After attacking Kiev for many consecutive days, Putin announced that four regions including Donetsk will enter the wartime state from the 20th. At the same time, medium emergency response was implemented in 8 border areas including Crimea , and will improve combat readiness level.
According to the Russian Wartime State Law, four regions including Donetsk will set up defense centers, and areas with medium emergency response will also send more troops to implement special controls on key infrastructure, and take all necessary measures to ensure supply on the front line, and maintain the combat effectiveness of the Russian army to the greatest extent possible.
US media " New York Times " claimed that is the first time since World War II , the Kremlin has released the "wartime status" signal . Therefore, US media interpreted this action as the situation in Russia and Ukraine is about to enter a new stage.
In addition, the Russian army has also raised the allowance standard for soldiers, and soldiers serving will receive at least US$3,100 per month through partial mobilization orders. This income level is not low, and it even meets the standards of professional American soldiers. It can be seen that the Russian army is trying to improve morale and prepare for big moves.
It is reported that the mobilization activities will be completed soon. Although the eastern Wu region has been in a state of war, this military control is implemented in the main body of the Russian Federation. means that the battlefield situation has become serious and the conflict may further escalate .
Although the Russian army had previously launched a large-scale air strike against Ukraine and warned the Ukrainian army not to carry out terrorist activities, the Ukrainian army continued to shell Donetsk and other areas, and assembled a large number of troops in the direction of Khlsong and Zaporoze , ready to launch an attack at any time.
. The situation in Khlsong is tense, and the Russian army faces a difficult choice
Putin pointed out that the Ukrainian army is still launching terrorist attacks, destroying civilian infrastructure and assassinating local government officials. The theater commander Su Luoweijin also said that the Ukrainian army may adopt a banned operation in the Khlsong area, and "the situation on the front line is unsettling" . Russian intelligence agencies said the Ukrainian army plans to launch a large-scale shelling of the dam of the new Kahovka hydropower station.
It is reported that the Kahovka Hydropower Station provides a large amount of electricity for the local area, and it is also an important transportation route, spanning the east and west banks of the Dnieper River. Once it is bombed, if the dam breaks, will flood the Russian army and thousands of Ukrainian people indiscriminately, causing disastrous consequences .
On October 18, Zaporo Thermal Nuclear Power Plant was attacked by the Ukrainian army, causing a large-scale power outage. According to Russian reports, the Ukrainian army used the "Haimas" multiple rocket launcher provided by the United States to attack local government agencies and some industrial facilities, and invested more than 30 landing craft to launch ground attacks on nuclear power plant .
Since the Russian army occupied the area, the Ukrainian army has been provoking near the Zaporotherapeutic nuclear power plant, shelling residential areas and transportation systems, and even using suicide drones to attack the internal areas of the nuclear power plant. So far, most of the Ukrainian army have failed to succeed in most of the attacks, and no nuclear leakage accidents have occurred in the nuclear power plant.
From the perspective of the situation, although the large-scale counterattack launched by the Ukrainian army was at the end of its strength, it was still threatening, and the attack without any war principle put the Russian army in a tough battle. Sulovikin said that the situation in Khlsong area was tense and the situation was unsettling, and the Russian army had to be forced to make a "hard decision" .
What is a "hard decision"? It may be that it is the evacuation of the city of Kherson, which can prove this from the perspective of action. On the 19th, Saldo, the head of Kherson, claimed that all government agencies and people in the city would evacuate before the Ukrainian army launched the shelling, and the transfer was expected to take about a week to complete.
Sulovijin also pointed out that the Ukrainian army suffered 600 to 1,000 casualties every day, with heavy losses. Under the instructions of NATO , it launched a crazy indiscriminate attack, and even did not consider the casualties of the people on their own and regional areas, but the Russian army did not pursue the risk of attacks with the lives of soldiers. It means that the Ukrainian army is too hard, the situation of the Russian army is unfavorable, and does not want to engage in unnecessary battles and sacrifices, so it may choose to temporarily retreat .
Sulovikin stressed that the terrorist attacks that the Ukrainian army, even its compatriots, prove that it is an absolute "criminal regime", and Russia and Ukraine are the same nation, and Russia will do its best to protect the security of the Ukrainian people. hopes that Ukraine will become a friendly country to Russia that is out of NATO's control.
. In Ukraine's view, the Russian army is retreating step by step. The evacuation of civilians from is completely a population plunder. Khlsong must be resolutely taken back.
2. The West encouraged Ukraine to fight, and the Russian army was ready
Regarding Russia's actions, Podoriak, adviser to the Ukrainian Presidential Office, pointed out that Russia and Ukraine have been in a "total war" for eight months, and Russia's "wartime state" is meaningless; Biden responded that Russia has fallen into a "very difficult" situation; Western media also generally criticized Russia and encouraged Ukraine to continue to fight.
However, this is not the case. Russia announced that the four places have entered a wartime state, not only is it not a dead end, but is preparing to win with all its might. It is likely to be a signal of the escalation of special military operations. The following four preparations have been laid for this:
First, improve the authority of the Russian military. Although four areas including Donetsk have been incorporated into Russia, they are still not fully controlled by the Russian army, and some areas are still occupied by the Ukrainian army. Therefore, the Russian army is fighting "in the territory". In order to better complete defensive combat tasks, the Russian army will be granted the highest management authority.
