans did not have a substantial threat to the United States, and the new and strong euro (issued on January 1, 1999) made the United States feel like it was in the throat.
Euro is a distorted currency, and its birth means that the integration of the European continent has reached a new stage.
According to the big historical trend, after the demise of the Roman Empire, Europe became a mess.European strong people over the past thousand years, such as Louis XIV , Frederick, Napoleon, William II , Hitler, etc., tried to unify Europe again in military and political terms, and eventually ended in failure. The reason is very simple. Europe has two shit-making sticks, Britain and Tsarist Russia and .
The UK has been pursuing offshore balance and specifically joining Europe's weak countries to build a strong country. Tsarist Russia has always been a long-term relationship with Europe, occupying as much land as possible.
After World War II , the United States and the Soviet Union became the new overlords, and Europe declined. Therefore, European countries tried to put aside their prejudices and build the EU, which was equivalent to uniting the forces that Europe could unite to fight against the United States and the Soviet Union. Later, with drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union , Russian forces suddenly retreated from Berlin, the core of the Polish Plain to the traditional sphere of influence of Tsarist Russia.
The EU has greatly increased its strength due to the reunification of the two Germanys.
However, the EU inherently lacks the gene of unity, and the political level is loose, and there is absolutely no possibility of unity. The military level is controlled by the United States through NATO (EU member states are basically NATO members), and they don’t count themselves; then they can only find bonds from the economic level.
The birth of the euro not only means a new currency, but also carries the dream of European self-unity. But this dream is destined to be unfulfilled because of the existence of the United States. Because in the eyes of the United States, a united Europe can compete with the United States; once Europe succeeds in uniting itself, its status as a big brother will be threatened.
But as the big brother, the United States is not able to directly say that it will not unite the younger brothers in Europe.
So the United States found a reason that Europeans could not refuse - to bomb Yugoslavia for human rights. In addition, the United States has also figured out Germany's little thoughts (kill Milosevic, the oil from the Middle East can reach Germany more smoothly through the Balkans), and prescribed the right medicine. The United States and Europe hit it off and ran to bomb Yugoslavia.
Since NATO is at its peak,
The Balkans are close to the hinterland of Europe, and the powder barrel is ignited at once, and European resources and talents will run towards the United States. NATO's 78-day bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia caused a very far-reaching blow to the euro. That action shows that even if Europe creates the euro, it still plays the role of an American younger brother. The so-called dream of unity is more like a slogan.
Since then, the euro has gradually weakened and can no longer threaten the status of the US dollar. When France and Germany reacted, they had no choice but to fall.
Once again, the United States, which reaped the sweetness of Europe, was out of control and began to launch wars in Afghanistan , Iraq , Syria and other countries (nominally counter-terrorism); but the results were not great because those places were too poor and far away from the heart of Europe. It was not until the outbreak of the Ukrainian War that the United States tasted the sweetness of harvesting Europe again.
Everyone is wondering why the United States wants to harvest Europe? The answer is actually very simple, because the United States relies on this routine to become independent, expand and make a fortune.
The United States is independent and was founded, taking advantage of the global colonial battle between Britain and France.
The United States' territory expansion also took advantage of the British and French contradictions.
The United States grew and grew, taking advantage of the First World War in European countries.
The United States reached the top of the world, taking advantage of the World War II and the Cold War of European countries.
All this is engraved in the genes, and the United States will naturally harvest Europe along its instinct. The deep logic in it is . I have a systematic description of the Empire Gears in the American History "The World Spring and Autumn Annals: American Volume" and friends who are interested can take a look at . Below is an introduction to American history. Click on the blue font to
"Here is here! My set of " American History " considers it unique "
So this time Kosovo's powder barrel smoked, Europe felt cold and its calves trembled, but it seemed that there was nothing we could do.So at this stage, will anyone in Europe link this round of Serbian unrest with the United States' harvest of Europe? Of course there are, but not many; more Europeans are more willing to connect it with Russia. The reason for this is quite complicated, and it takes a turn here.
3 The stormy waves in Europe
Chapter 1: In the Roman Empire era, there were three major barbarians living north of the Alps: Slavs , Germanic , and Celtic . These three buddies are like three strong men. They can compete in martial arts when they have nothing to do. If they have nothing to do, they will fight me and I will fight you anyway. Anyway, they can’t be idle. They can only do a battle with a drink.
Most of the European history after the Roman Empire is the history of the fight between these three brothers. The most tragic part is , two world wars, , which has produced the pinnacle of human war history.
They usually fight each other along two great rivers north of the Alps: Danube going east, Rhine going west.
