If the time went back to February this year, no one would have thought that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine would last from the early spring when the ice and snow had just melted to the scorching summer. It would gradually change from a Hollywood blockbuster with ups and downs of plot to a long and smelly one. Mother-in-law Korean drama! In February, just when the whole world thought it would be a devastating blitzkrieg, Russia suddenly launched precise attacks on key military facilities, airports, command posts, and ammunition depots in Ukraine, causing Ukraine's military capabilities to fall into a state of Paralyzed, Putin waved his hand, and the Russian army divided its troops into Ukraine in three directions from the east, north, and south. Using a strategy and tactics of great depth and penetration, they quickly rushed to Kiev .
However, Ukraine’s will to resist under desperate circumstances is very stubborn, like meat that cannot be cut, cooked or chewed with a hob!
However, due to the inability of Russia to keep up with its logistical supplies, it could only surround Kiev but not attack. Moreover, it also had to take into account public opinion and was afraid of launching artillery shells. As a result, Russia performed very poorly in the first stage, with a large number of tanks , armored vehicle was destroyed by Ukraine.
The Russian army suffered heavy losses, and Putin was trapped in the quagmire of war for a while! Trapped between a rock and a hard place, surrounded by enemies on all sides! Putin is too difficult! When Putin waved his hand, how could he have expected that Ukraine’s resistance would be so fierce!
At the critical moment, Putin changed his tactics, started to concentrate superior forces, and worked step by step, shrinking the front line, focusing on attacking the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine and Mariupol in the south. He no longer had any more worries and used a large number of Soviet-era weapons The remaining artillery shells exploded, and when the Ukrainian army was completely exhausted, the tanks and infantry came again. Although this strategy is more time-consuming, it greatly reduces the consumption of the Russian army.
The Russian army is like pawns in chess, moving forward step by step, taking strongholds one by one and fighting city by city. Now Russia's green pawns have not only defeated the red pawns, horses and cannons of Ukraine and the West, but The next step is to get rid of the rook, knight, bishop and boss.
In the south, Russia occupied Zaporozhye , Hersun, and Nikolayev parts of the country, especially the Azov Steel Plant, a monster covered with reinforced concrete, and opened up Dun. The road corridor from Bath to Crimea can not only strengthen the control of Crimea, but also become Russia's inland sea.
In the east, Russia finally captured Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. In the Battle of Severodonetsk, Russia deliberately encircled three and missed one, and used the city of Severodonetsk as bait to eat them bit by bit. The loss of experienced Ukrainian veterans who came to the rescue greatly consumed Ukraine's effective strength. It not only destroyed the Ukrainian army's fighting will, but also robbed a large amount of Western artillery military aid.
After Russia captured Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, it was equivalent to controlling the entire Lugansk region. It can be said to be a major victory on the battlefield. Where will Putin point his sword next?
Putin told Defense Minister Shoigu in Kremlin that the troops responsible for taking Luhansk should properly rest and replenish combat readiness materials and personnel, and meritorious generals and soldiers should be rewarded based on their merits to boost morale, while others The army in the direction should continue the attack.
The Donbass region is composed of Donetsk and Luhansk. Luhansk has been captured, so Donetsk will definitely bear the brunt, and the important town of Donetsk, Kramatorsk City and The city of Slavyansk will be the focus of this campaign.
They are not only the industrial center and transportation hub of Donetsk, but also the defensive base of Donetsk, and even the defensive base of Ukraine.
Since the Crimean crisis in 2014, Ukraine, with the help of NATO , has spent seven years building intensive defense positions in the cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
Its fortifications are made of multi-layered thickened reinforced concrete. It is difficult for ordinary artillery shells to damage it. It is equivalent to a super giant steel monster, or it can be regarded as a collection of hundreds of Azov steel plants.
Zelensky knew that this area was Ukraine's Maginot Line of Defense. Once it was broken through, there would be no danger to defend the Ukrainian Great Plains, so not only did he dispatch more than 100,000 main troops to guard it, but he also stored a large amount of artillery, ammunition, and food here. Waiting for supply resources.
Jiuge estimates that once the Russian army that captured Lugansk has finished resting, the decisive battle in Donetsk, which is also the most brutal decisive battle between Russia and Ukraine, will begin. The Russian army will start from Severodonetsk, Bonliman, Izyum, Popasnaya and other places sent troops at the same time, encircling Slavyansk and Kramatorsk from all sides.
When the time comes, once the battlefield situation is unfavorable to Ukraine, Zelensky will definitely not dare to say harsh words, and Russia and Ukraine will usher in real negotiations! After all, the basis for negotiation was laid on the battlefield, and the compromise in negotiation is that one party cannot tolerate any greater loss!
But the decisive battle in Donetsk will never be easy for Putin. It will definitely be much more difficult than capturing Severonetsk and the Azov Steel Plant. They are facing Ukraine's strongest combat force. Ukraine's The strongest defense, Donetsk may really have to gnaw at it bit by bit, and it may last until the cold wind and late autumn, or even the snowy winter.
The Russian army has voluntarily abandoned the strategic location of Snake Island in the southern theater of Ukraine. Obviously the Odessa area is no longer the most important target of the Russian army in the next stage, but Odessa is still very important. Once Occupying Odessa is equivalent to occupying the entire Ukrainian coast, and Ukraine will become a landlocked country! The Russian army will definitely send some troops to contain it, but it will not be the main direction of attack.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted four and a half months. Not only Russia and Ukraine have entered a period of war fatigue, but Europe is also tired. Last month, the three European giants, France, Germany and Italy, visited Ukraine together to put pressure on Zelensky, hoping that he can compromise.
After all, Europe knows that without Russian oil and natural gas , it will be difficult for Europe to survive this shivering winter, and the food crisis and energy crisis in the entire world also require Russia and Ukraine to end this war as soon as possible. Inflation in the entire world As this conflict worsens, it may even evolve into the next worldwide economic crisis.
htmlThe 99-year-old former US Secretary of State Kissinger judged that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will eventually have three outcomes. The first is that Russia captures Donbass and wins. The second is that Russia will fail and even Crimea will be lost. In the third, Russia and Ukraine will return to the position they were in before the war started in February this year.However, Jiuge believes that unless NATO directly sends troops to intervene, this battle will end with Russia's victory no matter how long it lasts. The little suckling pig of Ukraine may be torn apart at any time, and the occupied land wants to take back its wishful thinking! Successfully joining NATO is even more impossible! The comedy presidential actor is harming the country!
