In the past few months, the United States has made many adjustments to its Taiwan policy, from arms sales to Taiwan, to a delegation of congressmen visiting Taiwan, to the official website of the U.S. State Department revising its description of the Taiwan issue, to Biden publicly stating in Tokyo The US military wants to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and the White House clarifies the US position. From forming a circle against China in the Asia-Pacific to trying to introduce NATO into the Asia-Pacific, the United States has been looking for ways to more effectively intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue, but its "efforts "It hasn't been very successful.
And Skylar Mastro, who recently served as the strategic planner of the US Indo-Pacific Command, poured cold water on various forces in the United States that are keen to interfere in China's internal affairs, saying that in Taiwan On the issue, the US military cannot stop the unified actions of the People's Liberation Army. According to simulation results over the years, China will defeat the United States within a week after the (possible) Taiwan Strait conflict breaks out.
Mastro announced the entire process of the Taiwan Strait war to " Sun ", saying that the People's Liberation Army will first launch a large-scale missile salvo to destroy the only effective air force base on the island. The next target will be the island. air defense system , and attacks on network and satellite communications will also be launched to ensure that the US military cannot rush to rescue. When the air force and air defense forces were suppressed, safe landings became possible.
In the end, Mastro estimated that the first phase of the battle would only take three days, and after the People's Liberation Army landed on the island, the United States could do nothing because China had no intention of fighting a "protracted war", so "occupying" Taiwan Island means victory.
Compared with the United States’ previous eagerness to demonstrate its deterrent capabilities on the Taiwan Strait issue, Mastro’s suggestion sounds a bit too pessimistic. You must know that in fact, in the eyes of many American experts, even if Taiwan is no longer The "unsinkable aircraft carrier " should also continue to be under the influence of the United States.
On the other hand, if mainland China is allowed to control Taiwan Island, the influence of the United States in East Asia will collapse, and Japan and South Korea will then demand to break away from the control of the United States. This will cause the United States to be squeezed out of East Asia and leave this richest land in the future. In areas with development potential, the United States' global hegemony will no longer exist.
Because of this, the two parties in the United States have quite the same attitude on the Taiwan Strait issue, but they have always been arguing about the specific methods to intervene in Taiwan Strait affairs.
However, this kind of wishful thinking by Americans is more of a "good wish" based on the strong strength of the US military. Mastro's inference brought such people back to reality, forcing them to face a The question is, if the US military is no longer able to crush other countries, how should the United States choose?
Of course, not only Americans themselves are very concerned about this issue, but other Asia-Pacific countries are also very concerned. It can be said that when the military hegemony of the United States declines, not only the Taiwan Strait region, but the entire world will become very different.
All the moral arguments attached to US military hegemony will all collapse. Nowadays, the United States frequently advocates "partners with shared values", "rules-based international order", "democratic and free Indo-Pacific", "maintaining freedom of navigation", etc. It seems that it interferes in other countries' internal affairs and suppresses other countries' living space. The fundamental motivations are all out of the most selfless love.
This kind of moral argument safeguards the interests of the United States to the greatest extent possible and suppresses the right to speak of other countries, including U.S. allies. However, in reality, it is inevitable to encounter a self-contradictory fact-the U.S. aircraft carrier has been building up its reputation for many years. Wandering at the doorsteps of other countries, even close allies of the United States such as Japan and South Korea have large U.S. troops stationed in their countries.
It can be seen that the relevant statements of the United States are completely a guise for public opinion propaganda. Military hegemony is the confidence that it can act recklessly everywhere. Now the confidence of the United States is insufficient. The core reason is that the United States can no longer maintain military superiority around the Taiwan Strait.
Compared with the past practice of the United States frequently sending aircraft carrier fleets to China's doorstep to threaten, now the United States aircraft carriers no longer dare to approach the Chinese coast at will. With the gradual loss of military hegemony, the world has suddenly become aware of the illusion created by the United States. I was shocked to realize that no one believed the Western media’s unfailing claims in the past.
Secondly, after realizing the decline of the US military, support from various countries has dropped significantly. A few years ago, the United States had a unanimous response internationally. Countries all over the world were rushing to form an alliance with the United States. However, the foreign wars launched by the United States, regardless of whether they were justified or not, always received responses from a large number of countries. Even in Crimea in 2014 During the crisis , the then US President Obama cheered up, and countries in the Middle East jointly manipulated oil prices to severely damage Russia.
The reason why it was like this was because at that time, the United States was still an unchallengeable object in the eyes of the world. They all just wanted to stand with the "winner". However, they did not expect that in such a short period of time, a country with the ability to compete with American hegemony would appear. As a powerful country, countries around the world have room to adjust their policies toward the United States.
Nowadays, except for Japan and South Korea, which are two dedicated lackeys, it has been difficult for the United States to get real military support in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ASEAN countries have shown their refusal to choose sides and emphasized that they must seek common development with China. .
In the end, the United States wants to increase its presence in the Asia-Pacific through NATO, but at best it can only achieve the effect of "returning to the past." The United States has just wooed European countries at the NATO summit in an attempt to introduce NATO to the Asia-Pacific to support its actions in the Taiwan Strait. It seems that the United States' actions have achieved a certain degree of success, including some foreign media starting to trumpet the symbolic significance of NATO's eastward march. and issued a warning to China.
But in fact, forcing allies to choose sides can only win temporary "support" for the United States, but cannot change the basic situation it faces in the Taiwan Strait region. What's more, Europe is not stupid and does not regard the interests of the United States as its own. For example, French President Macron immediately clarified after the NATO summit that "NATO is not an alliance against China."
In fact, the United States is also aware of its current predicament, but no one wants to talk about it too much. However, there are always experts like Mastro who "ignorantly" point out this problem, leaving the United States in embarrassment, but It is also very simple to resolve this problem, that is, the United States should put down its obsession with besieging China and stop interfering in China's internal affairs.
But unfortunately, judging from the current performance of the United States, it is too difficult for it to do this, so all that is left for us is to be prepared for struggle.
