The storm is coming and the wind fills the building!
As the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment, the United States and the West continue to "fan the flames". Russia and Ukraine have obviously stood on a single-plank bridge. Both sides want to go to the other side, but only one side is destined to succeed.
But no matter who comes to the other side in the end, this process will be full of ups and downs, turbulence and accompanied by huge casualties and losses.
Since September, the situation on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine has undergone a significant change. The Ukrainian army has successively regained a large amount of regional control from the Russian army and also won the important town of Ukraine East. Although the Russian side claimed that this was a "strategic retreat" of , still aroused doubts and speculation from both Russia and the outside world.
Among them, Chechnya President Kadyrov bluntly stated that the Russian army had made "strategic mistakes" and should not continue to retreat, and proposed to use low-equivalent nuclear weapons to counterattack, but the proposal was directly rejected by Kremlin .
However, not long ago, Putin appointed General Suluvijin, who had outstanding military achievements and a lot of practical experience, as the commander-in-chief of Russia's special military operations in Ukraine, trying to turn the situation around. After taking office, Su Luoweikin did reflect his strong and decisive style of acting and his command ability in coordinating the operations of various military branches. The Russian army has recently launched nine consecutive air strikes on Ukraine, which was his work.
According to , the Russian Ministry of Defense , this round of air strikes aimed at hitting Ukraine's communications, decision-making and energy infrastructure, and seems to be trying to make Ukraine lose its ability to continue combat. Ukraine also confirmed that about 30% of the power facilities in Ukraine were hit, causing large-scale power outages.
20, Ukraine also stated that from now on, the whole country will implement strict power restrictions and adopt a rotating power outage system, and at the same time, it calls on the public to save electricity to the greatest extent.
can be seen that this round of air strike by the Russian army has indeed caused a huge impact and blow to Ukraine. However, the Russian air strikes did not destroy the morale of the Ukrainian army, but instead prompted the Ukrainian army to launch a stronger counterattack.
According to the latest news, the Ukrainian army, whose morale has risen sharply and has been assembled, is launching a fierce attack on the capital of Helsong Prefecture: Helsong City, with the " clamp-shaped offensive ".
If the Russian army had previously evacuated from Kharkov , bonus man and other places as 's "tactical retreat", then now the Ukrainian army is attacking Kherson , and the Russian army has actually "no retreat".
First, the Russian army's retreat in recent days has caused doubts. If it continues to retreat, Khlsson will lose his morale and the Kremlin will also face more doubts and pressure;
Second, Khlsson has extremely important strategic significance. On the 7th day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian army took Khlsson, which is also the first Ukrainian heavyweight captured by the Russian army. The importance of the important city can be seen;
, Not long ago, Khlsson held a "referendum to Russia" with Donetsk , Lugansk , and Zaporoze . These four places were eventually announced by the Russian side to become part of Russia. Although the United States and the United Nations General Assembly did not recognize the referendum results, the Russian side insisted on admitting it.
Therefore, in this context, Russia must defend Khlsson, otherwise how should we defend the next three places? How should the referendum result be defended?
In order to deal with the fierce offensive of the Ukrainian army, Russia made 13 important decisions.
decision one, Putin ordered that starting from the 20th, Donetsk 4 places will enter a "wartime state" , and required the Russian border areas to implement "medium emergency response" to increase the combat readiness levels of the Central Federal District of and the Southern District of .
If you remember correctly, this is the first time that Russia has declared a "wartime state" since World War II . Although it is only the 4 places of Donetsk, from the perspective of Russia, these four regions have joined Russia, and the impact of entering the "wartime state" is extremely far-reaching.
It is obvious that Putin also realized that the front line is in a tough battle, the intensity of the battle is no longer as fierce as before, and may even affect the Russian border areas. We must be prepared.
Before this, General Su Luoweijin, the newly appointed commander of the Russian side's operations in Ukraine, also took the initiative to admit that the overall situation on the front line was "tensive", and the situation in the Khlsong region was even more "uncomfortable" . Next, further action plans will be formulated based on the specific situation changes, and even "a very difficult decision" cannot be ruled out. What kind of "hard decision" is
?
Su Luoweijin did not make it clear, but I think it was nothing more than "Thirty-six strategies, and it is the best strategy".
Sulovijin
After all, it is indeed rare for Russia to publicly admit that the front-line war is unfavorable. Sulowikin also pointed out on the same day that the Russian army did not "blindly seek high-speed advancement". Russia will cherish every soldier while crushing the enemy's offensive.
implies that Russia is likely to focus on "defense" in the war situation in the Khlsong region and resists the Ukrainian army's attack, but does not seek to advance to areas outside Khlsong region.
