Unconsciously, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has lasted for more than 200 days. During this period, the two sides have been on the hot searches on social media in various countries around the offense and defense of military centers, the "decapitation" actions against generals and heavyweights, and the competition in the fields of economy and diplomacy.
On September 16, when meeting with Indian Prime Minister Modi , Putin gave Modi a "peace of mind". Putin told Modi that he understood India's concerns about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and that Russia will work hard to end the conflict as soon as possible, but Ukrainian refused negotiations and tried to resolve the problem with military means.
Now, after launching a counterattack against the Russian army and regaining important cities such as Ijium , Kiev can be said to have greatly increased confidence. The signal released by Zelensky is very clear - before completely defeating the Russian army and driving the Russian army out of Ukraine, we will never renegotiate with Russia.
Of course, Russia, which said it was about to negotiate with Ukraine, also knew that "there was no ceasefire at this time". The bargaining chips that could not be won on the battlefield were simply impossible at the negotiating table, not to mention that , NATO, led by the United States, is still in full swing.
September 17, Putin was busy struggling, EU is also suffering from the upcoming cold winter. At least these three things are worth noting.
The first thing is, Türkiye gives Russia a "big gift". On September 16, Putin and Erdogan had specific exchanges on issues such as "natural gas transportation". Putin said that one quarter of the natural gas exported by Russia to Türkiye will be settled using rubles.
Before this, Russia and Turkey had reached an agreement on "how to turn into ", and Türkiye was willing to bypass the US dollar and directly use currencies such as rubles to settle part of the trade with Russia.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey's choice has been unpredictable. Türkiye, which is striving to mediate the conflict, chose to export fuel and drones to Ukraine while deepening economic and military cooperation with Russia. Among all NATO member states, Türkiye is the one who takes the most unreasonable move.
Putin is happy to see Türkiye's success. According to the latest news, Erdogan issued an ultimatum to the United States. If the United States refuses to export F-16 fighter jet to Turkey, Türkiye may turn to purchasing weapons from other countries, such as Russian weapons.
Previously, Russia had always wanted to import drones from Türkiye, but Erdogan refused to agree. For this reason, Putin also specifically asked for help from Erdogan, but there was no result.
Erdogan's foreign strategy is not to pay for the interests of the United States, nor to stand up for Russia, but ultimately to safeguard Türkiye's interests. But as long as Türkiye does not turn to the United States, Russia can be satisfied.
Whether it is satirizing the EU for "causing trouble", causing trouble to Finnish , which is preparing to join NATO, or preparing to send weapons orders to Russia, Erdogan has given Putin a lot of "big gifts" during this period. Putin once said at the Oriental Economic Forum that Russia will insist on "de-dollarization", but if it wants to get what it wants, it is useless to just say ruthlessly. Russia needs other countries to provide strong help. India, Turkey, Iran and even the EU are all economies that Russia strives to win over.
The second thing is Putin drew a red line for the United States. " New York Times " and other US media revealed that behind the Ukrainian army's advance in Kharkov , there is a shadow of the United States' suggestions, and Sullivan and Mili both participated in the formulation of military plans.
Anyone with discerning eyes knows that with Ukraine's strength, he can understand the Russian army's deployment and specific trends so clearly. If it has nothing to do with the United States, who would believe it?
After being unable to bear it, on September 15, Russia laid a "red line" for the American Chinese painting . Zakharova said that if the United States provides Ukraine with long-range missile , it will be regarded as "directly participating in the war", and Russia will retain the right to "use all means" to defend Russian territory.
Russian Ambassador to the United States Antonov said that Ukraine requires the United States to provide it with dozens of weapons including drones and anti-submarine missiles .
If it succeeds, some Russian cities, industrial equipment and transportation hubs will fall into the Ukrainian army's attack range. At that time, the Ukrainian army might use powerful firepower to destroy the strategic depth of the opponent like the Russian army, which is not the result Putin wants to see.
Of course, Russia has warned the United States a lot, which does not mean that the United States will listen to Russia. From providing defensive weapons to turning to providing offensive weapons, to blatantly providing intelligence and military command to the Ukrainian army, the United States is getting further and further on the way to provoke Russia. In response to this, Russia was furious but helpless, because the Russian army could not directly attack the United States and NATO targets.
But from another perspective, the reason why Russia has tolerated it is mainly because the Russian army still has the initiative and advantage and hastily withdrawn from Ijium, which also considers the factor of logistics supply. After all, winter is coming soon, and the long front will provide Ukraine with the opportunity to severely damage the Russian military's supply line.
If one day, Ukrainian army has an absolute advantage on the battlefield, and Russia, which is angry and angry, may turn to retaliate against NATO, , but this is unlikely to happen.
The third thing is that there is a quarrel within the EU. On September 16, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said that the EU sanctions on Russia are equivalent to energy dwarfs sanctions on energy giants, which will not bring any benefits.
Orban believes that sanctions should be imposed by the strong on the weak, rather than doing the opposite. Sanctions against Russia will not achieve anything, but will make the EU economy worse.
htmlOn September 15, the European Parliament passed an important resolution, that is, "no longer treat Hungary as a completely democratic country", and also decided to suspend providing Hungary with tens of billions of euros. Orban called it a joke in this regard.
The energy crisis has cost the EU a heavy price. In addition to bringing inconvenience to people's lives, it has also severely hit EU industry. As natural gas prices rise sharply, many EU companies have to raise prices on export products, resulting in EU companies losing some competitive advantages in the global market.
Orban has a lot of satirized the EU's sanctions against Russia, but Germany has not changed its attitude. The EU gave Hungary a warning at this time, which obviously had the meaning of hitting Orban.
In another month, when the temperature turns sharply, Germany Austria may have a large-scale chaos. For , the real challenge for Germany is still to come. Once the EU cannot resist the cold winter, this already disarray alliance will accelerate toward the tear.
As for whether the EU can survive the crisis, you might as well wait quietly. =
