edited
person
according to
people Chongyang "The Ten Years of China" series of lectures started on July 4 and the first lecture Wu Xiaoqiu "The Ten Years of China's Capital Market" has received high attention from home and abroad, and many well-known media have reported it in large quantities. The fourth lecture on August 23 was taught by Professor Jin Canrong, a School of International Relations, Renmin University of China. The theme was "The Ten Years of China's Diplomacy" . The first part of the record """""""http://www.sys.com" "http://www.sys.com" and the second part ""http://www.sys.com" 》 has launched (please click the underlined part to view the relevant content) . The following is the third part of Professor Jin Canrong’s lecture transcript, which is the lecture Q&A session. The details are as follows:
Core summary
■ The Taiwan issue is a "two countries and three parties" game. On August 2, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was a problem for the United States, not a personal behavior. Because of the United States' provocation, we have countered the situation, which is reasonable and legal, and I think the countermeasure is effective and has formed a new normal that is beneficial to us. The core of the new normal is that we have gained dominance on cross-strait issues. Judging from the white paper, we still hope for a peaceful solution. But because this is a game between two countries and three parties, we cannot decide unilaterally. No matter how good our subjective wish is, it is just one of the variables. If the two parties do not listen to us, there is a high possibility of conflict in terms of objective interaction between the three parties.
■ China's neighboring diplomacy focuses on economic development. Our economy is very attractive. Most of the surrounding countries are our trading partners. Our trade influence is greater than that of the United States. The United States is no longer able to do so now. The United States is still more powerful in terms of security, with a strong military strength, and ideology has a greater appeal, but the economy is not as good as China. The United States has put in a lot of effort to create conflicts around China and put pressure on it, but it is not very successful. China's neighboring diplomacy is generally OK.
■ China-US relations will be mainly competitive in the next twenty years, but the next five years will be the most difficult and particularly difficult. The Taiwan issue may erupt and impact Sino-US relations. There are conflicts within the United States that will spill overflow, which are not conducive to Sino-US relations. It would be better to survive these five years. The key to dealing with it is to develop well in the country and not collapse the economy. The domestic economy is good and the domestic stability is stable, so there is a great advantage in the game outside.
Q&A session:
Question 1: Regarding the Taiwan issue, you just mentioned that Taiwan is not a diplomatic issue, but it has a great restraint on China's diplomacy. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has brought about major changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Many people believe that the process of cross-strait reunification has also entered a new stage, and it seems that "martial reunification" is getting closer. So, what do you think about future cross-strait reunification, including some current situations in the Taiwan Strait?
Jin Canrong: Pelosi's visit to Taiwan on the evening of August 2 did have an impact on cross-strait relations and Sino-US relations. I noticed that on August 3, " New York Times " and " Washington Post " all criticized Pelosi, saying that he sacrificed national interests for personal vanity. The article in the New York Times also counted a number. In order to protect Pelosi, the military sent two business jets to deploy the USS Reagan aircraft carrier combat group east of Philippine . Later, for reinforcements, she transferred the amphibious assault ship "Tripoli". In fact, she spent about US$96 million on US taxpayers, equivalent to more than RMB 600 million.
Along with the story, NetEase published a bad article last week, saying that we had set off "fireworks" for four days and spent 100 billion yuan. This person is a bad person, a traitor, disrupting the morale of the army. This person has to be arrested. He is completely nonsense. I can tell you with confidence that we spend less than 600 million Americans.
The basic fact is that Pelosi's visit is not a personal behavior, unlike the Americans who talk about personal behavior separation of powers cannot control it.This is an act that the administrative department helps to operate. The US military has been helping her plan behind her. Two business jets, one and a half aircraft carrier cluster, and the entire complex flight route, sneaky, are all the results of the operation. In fact, it is a test of China's strategic bottom line by the US strategic community.