Let’s put the matter on the Rhine first, let’s talk about the Danube side today.
If you think of the Danube as a rope, you will find that for thousands of years, the upper reaches of the Danube were Germans and the middle and lower reaches were Slavs. They played tug-of-war along the Danube and competed in the Balkans.
I simply make a picture to give everyone an intuitive impression.
It is obvious from this picture: after the Danube left Germany, the south side was still the territory of the Germans (Austria), and the north side was already the territory of the Western Slavs ( Czech , Slovakia); after flowing through Hungary (this guy is more special, let me talk about him another day), it is the world where the Yugoslavs have lived since ancient times.
As one of the main ethnic groups in Yugoslavia, the Serbs have lived on the plain in the middle of the Danube since the Middle Ages and were once ruled by Ottoman Empire for a long time. However, most Serbs still believe in Orthodox religion, which shows how stubborn their character is.
Industrial civilization has arrived, and the Ottoman Empire is shaky by the great powers (British, France, Russia). So the Serbs gained autonomy in 1804.
During the endless Russian-Turkish war, Russia beat Türkiye from the east to the stars. So Serbia gained independence with the help of Russia in 1878, but life was not easy and she had to face oppression from the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
Russia had a dream at that time to form a "Pan Slavic" alliance , which was to form all Slavs into a powerful fighting group.
The ideal is very grand. As you can see from the picture above, it is equivalent to merging all countries east of Germany! This blueprint looks tempting, but it's not easy to work with. You should know that Polish . The Czech Republic is also a Slav, and he once dreamed of unifying the Slavic world. There was also the Austro-Hungarian Empire at that time, and there were a considerable number of Slavs.
During the First World War, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Germany were in the same gang, Russia and Britain and France were in the same gang, which was equivalent to a battle between the Slavs.
As you know, the fuse of World War I was the Serbian youth who assassinated the crown prince of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. In other words, the internal contradictions of the Slavs triggered the world war , and finally destroyed the two Slavic empires of Tsarist Russia and Austro-Hungary.
So, dreams are sometimes cruel.
Serbia is exactly the key point, so the Serbians have never lacked tears in their history.
4 Serbia's sadness
After the First World War, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Tsarist Russian Empire , the two Slavic empires, were all disintegrated, and replaced by the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. Everyone has been busy for twenty years and started World War II again.
After World War II, the Slavs ushered in their peak.Because of the Soviet Union's special contributions in World War II, it became the world's pole after the war and competed with the United States.
Wark Pact Group was at its peak, and basically realized Russia's "Pan Slavic" dream. Why is
said to be basically? Looking at the scope of the Chinese Vocation in this picture, it includes the Eastern Slavs, the Western Slavs, and some Yugoslavs ( Bulgarian and Romanian ), which is just the same as Yugoslavia.
At that time, Yugoslavia was one of the European powers, and both football teams and basketball teams were European powerhouses. Although it has the same development model as the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia under the leadership of Tito is unwilling to be a vassal of the Soviet Union, and will never join the Warsaw Pact group and maintain its independence. Yugoslavia's choice is a bit like Western France (withdrew from NATO in 1966 and returned in 1995).
Yugoslavia was under great pressure from the Soviet Union, but did not surrender. It can also be seen from this matter that the Serbs are as stubborn as ever.
In fact, Yugoslavia can be regarded as the minor Soviet Union. It consists of 6 franchises, namely Slovenia , Croatia , Bosnia, Herzegovina, Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro. Its territory ranges from south of the Danube plain to the Balkans.
Although Yugoslavia insisted on independence, it also disintegrated after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In fact, the collapse of the Soviet Union was just a fuse, and the real reason for the disintegration of Yugoslavia was internal.
Tito is the soul of Yugoslavia and a tough guy. He argues with the Soviet Union and the United States and makes good friends with China. These choices show his personality. But internally, his ethnic policy failed. At the beginning of Yugoslavia, the proportion of Serbian nations once exceeded 40% (this proportion is consistent with the main ethnic groups in India today). Montenegro , Macedonian , Bosnian , etc. are all considered branches of the Serbian nation and have very good cohesion.
However, because Tito was born in Croatia, he adopted a policy of differentiating and suppressing the Serbian nation.
is equivalent to saying that the Serbian nation was dismembered by Yugoslavia itself! I would cry even if I thought about this. This process of
eventually led to a significant decline in the Serb population, and Yugoslavia has also become a country without a subject ethnic group.
Historical turning moment—
European and American media vigorously publicize the superiority of multi-party elections, saying that the root of all social and economic problems in Yugoslavia lies in the electoral system.
