Russian troops withdraw from Snake Island, is the US "Harpoon" missile showing off its power?
As the Russian troops withdraw from Snake Island, is the US "Harpoon" missile showing off its power?
Ukraine Military: Russian troops launched another attack after withdrawing from Snake Island
[ Global Times comprehensive report] The website of the U.S. Naval Institute stated on July 2 that just one day after Russia announced its withdrawal from Snake Island in southern Ukraine, The Pentagon publicly announced that the Ukrainian army used the "Harpoon" anti-ship missile provided by the United States to sink a Russian supply ship heading to Snake Island. "This became a key enabler for the Ukrainian army to retake Snake Island."
Russia said that the Russian troops had completed the designated task of withdrawing from Snake Island. Ukraine said that the Ukrainian armed forces have not yet landed on the island. Picture source Visual China
According to official news from the Russian Ministry of Defense , Russia’s announcement on June 30 to withdraw troops from Snake Island was a " "A gesture of goodwill", Russia will use this to express to the international community that Russia will not hinder the efforts of the United Nations to form a humanitarian corridor to transport agricultural products from Ukrainian territory. But the U.S. Naval Institute website quoted a senior Pentagon official as saying that "Russia's claims are wrong."
"The fact is, the way we look at this development is that Ukraine has been very successful in putting tremendous pressure on Russia, including using their recently acquired Harpoon missiles to attack Russian supply ships. When you realize that Snake Island "When it is so barren and desolate, you can understand the importance of cutting off its supplies." The official emphasized, "The Ukrainian army makes it difficult for the Russian army to maintain operations there, and the latter is very vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks." The Ukrainian army also said, After the Ukrainian army launched large-scale air strikes and artillery attacks on the Russian defenders stationed on Snake Island, the Russian army suffered serious casualties and losses and was forced to evacuate Snake Island, which was flat, lacked cover, and was easy to attack and difficult to defend.
India's "Eurasia Times" noted on the 3rd that the Ukrainian Navy had previously claimed to use two "Harpoon" missiles to "cause a devastating blow" to the Russian rescue tugboat that was transporting personnel and weapons to Snake Island. However, the report did not clarify whether the sinking of the Russian supply ship by the Harpoon missile mentioned by Pentagon officials was related to this.
It is worth noting that although the Russian army evacuated Snake Island, the fighting around the island did not stop. Ukraine’s national news agency said on July 2 that the Ukrainian armed forces were completing a military operation to clear Russian weapons and equipment on Snake Island. Details "The Ukrainian army said it is taking military action to clear the weapons and equipment of the Russian army on Snake Island"
The Ukrainian army said that the Russian army attacked the Snake Island in the Black Sea
In addition, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army Zaluzhny also revealed that the Russian army had attacked Snake Island in the Black Sea in July. On the 1st, two Su-30 fighter jets were dispatched and dropped white phosphorus bombs on Shedao. The video he provided showed that a fighter plane flew over Snake Island and dropped at least two bombs. The bombs exploded and left light white streaks of smoke in the sky. "This is a typical feature of white phosphorus bomb explosions." "Kiev Independent" reporter Ponomarenko said that the international convention prohibits the use of white phosphorus bombs against civilians, but there are currently no residents on Snake Island. "The Russian army may be destroying the weapons left on the island." (Ma Jun)
Related reports
The Russian army evacuated Snake Island, but the war may be more intense! (Xinmin Weekly)
Judging from the Russian army’s withdrawal from Snake Island, Odessa may have smelled the smoke of gunpowder.
Text | Haike
Russian troops withdrew from Snake Island.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said this was a goodwill move.
But Ukraine said that this was because Russia could not hold on on Snake Island and had to evacuate.
Overview of Snake Island: Russian Satellite News Agency
In Uncle Hai’s view, the statements of both Russia and Ukraine are naturally reasonable from their respective standpoints. But the crux of the question is - what will be the next step in the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Will the situation turn around and peace return because of Russia's "act of goodwill"?
At present, the situation is not optimistic. The Russian army evacuated Snake Island on the Black Sea , but it is very likely that its eyes will be set on Odessa. This place is the only seaport currently controlled by the Zelensky authorities.
1
At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's "special military operations" had two major hot spots -
One was that the Russian airborne troops entered the vicinity of Kiev from the air and once entered Anton where the world's largest aircraft An-225 was parked. Nov Airport;
Second, the Russian army made a quick decision and occupied Snake Island. Ukraine flaunts the so-called "13 Warriors of Snake Island", saying that they all sacrificed their lives for the country in order to defend the island. However, the Russian side shot a video in Crimea . A group of Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered to the Russian army in the Battle of Snake Island walked out of the bus, looking dejected.
Schematic diagram of the location of Snake Island
The reason why the Russian army wanted to occupy Snake Island at that time, in Uncle Hai's view, was mainly because of its strategic location. It controls the important channel from the Black Sea to the Bosporus. If weapons of considerable quality and quantity are deployed on Snake Island, the port of Odessa can be completely sealed.
Judging from the momentum of Russia's "Special Military Operation" from the beginning, it seems that the Russian army will be penetrated into big cities such as Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov, and the Kiev authorities will quickly sign an alliance under the city. But the progress of the Russian army did not seem to be smooth thereafter. This also led to the withdrawal of troops from Kiev to eastern Ukraine. After shrinking, they started to advance on the ground using tanks and , which the Russian army is good at.