So, it is certain that Pelosi's behavior is not a personal behavior. It impacted one-China principle and emptied the United States' own one-China policy. Therefore, the countermeasure is reasonable and legal. It seems that the countermeasures are still effective, including the United States and Taiwan. Not only does it sanction Pelosi and their family, but it also has eight countermeasures, which still has a certain effect on the United States. has certain economic sanctions on Taiwan, but it still hopes to strive for peaceful reunification to the greatest extent, but in fact it has not taken any ruthless measures. Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) has not stopped, but has selected some projects and imposed some economic sanctions on Taiwan, mainly because of the legal responsibility of Taiwan independence elements. The most real thing is military pressure. The military exercise around the island is effective. All six areas are the so-called Taiwan's central line, unlike the 2016 exercises here. It should be said that Taiwan has essentially implemented a sea and air blockade, showing our capabilities. Complete operations were carried out, first with long-range conventional missiles and army long-fire strikes, and then with naval and air force blockades. By the way, it seems that Japan and the United States are not right in our missile exercise. We will not say the specific details, but they have read them wrong. How many conventional missiles have we fired, and what points have we fired, they didn't see exactly. Some people say that Japan is very accurate, but Japan is not accurate. And the United States didn't see it correctly, which I didn't expect. This is very interesting. Navy and Air Force assault, more than 100 aircraft and more than 30 ships. Behind the six areas, we conducted a landing exercise in other places, and we trained soldiers in a complete manner and showed our control.
Basically, we are not very problematic in this round of game. By the way, on the night of August 2, the people across the country were very disappointed, and most people were very disappointed, so I was very disappointed and very angry. That day, you just look at the National Hate Party. Those public officials were very happy and said that China was a paper tiger, but they were happy for a night and became nervous later. Later, some people scolded us, saying that the tone was too high, and even scolded Lao Hu ( Hu Xijin ). I don't understand these people. When we need to fight with the United States, they all hid and watched jokes. When they started fighting later, they started to fight, but because of inaccurate predictions, he came to be sarcastic. How could you ask a reporter or a commentator to accurately control such a complex development? American journalists are talking nonsense all day long, no one accused them. Why are they so double standards against China? These people are bad people, so bad that they are so bad.
Back to our reality, the United States is provoking first, and we counterattack later, which is reasonable and legal, and I think counterattack is effective. Because it is effective, the United States began to complain, saying that you have overresisted and formed a new normal. This is what it should be, that is, a new normal should be formed. The new normal has formed a comparison of strength. Frankly speaking, we have the advantage. At least on the issue of Taiwan, mainland China has surpassed them physically compared to the United States and Taiwan independence elements (who are actually in the same group). This is one of my views.
Taiwan issue is a "two countries and three parties" game. The game has a physical foundation. The physical foundation should be about the past and Taiwan's strength advantages, but with our industrialization and military modernization, this advantage has already lies with us. The above Game is a game in English. The power base of this game is balance of power. Now the balance of power is beneficial to us.
Because most American strategists and Taiwan independence elements have not realized a fact, I have repeatedly talked about this fact in recent years. The greatest fact of human beings today is China's industrialization. We have mastered the secret to the rise of the West, and we have mastered the largest industrialization in human history. This is the greatest and most important fact. edited person according to people Chongyang "The Ten Years of China" series of lectures started on July 4 and the first lecture Wu Xiaoqiu "The Ten Years of China's Capital Market" has received high attention from home and abroad, and many well-known media have reported it in large quantities. The fourth lecture on August 23 was taught by Professor Jin Canrong, a School of International Relations, Renmin University of China. The theme was "The Ten Years of China's Diplomacy" . The first part of the record """""""http://www.sys.com" "http://www.sys.com" and the second part ""http://www.sys.com" 》 has launched (please click the underlined part to view the relevant content) . The following is the third part of Professor Jin Canrong’s lecture transcript, which is the lecture Q&A session. The details are as follows: Core summary ■ The Taiwan issue is a "two countries and three parties" game. On August 2, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was a problem for the United States, not a personal behavior. Because of the United States' provocation, we have countered the situation, which is reasonable and legal, and I think the countermeasure is effective and has formed a new normal that is beneficial to us. The core of the new normal is that we have gained dominance on cross-strait issues. Judging from the white paper, we still hope for a peaceful solution. But because this is a game between two countries and three parties, we cannot decide unilaterally. No matter how good our subjective wish is, it is just one of the variables. If the two parties do not listen to us, there is a high possibility of conflict in terms of objective interaction between the three parties. ■ China's neighboring diplomacy focuses on economic development. Our economy is very attractive. Most of the surrounding countries are our trading partners. Our trade influence is greater than that of the