After the Russian-Ukraine war showed a clear escalation trend, the Beixi No. 1 pipeline, the most important natural gas transportation pipeline between Russia and Europe, suddenly exploded, adding more uncertain factors to the already tense Russian-Ukraine war situation.
Now Ukraine The four eastern states have completed the referendum. Russia announced with a high profile that it will do whatever it takes to defend its territory. This means that if Europe and the United States do not intend to directly participate in this war, no matter how Ukraine fights, it will actually be impossible for Russia to release its war potential.
At the same time, the European energy crisis is becoming increasingly serious. Faced with the upcoming winter, the attitudes of various countries towards Russia have also softened, especially when the Italian domestic right-wing parties may take over the regime, the rulers of EU powers must consider whether the right-wing forces in their domestic countries will take advantage of the situation if they continue to waste like this with Russia.
In short, the situation in Russia and Ukraine seems to have reached its most dangerous moment. Russia has publicly stated that it may use nuclear weapon , but in fact, there is an opportunity for peace in danger. The reason is very simple. If the war reaches this point, unless Europe and the United States want the world to be destroyed, there is no way to continue.
In this sensitive time, the impact of the Beixi natural gas pipeline being bombed is more complicated. First of all, for Russia-EU relations, the EU wants to improve relations with Russia in essence to solve its own energy crisis. If this greatest attraction is gone, then the EU will no longer have the urgency to improve relations with Russia.
In this sense, if the explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline is man-made, it is obviously more likely that it was planned by the United States or Ukraine. Because the people who want to continue the war are the Zelensky administration and the United States.
But everything has two sides. If the Nord Stream pipeline was really bombed by the United States, it would be an opportunity for Russia and the European Union to repair the relationship. Your United States says every day that it wants to reorganize the ally system and protect the interests of allies, but it ends up doing this kind of thing that cuts off the source of the cause and forces allies to death. Wouldn’t it be self-dismantling the united front of NATO ?
Once the matter is found out, it will become a trouble for the United States. It is not conducive to the United States' contact with allies to impose sanctions on Russia. If the war did not begin, Europe and the United States would not impose sanctions on Russia. It would make sense to say that the United States did this, but now the war has broken out. The EU has basically cut off the channels for importing natural gas from Russia because of sanctions.
Isn’t it too stupid to do such an explosion in order to achieve something that has achieved the US’s goals?
But except for the United States, Russia and the EU obviously do not have the motivation to bomb the Nord Stream pipeline, although the two sides have fought fiercely recently, for Russia, they have long wanted to end the war. Cutting off natural gas supply to the EU is just a means to force the EU to give up supporting Ukraine and let the war end soon.
really blows up the Nord Stream pipeline, which is equivalent to giving up the possibility of ending the war in the short term, which is obviously not in Russia's interests. For the EU, the Nord Stream Pipeline is the EU's "retreat". Once the energy crisis continues to worsen and when they really can't accept it, they can prolong their lives by improving relations with Russia.
is obviously not realistic to let the EU take the initiative to destroy its almost only retreat against the backdrop of a serious energy crisis. From this perspective, the EU and Russia actually have no motivation to blow up this pipeline.
Since it is unlikely that it was bombed by Russia, Europe and the United States, who else could be the manipulator behind this matter? The official investigation results have not yet been released, and no one can give a definite answer. However, based on the principle that whoever benefits the most will be the murderer, we can reasonably infer.
As mentioned in the previous article, compared with Russia and Europe, the United States is undoubtedly the most likely planner. After all, it is in the interests of the United States to destroy the relationship between Russia and Europe and let the Russian-Ukraine war be delayed for a long time.
However, the strategy of exploding natural gas pipelines seems a bit too stupid for the United States. It is easy to steal chickens but lose money, but instead become disunited from the EU.
But if you change your thinking, there are countries in addition to the United States, that is, if you want Russia and Ukraine to continue to fight Russia, and don’t have to worry about the EU’s backlash, there are also countries. For example, as soon as this incident happened, it took the initiative to stand up to "thank the United States" Polish , which is very suspicious.
First of all, Poland, as a NATO country that has clearly supported Ukraine and Russia in this war, is different from the major powers of Western Europe and , and its dependence on Russian energy is not that serious. Secondly, compared with the United States, Poland, as a member of the EU, is not afraid of being a major EU power after the matter is exposed.
To sum up, compared with the United States, some small Eastern European countries that are firmly anti-Russia may be the probability of planning the murderer of the North Stream Pipeline explosion, but it is a little more likely.
