The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reached its 143rd day. There is still no sign of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian army continues to bomb Donetsk , and also bombs the central city of Ukraine Vinnitsa . There is a high probability that It was discovered that there was a gunpowder depot or a Ukrainian army command post in the area.
Judging from the recent bombing operations, the Russian military is now becoming more and more liberal in bombing targets in Ukraine. The reason is that the cost of military operations that do not cause collateral casualties is too high.
According to Ukrainian President adviser Arestovich’s understanding, the Russian army has launched a new round of fierce offensive, and bombing has been launched in Kharkov, Nikolayev and Vinnitsa . Earlier, Russian President Putin also revealed a piece of information: the Russian military has not taken any serious action in Ukraine.
Are the Russian troops really not serious?
①. Putin is right in saying this. If the Russian army is really serious about it, the Ukrainian army’s Ministry of National Defense and Kiev high-level officials have long been bombed. But obviously, the Russian army did not bomb the high-level command post of the Ukrainian army. This shows that Russia’s goal is not to achieve high-level leadership in Kiev, but to complete control of Donbass and the entire Russian-speaking area.
②. If the Russian army really intensifies its bombing, the strategic bomber will also be used. However, so far, there is no case of the Russian army using large-scale bombers . This shows that the Russian army is still carrying out its planned actions step by step. plan.
③. Russia has not declared war on Ukraine so far, which means that this military operation still has its special characteristics. As for whether it will change in the future, it is difficult to say. It depends on how Ukraine is armed. In fact, we can see this phenomenon. The more powerful Ukraine is armed, the harder it will be beaten. Although the price paid by the Russian army is also It will be bigger.
After talking about the Russia-Ukraine war situation, let’s look at other news.
French President Macron expressed his latest attitude towards the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is very contradictory and in a dilemma. France does not want the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to continue to spread, but it also does not want Russia to win. What Macron means is that he hopes that France can achieve a ceasefire between the two sides by supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia without intervening in the war.
The background of Macron’s attitude is that Russia’s Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline to Europe is under maintenance. France has expressed deep doubts about whether the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline can resume transportation as scheduled, but Russia has also given a reply. , this is just an annual maintenance, and the West should not magnify this "supply cutoff".
Can the West really achieve its goal of getting Russia to withdraw its troops through sanctions? At present, it seems that it is not possible at all.
①. European and American sanctions on Russia have reached their limit. Now there is only one last way to go, which is not to buy Russian natural gas . However, if EU does not buy Russian natural gas, the price of natural gas will soar several times. Even more than ten times, this can be said to be worse for the EU's economy and will cause huge harm to the EU's economy. At present, Germany cannot afford this price.
Therefore, although the EU has imposed sanctions on Russia at the level of oil embargo, it is impossible for the EU to interrupt cooperation with Russia in the field of natural gas.
②. The United States has exhausted its sanctions against Russia. The problem is that the trade volume between the United States and Russia is only about 20 billion U.S. dollars a year. Even if Russia does not do any trade with the United States, it will not have an impact on Russia's development.
Therefore, those countries that hope to intensify sanctions on Russia do not have close cooperation with Russia, such as Poland , Lithuania and the United States.
③. Even though Western sanctions will bring heavy costs to Russia, Russia will not give up its established military goals, because the Russian army has now stabilized its tactics and the pressure from the West has reached its extreme. Since Russia can now accept this situation , then it won’t be a problem next time.
Let’s look at Putin’s latest attitude. It can be said that Putin is ready for a long-term confrontation with the West and has two plans.
First, Putin signed a decree on providing armed forces with overseas operations, providing strong support for overseas military operations.
Putin's move is to ensure that the Russian military will not be troubled by unurgent problems and insufficient weapons and ammunition when operating overseas, and gives the Russian government greater power to temporarily allocate resources. Including supplies, mobilizing production, allocating national reserve supplies, etc.
Putin suddenly signed such a decree, which is obviously closely related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, or the Russian army is preparing to launch a larger-scale military operation. After all, the Russian army's third phase goal is very ambitious, not only to control Donbass, but also to capture Kharkiv, Nikolayev and Odessa.
I have to say that this trick is very unusual. This can directly allow the armed forces to concentrate resources for military operations, provide great legal support for solving the current problems of the Russian army, and also make preparations and plans for long-term wars that may fall into the future.
Second, Putin signed a decree on restricting foreign agents. The purpose is to prevent these people from engaging in infiltration and intelligence.
Putin's move will largely prevent Western-backed organizations and individuals from carrying out incitement activities in Russia and collecting some Russian weapons and equipment technology.
The two decrees signed by Putin can be understood as one is for foreign operations, and the other is for preventing infiltration. The West has an overwhelming advantage in information technology, especially in terms of public opinion. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a large part of international public opinion was controlled by the West. Limiting the West's influence in public opinion has obviously become one of Putin's current goals.
It has to be said that there are at least three points about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Russia.
First, Russia is at a complete disadvantage compared to the West in the battle for public opinion this time. After all, the West sticks together to keep warm. Whether it is NATO , the European Union or the G7, they all rely on their large numbers of people and relatively unified information positions. Russia is in It cannot compete with the West at this level.
Second, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has given Russia a huge wake-up call. Not every battlefield is the same as Syria . The enemy's weapons are lagging behind and they do not even have the ability to knock out a fighter . However, the battlefield in Ukraine is different. Since the Ukrainian army experienced the tragedy of the surrender of the established establishment in 2014, it has accelerated the reform of its armed forces. With the training of NATO commanders, the resistance of the Ukrainian army has become much stronger. Although Putin said that the Russian army was not serious, the improvement of the resistance of the Ukrainian army is obvious to all.
Third, NATO’s arms supply has given the Ukrainian army the ability to fight against the Russian army for a long time. Although Russia knows this, it has no ability to prevent Western weapons from entering Ukraine. Even after entering Ukraine and becoming a target, the Russian army still failed to wipe out all these Western equipment. It has to be said that if the Russian army does not purchase drones in large quantities, it will only lose more manned fighter jets.