United States. The United States is no longer able to do so now. The United States is still more powerful in terms of security, with a strong military strength, and ideology has a greater appeal, but the economy is not as good as China. The United States has put in a lot of effort to create conflicts around China and put pressure on it, but it is not very successful. China's neighboring diplomacy is generally OK. ■ China-US relations will be mainly competitive in the next twenty years, but the next five years will be the most difficult and particularly difficult. The Taiwan issue may erupt and impact Sino-US relations. There are conflicts within the United States that will spill overflow, which are not conducive to Sino-US relations. It would be better to survive these five years. The key to dealing with it is to develop well in the country and not collapse the economy. The domestic economy is good and the domestic stability is stable, so there is a great advantage in the game outside. Q&A session: Jin Canrong: Pelosi's visit to Taiwan on the evening of August 2 did have an impact on cross-strait relations and Sino-US relations. I noticed that on August 3, " New York Times " and " Washington Post " all criticized Pelosi, saying that he sacrificed national interests for personal vanity. The article in the New York Times also counted a number. In order to protect Pelosi, the military sent two business jets to deploy the USS Reagan aircraft carrier combat group east of Philippine . Later, for reinforcements, she transferred the amphibious assault ship "Tripoli". In fact, she spent about US$96 million on US taxpayers, equivalent to more than RMB 600 million. Along with the story, NetEase published a bad article last week, saying that we had set off "fireworks" for four days and spent 100 billion yuan. This person is a bad person, a traitor, disrupting the morale of the army. This person has to be arrested. He is completely nonsense. I can tell you with confidence that we spend less than 600 million Americans. The basic fact is that Pelosi's visit is not a personal behavior, unlike the Americans who talk about personal behavior separation of powers cannot control it.This is an act that the administrative department helps to operate. The US military has been helping her plan behind her. Two business jets, one and a half aircraft carrier cluster, and the entire complex flight route, sneaky, are all the results of the operation. In fact, it is a test of China's strategic bottom line by the US strategic community. So, it is certain that Pelosi's behavior is not a personal behavior. It impacted one-China principle and emptied the United States' own one-China policy. Therefore, the countermeasure is reasonable and legal. It seems that the countermeasures are still effective, including the United States and Taiwan. Not only does it sanction Pelosi and their family, but it also has eight countermeasures, which still has a certain effect on the United States. has certain economic sanctions on Taiwan, but it still hopes to strive for peaceful reunification to the greatest extent, but in fact it has not taken any ruthless measures. Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) has not stopped, but has selected some projects and imposed some economic sanctions on Taiwan, mainly because of the legal responsibility of Taiwan independence elements. The most real thing is military pressure. The military exercise around the island is effective. All six areas are the so-called Taiwan's central line, unlike the 2016 exercises here. It should be said that Taiwan has essentially implemented a sea and air blockade, showing our capabilities. Complete operations were carried out, first with long-range conventional missiles and army long-fire strikes, and then with naval and air force blockades. By the way, it seems that Japan and the United States are not right in our missile exercise. We will not say the specific details, but they have read them wrong. How many conventional missiles have we fired, and what points have we fired, they didn't see exactly. Some people say that Japan is very accurate, but Japan is not accurate. And the United States didn't see it correctly, which I didn't expect. This is very interesting. Navy and Air Force assault, more than 100 aircraft and more than 30 ships. Behind the six areas, we conducted a landing exercise in other places, and we trained soldiers in a complete manner and showed our control. Basically, we are not very problematic in this round of game. By the way, on the night of August 2, the people across the country were very disappointed, and most people were very disappointed, so I was very disappointed and very angry. That day, you just look at the National Hate Party. Those public officials were very happy and said that China was a paper tiger, but they were happy for a night and became nervous later. Later, some people scolded us, saying that the tone was too high, and even scolded Lao Hu ( Hu Xijin ). I don't understand these people. When we need to fight with the United States, they all hid and watched jokes. When they started fighting later, they started to fight, but because of inaccurate predictions, he came to be sarcastic. How could you ask a reporter or a commentator to accurately control such a complex development? American journalists are talking nonsense all day long, no one accused them. Why are they so double standards against China? These people are bad people, so bad that they are so bad. Back to our reality, the United States is provoking first, and we counterattack later, which is reasonable and legal, and I think counterattack is effective. Because it is effective, the United States began to complain, saying that you have overresisted and formed a new normal. This is what it should be, that is, a new normal should be formed. The new normal has formed a comparison of strength. Frankly speaking, we have the advantage. At least on the issue of Taiwan, mainland China has surpassed them physically compared to the United States and Taiwan independence elements (who are actually in the same group). This is one of my views. Taiwan issue is a "two countries and three parties" game. The game has a physical foundation. The physical foundation should be about the past and