▲The Russian military is not good for war
Recently, with the Russian conflict in Russia and Ukraine, the Russian army has fallen into disagreement, and many people claim that Russia's "must lose" has begun to rampant. The main reason is that "Ukraine supported by NATO is far ahead of Russia in terms of population and war resources. If it continues to fight, the gap between Russia and Ukraine will only become bigger and bigger. Putin 's attack on Ukraine this time is the biggest miscalculation in its political career." However, as a sophisticated politician, when Putin considers "special military operations", he is really so naive that he only considers victory but not failure? Absolutely not! To solve this puzzle, we need to look at the Crimea incident in 2014.
▲CrimeaPutin won all the victory
In 2014, under Putin's personal planning, the Russian army occupied Crimea without bloodshed, and then used a referendum to establish Crimea's legal status as Russian territory. For a time, this act of directly occupying other countries' territory was opposed by the whole world. The United States and Europe also began to severe sanctions on Russia. Even the Chinese Foreign Ministry repeatedly stated that "China respects Ukraine's territorial integrity." Faced with extreme pressure, Putin used two tricks: one was to create bargaining chips when there was no bargaining chips, allowing Strekov and others to provoke the war in Ukraine, occupy a large area of Ukraine's territory, forcing the West to reach a compromise with Ukraine. Finally, through the Budapest Agreement, he won Crimea and gave up part of Ukraine, which was a profit overall; the other was to rely on Russia's endogenous tenacity to wait for the opportunity. Putin knows that Russia's biggest advantage is endurance. It can last for a long time with self-sufficient resources and can always maintain political stability by relying on Putin's super high internal support rate. However, Western countries' political parties are rotated frequently, and the people are more responsive to the insufficient energy supply caused by sanctions against Russia. However, a new party leader will come to Russia to compromise in a few years. The subsequent development was indeed as Putin expected. After Trump took office, the United States quickly established close relations with Putin, leaving the so-called Crimea behind. European countries such as Germany and France continued to use Russian natural gas , and no one took Ukraine's territory seriously. In the end, Crimea ended with a complete victory in this set.
▲The West is still weak and divided
Summary of the victory of Crimea, it can be seen that Putin has identified two basic facts, namely, Western countries are weak, divided and short-sighted, and it is impossible to implement long-term confrontation. Ukraine alone will definitely not be able to defeat Russia. And by 2022, have these two facts changed? Not!
Western countries are still weak, divided and short-sighted. As for the United States, which is the largest and strongest in NATO, although the Biden administration has given Ukraine a lot of military aid this year and has caused great military trouble to the Russian army, even children know that the Democratic Party will definitely lose control of at least one Congress, and the newly in power of the Republican Party of , will no longer allow Biden to maintain its existing military support to Ukraine.
As for France, the second largest, Macron itself is Putin's good friend. Both sides continue to talk on phone calls. Under the pressure of the United States, there are not many good things at present except for giving Ukraine a few Caesars. As for Germany, the third largest, the Scholz government has always adhered to the principle of looking at the support strength of other countries first and then determining the support method of Germany. At the same time, the support for Ukraine can be delayed, and the weapon support speed was satirized by the "snail" comics by the Ukrainians .The most ridiculous thing is of course the UK. It has changed three prime ministers a year and has not handled domestic affairs well. How strong can it support Ukraine in the future?
Especially Europe, which has now sanctioned Russia, has begun to face serious energy shortages and economic crisis. From early 2021 to August this year, the price of butter in Europe rose by 80%, cheese 43%, beef 27%, while milk powder rose by more than 50%. After losing Russia's cheap oil and gas, they can only buy high-priced natural gas from the United States. Although it seems that this winter should be able to survive this year, what about next year? Now large-scale demonstrations and demonstrations spread across European countries have become a climate, and these problems are required to be resolved quickly. The opposition parties only need to promise to make peace with Russia after they come to power. So it is very obvious who the people vote for.
▲Russia has a chance of winning
Ukraine still cannot fight Russia alone. The current situation is that although Ukraine does have some advantage on the battlefield, even if Ukraine can now receive continuous Western military support, it is impossible to drive Russia away from its territory in the short term. In the long run, the Ukrainian army's own weapons and equipment have been completed. Once the West cuts off military support, Russia can instantly counterattack to , Kiev, and . Therefore, this war compares the endurance and determination of the West and Russia.