Second, protect the safety of the people and take the initiative in public opinion. Ukraine has always ignored the Russian warning and continued to crack down on infrastructure and civilian targets in Russia's occupied areas, causing a large number of civilian casualties, causing panic to continue to spread, causing great interference to the Russian military occupation. Orderly transferring people can reduce the pressure on combat and management, and can also condemn Ukraine from the commanding heights of public opinion.
Third, ensure the safety of the rear and relieve worries. can be seen from the previous bombing of the Russian rear airport and bridge. The Ukrainian army's infiltration operations were very in-depth and had mastered a large amount of confidential information from the Russian army, so it was able to complete a series of assassination and sabotage tasks. The wartime state is more conducive to the Russian army to eliminate Ukrainian agents and ensure the safety of key infrastructure.
fourth, lift tactical restrictions. After evacuating residents in the war zone, the Russian army was able to use fists and no longer throw themselves into trouble, but instead adopted bombing tactics that had not been used before and acted simply and efficiently.
While the Russian army was preparing for the counterattack, the Ukrainian army's offensive was obviously at the end of its strength, and the situation was not optimistic: First, the Ukrainian army's counterattack lasted for more than a month, and suffered heavy losses and was exhausted from . The Russian army has basically completed the mobilization work, and there are vitality forces about to join the battlefield, and there are also tens of thousands of Russian-Belarus coalition forces on the northern part of Ukraine on the border.
Secondly, from the perspective of the international situation, the military aid of various countries to Ukraine is declining . On the 19th, after the United States stopped high-end weapons and ammunition, its ally Israel also announced that it would not provide weapons and equipment to Ukraine. The Ukrainian army will face a serious shortage of heavy equipment and high-end weapons and ammunition, which is not conducive to the city's tough battle and the offensive momentum will inevitably be hindered.
Furthermore, European and American countries have sent signals of peace talks, , Ukraine and anti-war sentiment is spreading, , anti-government movements have erupted in many countries, and the difficulty of aiding Ukraine is increasing.
Finally, winter is coming, and 30% of Ukraine's power plants are destroyed, and is likely to lose without fighting in the cold winter. But despite the difficulties, Western countries still encouraged Ukraine to continue to launch an offensive, especially instigating a strategic decisive battle in the Khlson region.
If the victory is still not possible, this anti-war sentiment will greatly affect the aid of Western countries to Ukraine. Zelensky, who has lost foreign aid, is likely to lose the entire war soon.
At present, Russia has evacuated the Khlsong people on the east bank of the Dnieper River and concentrated their efforts to defend the west bank. If can delay the Ukrainian army's counter-offensive momentum before winter, it will be victorious. It will not only gain respite and redeployment time, but also allow Ukraine and Western countries to bear greater energy and economic blows.
. The situation has changed and the conflict has entered a critical moment
Ukrainian armed forces have repeatedly emphasized that they will recover Khlsun within the year, but now it looks like this plan may be difficult to achieve. Western countries are more clear about the interests of their interests. They have already prepared for Ukraine's defeat early on. Whether to continue to aid Ukraine in the future depends entirely on the outcome of the Battle of Khlsson. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is about to enter the most critical period:
First, the Russian army will face crazy attacks and carry out difficult defensive operations. Although the Russian army has completed three steps in mobilization and recruitment, air strikes, and improving combat readiness, it has not changed the overall situation in the southern theater. The Ukrainian army is still attacking while suffering huge losses, and the Russian army passively defends.
Once the east coast is lost, Russia will lose 1/3 of the land in Khlsong area and water sources in Crimea. Therefore, the Russian army will definitely defend the city to the death, strengthen the walls and clear the fields, and urban offensive and defensive wars will often become huge "meat grinders" , and both Russia and Ukraine will suffer huge losses.
Second, Russia and Ukraine's battlefield behavior will determine the will of the people. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not the same as the geopolitical conflicts in other regions. For example, Gulf War , Middle East War , Iraq War , etc., are all for oil, land, and the US dollar. Russia values population more. Both countries have vast land and sparse populations. Whoever can win over more people is the real winner.
So even if the situation is critical, Russia will transfer Ukrainian residents in the war zone to its homeland. On this issue, Ukraine is obviously at a disadvantage. First of all, the four most densely populated eastern states have fallen into the hands of Russia, with a large number of people losing.
Secondly, the Ukrainian army's indiscriminate combat methods have aroused dissatisfaction among many parties, and even Western countries have been encouraging Zelensky to "fight to the last Ukrainian ". As the war progresses, more and more people will turn to Russia, and the dissatisfied Ukrainians will become the last straw that broke the Zelensky government.
According to Surovikin's behavior, even if the city of Khlsong is lost, it will immediately launch a counterattack and retake it back. Russia cannot accept the loss of the region politically and militaryally. 's repeated offensive and defensive wars may completely turn the city into ruins . At present, the Ukrainian army has assembled 60,000 soldiers in the Hrsong Market and carried out air strikes and artillery attacks on infrastructure and some military targets, and a battle is about to break out.