Taiwan's strength advantages, but with our industrialization and military modernization, this advantage has already lies with us. The above Game is a game in English. The power base of this game is balance of power. Now the balance of power is beneficial to us. Because most American strategists and Taiwan independence elements have not realized a fact, I have repeatedly talked about this fact in recent years. The greatest fact of human beings today is China's industrialization. We have mastered the secret to the rise of the West, and we have mastered the largest industrialization in human history. This is the greatest and most important fact. But many people don’t know it, and their judgments are wrong after not knowing it, because they have not seen or accepted the fact that China has achieved industrialization. Therefore, it makes a mistake when it comes to specific issues. They still underestimate the capabilities and will of mainland China, especially their abilities. It’s hard to say about will, because now we still have a big internal discrepancy. I now feel more and more that before this incident, some of us had a high tone, and some traditional media and self-media were speaking very fiercely, and I think it was intentional. Why could more than a dozen online platforms live broadcast that day? This matter cannot be broadcast live, but it is broadcast live, which means that one billion people can’t sleep and smash the cups in anger. This is what you want, so that you can unify the internal situation. In fact, we are quite inconsistent. In fact, some people are two-faced people and oppose unification. There must be such people inside. There are many people who raise bandits and respect themselves. They need unification within, which requires a little sad attitude. is now fine. On August 2, the United States was provoked first. We effectively counterattacked, and when our strength comes, counterattacks have formed a new normal. In a sense, what is the core of the new normal? It is that mainland China began to gain strategic leadership on the Taiwan issue. Of course, soon after the exercise, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Central Committee and the State Council Information Office issued the "White Paper on the Taiwan Issue and the New Era of China's Unification". There are two copies of this white paper in front, and there are two copies of 1993 and 2021. However, unlike before, this white paper is different from before. It was promised not to garrison troops, but this time it will garrison troops. This is a change. There is also the need to exclude Taiwan independence elements. In the future, a unified China will not have the status of Taiwan independence elements. Specifically, the Democratic Progressive Party will be out of the blue. This is new. Of course, another feature of this white paper is tolerance, which shows that mainland China pursues the peaceful reunification of one country, two systems with the greatest sincerity and patience. It has spent a lot of time talking about the rationality of , one country, two systems . But from a certain perspective, this is actually the final appeal. Our unification process began. It started on August 2nd. The previous unification was still a saying, but now it has become an action. This white paper still tells Taiwan that I still have this wish for peaceful reunification of one country, two systems. In a sense, it is like taking a plane that is the last broadcast, the last call, but it is not known whether peaceful reunification can be achieved objectively. I don’t think there is a certain answer now. I have talked about in many places. Taiwan issue is a two-way three-party game. The Taiwan issue is our internal affairs, but due to historical reasons, the United States has been involved, so China and the United States are playing games here. Due to historical reasons, there was a temporary separation between Taiwan and the mainland, so we are two countries and three parties. We are now going to be unified, but we hope for peaceful reunification, but those two sides may not necessarily do it. The United States now wants to use the Taiwan card to restrict us and use Taiwan to control China. Taiwan independence elements rely on the United States to seek independence through the United States. So, this is contradictory, these three trends are fighting. The final result is this, Our subjective wish is good, we hope that one country, two systems will be peacefully reunified, and we are willing to do our best, patience and sincerity to pursue this, but the objective game is moving towards conflict. There are two anti-China elements in the U.S. Senate planning to launch the "Taiwan Policy Act", which was jointly proposed by U.S. Republican Senator Graham and Democratic Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Menendez. Judging from the information disclosed by the US media, it seems to be very cross-border and impacts our one-China policy. Now the Biden administration is a little afraid that it will not pass this bill if it is doing work in private. But we don’t know whether they listen or not. It is estimated that it is easier to pass it in Congress at least. I don’t know whether Biden and have the courage to reject it. If this bill is passed, it will have a great impact on the one-China principle and will lead to unpredictable consequences. In recent years, the West has had a characteristic: they want to attack the one-China principle, but they are afraid of a complete fall. So there is a characteristic: the parliament comes to attack, and the executive department does not go, but many parliamentarians go to run. The Taiwanese authorities have all bought it. The members of the parliamentary who went there are all paid for money and make some money. In addition, they are all gaining fame when they go there, which is very troublesome. The conclusion is as follows: August 2 is the United States’ provocation, not a personal behavior. Because of the United States' provocation, we have countered the situation, which is reasonable and legal, and I think the countermeasure is effective and has formed a new normal that is beneficial to us. The core of the new normal is that we have gained dominance on cross-strait issues. Judging from the white