The second decision, Putin began to "delegate power" downward.
19, Putin said that under the current circumstances, it is necessary to grant additional power to the chief executives of each region.
roughly summarized that these "extra powers" can be mainly divided into three categories:
, people's livelihood, 's power to take measures to maintain public order and ensure the stable development of industry and economy; , security, 's power to take measures to strengthen security guarantees, prevent terrorist attacks, ensure personnel safety and critical infrastructure security; , military, 's power to take measures such as military product production, strengthen military deployment, and enhance defense awareness and strength.
In general, the current situation is tense and Putin delegates power to the decentralization means that each region will formulate corresponding measures based on its own situation to ensure regional security and stability.
In the past, Putin made very few decisions. Moreover, judging from Putin's statement, this "delegation of power" is for various regions of the Russian Federation, not a specific Russian border area.
It is obvious that Putin is both "preparing for the future" in advance and preparing for the "bad situation", and may also be brewing big moves, but no matter what, this undoubtedly once again exacerbates the tension in the current situation.
The third decision was that Russia launched the drone "swarm" tactic, and , in an air strike against Ukraine, replaced the expensive cruise missile with a large number of suicide-destructive drones.
This tactical change of the Russian army has caused Ukraine to suffer a lot.
On the one hand, The Russian army's suicide drone has a small target, great power, and a large number. Ukraine does not have enough air defense system to intercept;
On the other hand, even if has enough air defense systems, the interception cost is ridiculously high. For example, a drone costs 20,000 US dollars, but the cost of an air defense missile may be as high as 500,000 US dollars. According to this situation, is "replaced" and Ukraine cannot bear it.
In this way, Ukraine will be in a dilemma. If is intercepted, 500,000 US dollars will be exchanged for 20,000 US dollars, which will be a loss; if it is not intercepted, the drone will launch an attack, which will also cause huge losses and blows to Ukraine.
It can be seen that Russia has indeed taken action this time, but Ukraine will not be indifferent. It is bound to launch a stronger counterattack and require the West to provide more long-range strike weapons to directly strike Russia. The United States and the West are also likely to "borrow the slope and defy the donkey" to meet Ukraine's requirements while using Ukraine to achieve the goal of "weaking Russia".
Of course, if the situation reaches this point, the probability of direct conflict between Russia and the West will also rise suddenly.
In particular, the current relationship between Russia and the West is already tense, and NATO is still holding a nuclear deterrent exercise, undoubtedly waving the "nuclear stick" in front of Russia.
It is worth noting that Russia's annual nuclear exercise was also held in late October. is likely to "collide" with NATO nuclear exercises, and the situation in will inevitably escalate again.
In addition, as a response and counter-attack to the United States and the West, the Russian Pacific Fleet recently held an exercise near Alaska, USA. During this period, two Tu-95MS strategic bombers flew to near Alaska, obviously did the opposite and "draw the sword" in the backyard of the United States.
This is not over. On the 20th, the Russian Pacific Fleet's "Perfect" frigate and the "Kanchaka Petropavlovsk" diesel-electric submarine held a joint combat exercise in the Sea of Japan, including the secret operation of submarine , the strikes on the "Imaginary Enemy" ships, and the "Perfect" frigate discovery and attack the enemy ships , etc.
Be careful, just a few days ago, the United States and Japan held a joint exercise in the Sea of Japan area. In which Japan, despite the Russian warning, tested the "Haimas" rocket launcher with a range of up to 300 kilometers in Hokkaido .
In addition, Japan was once known for its strong submarine technology, but now Russia has specially held exercises against submarines. is obviously "drawing the sword" to the United States and Japan, sending military deterrence signals.
Be careful, just in Obama , warn the US government that it is necessary to clarify which weapons can be provided to Ukraine and which cannot, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine must be avoided from evolving into a confrontation between Russia and the United States and NATO, and at the same time, draw boundaries.
Before this, Merkel also warned the West - must take Putin's words and the "red line" drawn seriously, and never regard it as a "bluff", and reserve "room to maneuver" for relations with Russia.
In short, whether it is the situation in Russia and Ukraine, or the relationship between Russia and the West, it is full of variables and unknown risks. I still hope that all parties will maintain rationality and restraint, calm the war as soon as possible, and restore peace.