A shelled house in Severodonetsk. Russia said that three concrete plants will be opened in the "Donetsk People's Republic" to restore social infrastructure. Picture: Russian Satellite News Agency
As for Snake Island, has been at the forefront of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Since the Russian army occupied Snake Island, it has been firmly in control of it. There have been rumors that Ukraine will regain Snake Island several times, and there have been occasional wars, but the Ukrainian army has indeed not captured the island. However, the Russian Satellite News Agency once reported that Zelensky hopes that the Ukrainian army will seize Snake Island as soon as possible, but the Ukrainian General Staff has not yet made up its mind to launch a counterattack on Snake Island.
In such a situation, why did Russia suddenly withdraw from Snake Island?
Some Western media analysts said that the reason why the Russian army retreated was related to the fact that Ukraine received Western military aid. Ukraine's latest configuration of missile , rocket and other shore-based weapons can already cover Snake Island. Even if the Ukrainian army has no plans to storm Snake Island for the time being, the Russian army will have to withdraw.
Russian "Moscow" guided missile cruiser Picture: Reuters information
Some Western media also mentioned the Russian guided missile cruiser "Moscow". The ship sank to the bottom of the Black Sea in April this year. Russia claimed that the sinking of the Moskva was due to the explosion of ammunition on the ship, which caused the ship to lose its stability while being towed back to port and sank to the bottom of the sea.
The Ukrainian side stated that the "Moscow" was hit by a Ukrainian "Neptune" missile when it was returning from a combat mission against Ukraine, causing the hull to explode and eventually sink to the bottom of the sea.
Now that the Russian army has withdrawn from Snake Island, Western media and Ukraine have made a big fuss, saying that the Russian army had to abandon Snake Island for fear of encountering a similar attack as the "Moscow".
2
In Uncle Hai’s opinion, after receiving weapons assisted by NATO , the quality of heavy weapons of the Ukrainian army has been improved. Odessa state shore-based weapons may actually be able to hit Snake Island. The Russian army may have really considered that they might be attacked if they stayed on Snake Island, so they might as well withdraw first. But this does not mean that the Russian army will retreat as a whole. Just as the Russian army withdrew from Kiev to eastern Ukraine, it expanded in eastern Ukraine and captured most of the territory in Severonetsk and other places. Now that the Russian army has withdrawn from Snake Island, it may mean that it will gather westward from Zaporozhye , Kherson and other places to attack Odessa from the land.
Map of the areas controlled by the Russian army and the two "People's Republics" in Ukraine in early June: Information
In fact, as early as early June, the Russian army and the two "People's Republic" armed forces in Ukraine had already opened up Zaporozhye and Melli. Land routes to Topol, Kherson, Crimea. It has become possible to gather troops from Kherson and march towards Nikolayev and Odessa.
At that time, the Russian army was still fighting fiercely with the Ukrainian army in Severodonetsk, which meant that they had no time to spare to assemble in Kherson.
Now, the Russian army has captured Severodonetsk. At this time, will they go south to capture Odessa?
From the perspective of military observers, when the Russian army was not ready to attack Odessa immediately, Snake Island was used to contain the firepower of the Ukrainian army and prevent the Ukrainian army in Odessa from going north to support the war in Kiev or even Severonetsk. By the time the war in Severodonetsk ended and the Russian army moved south to Odessa, the strategic fulcrum role of Snake Island had ceased. At this time, the Russian General Staff Department will analyze -
What role can Snake Island play in the battle to capture Odessa?
If it works, how to use it. If it doesn't work, it's better to withdraw troops from Snake Island and gather superior forces to capture Odessa in one fell swoop. At that time, Snake Island will still be in the possession of the Russian army.
3
After the NATO Madrid Summit, especially after Indonesian President Jokowi met with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and Russian President Putin in Kiev and Moscow, Russia claimed that the withdrawal of troops was a release of goodwill, which seemed okay. inappropriate.
Indonesian President Joko met with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Kiev on June 29, local time. Picture: Ukrainian Presidential Palace website
On June 30, local time, Joko met with Putin in Moscow.
Uncle Hai noticed that Zoko When Coe met Putin, he said he brought a letter from Zelensky. Although some Russian media later claimed that Jokowi did not bring Zelensky’s paper letter, in any case, the presidents of Ukraine and Russia met Jokowi a day later, and Ukraine, Russia, and Indonesia all agreed on this The process shows that Joko is indeed able to speak.
Putin also promised Jokowi that he would give Ukraine the opportunity to export grain. Of course, fertilizer cooperation, energy cooperation, etc. between Russia and Indonesia are another matter. Judging from Jokowi's mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine, Uncle Hai thinks he has been successful. But if Russia and Ukraine do not meet each other halfway and seize the opportunity for peace, the next step, the battle of Odessa, may only be more intense than the battle of Severodonetsk. In mid-May, Uncle Hai wrote an article "Will the Russian Army Capture Odessa?" Will Ukraine become a " landlocked country "? ", it was predicted at that time that if the West continued to press forward, Russia would most likely take action to make Zelensky's Ukraine a landlocked country.
Judging from the Russian army’s withdrawal from Snake Island, Odessa may have smelled the smoke of gunfire.
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