paper, we still hope for a peaceful solution. But because this is a game between two countries and three parties, we cannot decide unilaterally. No matter how good our subjective wish is, it is just one of the variables. If the two parties do not listen to us, there is a high possibility of conflict in terms of objective interaction between the three parties. I am a little pessimistic. I personally do not advocate war, but as an objective analyst and a strategic observer, the trends I see will be unified in the end, but there is a high possibility of force conflict. Of course, there are many forms of force, and it may not be fought at once, but it is more likely to resolve this problem in the form of negotiations but conflicts. But it is hard to say what time and point it is now, so we need to observe it again. Jin Canrong: Overall, the quality of our work in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is very high and there are already many practical practices in it. From the perspective of current global strategy, the United States will definitely attach more importance to China, and the focus of global strategy should be China. Although the United States has encountered challenges in the European direction this year, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will decompose some of its energy and resources, its global strategic focus has not changed in China. This is a feature, and the focus of the US global strategy is on China. Second, the content has changed. It turns out that the United States’ strategy toward China is the Asia-Pacific strategy. I understand that “Asia” is South Korea and Japan, and “Pacific” is New Zealand . Australia is to draw a straight line in the east of China. China does not enter the Pacific Ocean, but now it has been changed to Indo-Pacific Strategy . The concept of Indo-Pacific strategy was first proposed by Abe , and Americans accepted it. Abe is a very outstanding and strategic vision among Japanese politicians in recent years. He really wants national rejuvenation. His goal of national rejuvenation is very clear, which is normal nationalization. Of course, the word "normal country" he said is a bit misleading. His so-called normal country is to allow Japan to achieve a major power status corresponding to the third major economic power in politics, military, diplomacy and culture, and his normal country is to become a major power. Abe's idea should be to promote the Sino-US conflict and Japan will benefit from it. During this process, he showed that he was particularly loyal to the United States, so everyone has an impression in recent years that Abe was particularly humiliating to the United States and sometimes felt a little humiliated, especially during the Trump's period, he looked a little pitiful. But this is not Abe's nature. He is very strong in his personal heart and is determined for his national goals. For this reason, he is willing to whisper to the United States, gain trust in the United States, and then influence the United States. He achieved his goal, like the Indo-Pacific strategy, which was accepted by the Americans. He told the Americans that just draw a straight line to prevent China from going east, but China can go south, South China Sea , Indian Ocean , so the blockade against China must be turned from a single shape to an L shape, and the Americans took it over. Therefore, now the United States’ strategy for us has become an Indo-Pacific strategy, and the focus of competition is Southeast Asia and India. With the emergence of the Indo-Pacific strategy, some new organizational structures have emerged, the famous of which is the emergence of the United States, Japan, India and Australia Quadratic Mechanism (QUAD). The United States regards us as strategic opponents, and it is okay to take care of the United States. Don’t look at the carelessness of the United States, they are actually very careful. Once they treat you as an opponent, many actions will come. China is generally in the defensive stage, and counterattacks are made by China. None of these conflicts were provoked by China. They are all attacking us, we counterattack, and even in a few cases, they attacked us without fighting back. Now I understand that China's neighboring diplomacy focuses on developing the economy. We are strong in this area, our economy is very attractive, and most of the surrounding countries are our trading partners. Our trade influence is greater than that of the United States. The United States is no longer able to do so now.The United States is still more powerful in terms of security, with a strong military strength and a greater ideological appeal, but the economy is not as good as China. China relies heavily on economic ties to consolidate its relationship with its surrounding areas. It began with Trump's unilateral trade war with China on March 22, 2018, followed by a series of technology wars, public opinion wars, judicial wars, virus origin tracing wars, etc. I understand that China's surrounding areas are handled well. Basically, Japan is the one with a relatively far relationship with China, which is a little further away from before. To the south, the ten ASEAN countries + East Timor . These eleven countries are pretty good. You can understand that the United States forces the ten ASEAN countries to take the team, but they don’t take the team. This is what we won. Southwest India has some problems. India has been chasing us in recent years. There are a lot of frictions on the western border. The United States is also pulling it. They also use the American power to call us on the board. However, China's relations with countries outside of South Asia and India are OK. I remember that last year China held a dialogue between South Asia, but India did not come, but it was called "Muji" by netizens. This will be very good, no India has come. Therefore, China's main diplomatic difficulties are the direction of India in the southwest, the direction of Japan in the southeast, the direction of South Korea in the east, North Korea in the north, Mongolia and Russia in the north, and the five Stans in the north, Central Asia in the north, are OK. So, my intuition, the United States is now competing with us, including putting pressure around the surrounding