At the same time, internal public intellectuals followed up in a timely manner and advocated the benefits of multi-party elections. A series of political parties emerged like mushrooms after a rain. In the absence of a subject nation, these political parties only represent their respective interests and do not represent the interests of Yugoslavia.
So the entire once glorious Yugoslavia went to a split in internal consumption . Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina were independent one after another, and only the two brothers Serbia and Montenegro wanted to join forces to form the Federation of Yugoslavia.
Slovenia and Croatia cut off most of the coastline, and the remaining Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was already weak, but it was still the target of NATO's attack. Because Yugoslavia has a good relationship with Russia and China.
So in 1999, NATO bombed the Serbians to the lowest point in history in the 78-day air strike against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
Then Montenegro could not hold on anymore. In the referendum in 2006, he was independent with a slight advantage, and the remaining Serbia became a completely landlocked country.
What is even more embarrassing is that Serbia inherited most of the legacy of the Federation of Yugoslavia, including all the navy.
Yugoslavia era, the Navy had dozens of warships and many advanced equipment, and was one of the strongest maritime forces in the Mediterranean and the Balkans. After Serbia lost all its estuaries, some naval warships were still there and could only return to the Danube to fight. This kind of frustration is very understandable.
Serbia is currently struggling in Eastern Europe, and the only way to change the environment is to join the EU. If you join the EU, the seaport will not be a problem. You can open up trade throughout Europe and enjoy EU subsidies.
The EU puts forward the conditions: recognize Kosovo's independence.
When Serbia heard this, she refused! Although I am very poor, I am still very stubborn.
From being ruled by Ottoman but maintaining the Orthodox faith, to being unwilling to follow the Soviet Union, and to being unwilling to agree to the EU's conditions, it can be seen that the Serbs have always been very stubborn.
Because of Serbia's stubbornness and tenacity, the Kosovo issue has remained unresolved. This time the conflict broke out, Western public opinion attributed the reason to Russia, on the grounds that Russia tried to raise problems for the West through the Kosovo issue.
So is it Russia or the United States?
5 Russia or the United States
From many aspects, if the Serbian crisis breaks out, it will be beneficial to Russia.
The reason why Russia is struggling in the Ukrainian battlefield is that the West is united and stands on the opposite side of Russia. If the West faces another war crisis, it will inevitably focus on dealing with it. Especially if a crisis breaks out in the Balkans, it will affect the flow of resources in the Middle East to Germany.
But to be honest, Russia may not have the strength to stimulate Kosovo crisis , because Russia is severely restrained by Ukraine. However, this does not rule out the suspicion of Russia.
For Russia, only when the Kosovo crisis detonates the war can it truly alleviate its own pressure. If Kosovo War breaks out again in the end, it means that Russia is more likely to be behind it.
Back to the US level, the United States last bombing of the Confederacy of Yugoslavia received a huge wave of dividends (harvest Europe), and this time the Ukrainian war received a huge wave of dividends (harvest Europe).
But now, Germany and France in Europe are relatively dissatisfied with the United States' eating in the Ukrainian War. Especially Biden took the opportunity to implement "Inflation Reduction Act" , which hurt European companies. Macron not long ago visited the United States and asked to solve this problem; as a result, he encountered a soft nail (he served delicious food and drink, but no substantial results were achieved), which made all sectors of Europe extremely dissatisfied. Europe is also brewing similar means to compete with the United States.
What other means does the United States have to appease Europe at this time? Almost nothing. According to the rules of the game in the Global Village, when the elder brother has no chips to comfort the younger brother, he will definitely try every means to hit him.
What is the way for the United States to hit Europe? According to the experience of the US empire in controlling his younger brother over the years, there should be many ways; triggering the Balkans gunpowder barrel should be a more effective one. Because if a war breaks out on the Balkans, the impact on Europe is likely to be higher than the Ukrainian war.
So is this Kosovo crisis a means for the United States to beat me? The exact answer is not here, but there can be an observation. If Europe does not take substantial measures to deal with the impact of the US "Inflation Reduction Act", it means that the United States has taken a substantial measure of attack on Europe, and this round of Kosovo crisis may be a blow to the US imperialists on Europe.
Of course, there is another possibility, that is, the United States sucks blood through the Ukrainian War and does not drink enough, so it starts working on another powder keg and sucks another wave. But no matter which possibility, for Europe, as long as you see signs of a Kosovo powder keg ignition, you will probably tremble involuntarily.
So this Kosovo crisis, don’t ask whether it is the United States or Russia. They are not kind-hearted and are proficient in various dark means to seek benefits for themselves. This is the foundation for their survival in the global village over the years.