area to make trouble, and there are also some small results. For example, Nepal The current government is getting closer to the United States. However, it has not achieved much results. The achievements around China in the past two years are that Japan and India are closer to it. But these two guys didn’t like China at first, and the United States would have had a fight with China. The two “strikers” around China, but it’s actually good to abandon them. The ten countries in the south + East Timor are good, the five Central Asian countries in the northwest are good, the north is good, and the east is good. Therefore, the United States has put in a lot of effort to create conflicts around China and put pressure on it, but it is not very successful. China's neighboring diplomacy is still possible in general. Question 3: How will the relationship between China and the United States take place in the next five to ten years, and what do you think? Jin Canrong: has just listed five external challenges. Sino-US relations are the first, and this will still be the case in the next five years. Sino-US relations are still the most difficult diplomatic problem. or say a little more. China-US relations will be mainly competitive in the next twenty years, but the next five years will be the most difficult and particularly difficult. It will be better to survive these five years. The logic of is as follows: first. The next five years will be the five years for China to catch up with the United States. When catching up, the United States will definitely have the most countermeasures. From a common sense, if China surpasses the United States, the United States will have no choice but to accept it; if China is far away from the United States and is not qualified to challenge the United States, it doesn’t matter; but you are very close, but have not surpassed it yet. When you catch up, this must be the most intense reaction. This is the basic situation of human nature. As long as China does not make mistakes and works hard, the next five years will roughly catch up with the United States, and its military strength will reach a higher level, chips and industrial design software, and such things that are choked will solve a considerable number of them. So, these five years are quite critical. But it is precisely the key in these five years. It will definitely react fiercely. The Sino-US conflict in the next five years will be more prominent, which is determined by the stage. Second, the next five years will definitely be strong and I will be weak, and this cannot be changed. A few Chinese people say that we are almost done and balanced, but in fact there is still a gap with it, so it has a bad temper and is beautiful and strong, so we are under great pressure. Third, the Taiwan issue tends to break out in the next five years, which is a high probability event. China's development has reached the stage of catching up. The United States is nervous. The Taiwan issue may break out and impact it. The United States still has a little advantage. It is a high probability event. There may be another situation. The United States will be quite chaotic in the next five years. It is not ruled out that Trump will return in 2024. Of course, it seems that the Biden administration in the United States is going to punish Trump, and it is not even ruled out that he is arrested, but Trump now seems to have a high social support rate and internal conflicts in the United States will accumulate.The United States and China are different. Chinese culture emphasizes that everything is about oneself. Whenever there is something, one will reflect on oneself. There are a number of reflections on the Internet. It is the fault of the Chinese people if anything happens. Why do others hit you and you have to reflect on it? This is also a bit of a problem. Americans are not, the United States is marine culture , and everything goes wrong by others. I am a little worried that they will be more chaotic within and move the responsibility further out. So, we must catch up with the United States for these factors, it is nervous; the Taiwan issue may break out and impact Sino-US relations, and the United States still has one remaining advantage to use; there are conflicts within the United States that need to spill overflow, which are all unfavorable to Sino-US relations. These need to be prepared, and the next five years will be quite difficult. The key to dealing with it is to develop well in the country and not collapse the economy. I have said in many places that the key to winning a big country lies in its decisive victory, and the key to the domestic lies in its economy. The domestic economy is good and the domestic stability is very advantageous, and the outside game is very good. The key is to do a good job in the country. Diplomacy is to deal with each other with each other and make steady progress, so be mentally prepared. Sino-US relations are very difficult in the next five years. The key to dealing with them is to better strategies at home and abroad, and to cultivate both internally and externally. Although it is difficult, if we do not make mistakes, we should be able to deal with the past. If we win over five years without wasting it, I believe that in five years, China and the United States will be more balanced. After equilibrium, we will have offensive and defensive one another. At that time, China will be much more proactive than now, and life will not be so sad. Question 1: Regarding the Taiwan issue, you just mentioned that Taiwan is not a diplomatic issue, but it has a great restraint on China's diplomacy. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has brought about major changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Many people believe that the process of cross-strait reunification has also entered a new stage, and it seems that "martial reunification" is getting closer. So, what do you think about future cross-strait reunification, including some current situations in the Taiwan Strait?
Question 2: Faced with the more comprehensive strategic layout of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, how can China do a good job in neighboring diplomacy to deal with the US and the West’s encirclement and containment?
The conclusion is as follows: August 2 is the United States’ provocation, not a personal behavior. Because of the United States' provocation, we have countered the situation, which is reasonable and legal, and I think the countermeasure is effective and has formed a new normal that is beneficial to us. The core of the new normal is that we have gained dominance on cross-strait issues. Judging from the white paper, we still hope for a peaceful solution. But because this is a game between two countries and three parties, we cannot decide unilaterally. No matter how good our subjective wish is, it is just one of the variables. If the two parties do not listen to us, there is a high possibility of conflict in terms of objective interaction between the three parties. I am a little pessimistic. I personally do not advocate war, but as an objective analyst and a strategic observer, the trends I see will be unified in the end, but there is a high possibility of force conflict. Of course, there are many forms of force, and it may not be fought at once, but it is more likely to resolve this problem in the form of negotiations but conflicts. But it is hard to say what time and point it is now, so we need to observe it again.
Question 2: Faced with the more comprehensive strategic layout of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, how can China do a good job in neighboring diplomacy to deal with the US and the West’s encirclement and containment?
Jin Canrong: Overall, the quality of our work in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is very high and there are already many practical practices in it. From the perspective of current global strategy, the United States will definitely attach more importance to China, and the focus of global strategy should be China. Although the United States has encountered challenges in the European direction this year, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will decompose some of its energy and resources, its global strategic focus has not changed in China. This is a feature, and the focus of the US global strategy is on China.
Second, the content has changed. It turns out that the United States’ strategy toward China is the Asia-Pacific strategy. I understand that “Asia” is South Korea and Japan, and “Pacific” is New Zealand . Australia is to draw a straight line in the east of China. China does not enter the Pacific Ocean, but now it has been changed to Indo-Pacific Strategy . The concept of Indo-Pacific strategy was first proposed by Abe , and Americans accepted it. Abe is a very outstanding and strategic vision among Japanese politicians in recent years. He really wants national rejuvenation. His goal of national rejuvenation is very clear, which is normal nationalization. Of course, the word "normal country" he said is a bit misleading. His so-called normal country is to allow Japan to achieve a major power status corresponding to the third major economic power in politics, military, diplomacy and culture, and his normal country is to become a major power. Abe's idea should be to promote the Sino-US conflict and Japan will benefit from it. During this process, he showed that he was particularly loyal to the United States, so everyone has an impression in recent years that Abe was particularly humiliating to the United States and sometimes felt a little humiliated, especially during the Trump's period, he looked a little pitiful. But this is not Abe's nature. He is very strong in his personal heart and is determined for his national goals. For this reason, he is willing to whisper to the United States, gain trust in the United States, and then influence the United States. He achieved his goal, like the Indo-Pacific strategy, which was accepted by the Americans. He told the Americans that just draw a straight line to prevent China from going east, but China can go south, South China Sea , Indian Ocean , so the blockade against China must be turned from a single shape to an L shape, and the Americans took it over. Therefore, now the United States’ strategy for us has become an Indo-Pacific strategy, and the focus of competition is Southeast Asia and India.
With the emergence of the Indo-Pacific strategy, some new organizational structures have emerged, the famous of which is the emergence of the United States, Japan, India and Australia Quadratic Mechanism (QUAD). The United States regards us as strategic opponents, and it is okay to take care of the United States. Don’t look at the carelessness of the United States, they are actually very careful. Once they treat you as an opponent, many actions will come.
China is generally in the defensive stage, and counterattacks are made by China. None of these conflicts were provoked by China. They are all attacking us, we counterattack, and even in a few cases, they attacked us without fighting back.
Now I understand that China's neighboring diplomacy focuses on developing the economy. We are strong in this area, our economy is very attractive, and most of the surrounding countries are our trading partners. Our trade influence is greater than that of the United States. The United States is no longer able to do so now.The United States is still more powerful in terms of security, with a strong military strength and a greater ideological appeal, but the economy is not as good as China. China relies heavily on economic ties to consolidate its relationship with its surrounding areas. It began with Trump's unilateral trade war with China on March 22, 2018, followed by a series of technology wars, public opinion wars, judicial wars, virus origin tracing wars, etc. I understand that China's surrounding areas are handled well. Basically, Japan is the one with a relatively far relationship with China, which is a little further away from before. To the south, the ten ASEAN countries + East Timor . These eleven countries are pretty good. You can understand that the United States forces the ten ASEAN countries to take the team, but they don’t take the team. This is what we won.
Southwest India has some problems. India has been chasing us in recent years. There are a lot of frictions on the western border. The United States is also pulling it. They also use the American power to call us on the board. However, China's relations with countries outside of South Asia and India are OK. I remember that last year China held a dialogue between South Asia, but India did not come, but it was called "Muji" by netizens. This will be very good, no India has come. Therefore, China's main diplomatic difficulties are the direction of India in the southwest, the direction of Japan in the southeast, the direction of South Korea in the east, North Korea in the north, Mongolia and Russia in the north, and the five Stans in the north, Central Asia in the north, are OK.
So, my intuition, the United States is now competing with us, including putting pressure around the surrounding area to make trouble, and there are also some small results. For example, Nepal The current government is getting closer to the United States. However, it has not achieved much results. The achievements around China in the past two years are that Japan and India are closer to it. But these two guys didn’t like China at first, and the United States would have had a fight with China. The two “strikers” around China, but it’s actually good to abandon them. The ten countries in the south + East Timor are good, the five Central Asian countries in the northwest are good, the north is good, and the east is good. Therefore, the United States has put in a lot of effort to create conflicts around China and put pressure on it, but it is not very successful. China's neighboring diplomacy is still possible in general.
Question 3: How will the relationship between China and the United States take place in the next five to ten years, and what do you think?
Jin Canrong: has just listed five external challenges. Sino-US relations are the first, and this will still be the case in the next five years. Sino-US relations are still the most difficult diplomatic problem. or say a little more. China-US relations will be mainly competitive in the next twenty years, but the next five years will be the most difficult and particularly difficult. It will be better to survive these five years. The logic of is as follows:
first. The next five years will be the five years for China to catch up with the United States. When catching up, the United States will definitely have the most countermeasures. From a common sense, if China surpasses the United States, the United States will have no choice but to accept it; if China is far away from the United States and is not qualified to challenge the United States, it doesn’t matter; but you are very close, but have not surpassed it yet. When you catch up, this must be the most intense reaction. This is the basic situation of human nature. As long as China does not make mistakes and works hard, the next five years will roughly catch up with the United States, and its military strength will reach a higher level, chips and industrial design software, and such things that are choked will solve a considerable number of them. So, these five years are quite critical. But it is precisely the key in these five years. It will definitely react fiercely. The Sino-US conflict in the next five years will be more prominent, which is determined by the stage.
Second, the next five years will definitely be strong and I will be weak, and this cannot be changed. A few Chinese people say that we are almost done and balanced, but in fact there is still a gap with it, so it has a bad temper and is beautiful and strong, so we are under great pressure.
Third, the Taiwan issue tends to break out in the next five years, which is a high probability event. China's development has reached the stage of catching up. The United States is nervous. The Taiwan issue may break out and impact it. The United States still has a little advantage. It is a high probability event.
There may be another situation. The United States will be quite chaotic in the next five years. It is not ruled out that Trump will return in 2024. Of course, it seems that the Biden administration in the United States is going to punish Trump, and it is not even ruled out that he is arrested, but Trump now seems to have a high social support rate and internal conflicts in the United States will accumulate.The United States and China are different. Chinese culture emphasizes that everything is about oneself. Whenever there is something, one will reflect on oneself. There are a number of reflections on the Internet. It is the fault of the Chinese people if anything happens. Why do others hit you and you have to reflect on it? This is also a bit of a problem. Americans are not, the United States is marine culture , and everything goes wrong by others. I am a little worried that they will be more chaotic within and move the responsibility further out.
So, we must catch up with the United States for these factors, it is nervous; the Taiwan issue may break out and impact Sino-US relations, and the United States still has one remaining advantage to use; there are conflicts within the United States that need to spill overflow, which are all unfavorable to Sino-US relations. These need to be prepared, and the next five years will be quite difficult.
The key to dealing with it is to develop well in the country and not collapse the economy. I have said in many places that the key to winning a big country lies in its decisive victory, and the key to the domestic lies in its economy. The domestic economy is good and the domestic stability is very advantageous, and the outside game is very good. The key is to do a good job in the country.
Diplomacy is to deal with each other with each other and make steady progress, so be mentally prepared. Sino-US relations are very difficult in the next five years. The key to dealing with them is to better strategies at home and abroad, and to cultivate both internally and externally. Although it is difficult, if we do not make mistakes, we should be able to deal with the past. If we win over five years without wasting it, I believe that in five years, China and the United States will be more balanced. After equilibrium, we will have offensive and defensive one another. At that time, China will be much more proactive than now, and life will not be so sad.
