The South China Sea, with a total area of ​​about 3.5 million square kilometers, is one of the busiest sea areas in the world. About 50% of the world’s maritime transportation passes through the South China Sea. It is also a strategic center for China’s maritime lifeline. In the

The South China Sea, with a total area of ​​about 3.5 million square kilometers, is one of the busiest sea areas in the world. About 50% of the world's maritime transportation passes through the South China Sea. It is also a strategic town through which China's maritime lifeline passes. The South China Sea has become more It is the area with the most frequent frictions between China and the United States.

Different from the petty disputes in the Taiwan Strait, China and the United States have had relatively serious frictions in the South China Sea twice in 2016 and 2018. The former is well-known, that is, the friction that occurred over the South China Sea arbitration case six years ago, and the latter is rarely known. As everyone knows, this is related to the 2018 South China Sea Military Parade.

2018 was an important year for China’s foreign investment and the development of RMB internationalization. Especially that year, the RMB financial market was initially linked to Middle East oil. A batch of hundreds of thousands of tons of oil shipped from the Middle East was preparing to pass through the Indian Ocean. - Strait of Malacca -South China Sea bound for Shanghai.

The then Trump administration also responded, pulling in Singapore , which had long been duplicitous, and prepared to intercept the oil tanker in the Strait of Malacca.

That year, the three major fleets of the South China Sea, North Sea , and East China Sea deployed all their main forces. They went out to the Indian Ocean to pick up oil tankers and held a demonstration ship review in the South China Sea. This also became the basis for the trade war that year. Direct trigger. A few years later, the South China Sea has now become the area with the most concentrated conflicts between China and the United States, and even the Shura field where the two countries will decide.

It is not only the significance of maritime routes. Another more important value of the South China Sea is that whoever controls the South China Sea controls half of Southeast Asia, and Southeast Asia will be the global economic development area in the next twenty years.

Nowadays, China has taken the initiative to carry out economic reforms to eliminate backward production capacity in order to calm the tense international situation. Southeast Asia is the only region that has the conditions to undertake China's manufacturing production capacity. Latin America and Africa, which are even more backward than them, do not even have the ability to undertake manufacturing. .

It is foreseeable that the development speed of China, the United States and major economies will slow down in the next twenty years. However, at the same time, due to the entry of a large amount of capital and industrial chains in Southeast Asia, the economic development of Southeast Asian countries There will be a peak.

Today's Southeast Asian countries include Indochina and Malay Islands countries. They are politically greatly influenced by China and the United States, and economically they are completely dependent on China. They can be called the "extension" of China's economic system. In part, or according to Western economists, is called "China's economic sewer".

However, they generally maintain a relatively neutral political attitude. It is actually the position of whether China and the United States win or they will mess with whoever wins. Therefore, the United States continues to exert influence in Southeast Asia and has never recognized China's claims to the South China Sea. They will push Southeast Asia regarded as an important basis for economic decoupling from China.

In the past ten years, China has regarded military construction in the South China Sea as an important long-term strategy. Objectively, the actions of both parties have contributed to today's militarization of the South China Sea. has also made this area the most likely place for a direct war between China and the United States. powder keg.

Now China's military layout in the South China Sea has begun to take shape. The outer part is composed of three base groups, showing a three-level ladder, or a "three-layer defense line."

The first outermost layer is the Nansha Islands base group, which is distributed with three large air force bases and a series of other military infrastructure. Its construction highlights China's intention to use this place as a military barrier in terms of national defense strategy.

The second layer includes two parts, the Xisha base group in the west and the isolated Huangyan Island base in the east.

The third layer is the local base group on the Hainan-Guangxi front line.

The imaginary enemy that this kind of military deployment is actually aimed at is the mobile fleet and strategic aviation of the U.S. Navy in the Western Pacific. These three lines of defense are not in the general sense a plan to delay the military attack of the imaginary enemy through multi-level military deployment.

Instead, each layer of defense assumes different responsibilities, defends each other, and ensures that the activity area of ​​the US fleet is compressed to the peripheral waters south of the Nansha Islands . ensures that China's military power controls the northern two-thirds of the South China Sea, and It poses a threat to surrounding US military bases.

To understand China's military deployment in the South China Sea, we must first understand the military projection capabilities of the US military around the South China Sea, that is, the current threat status faced by China's military barriers in the South China Sea.

The US military has sufficient military facilities around the South China Sea, including the Subic Bay Naval Base and Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines, and the Surabaya and Jakarta Port Naval Bases in Indonesia.

is located in four bases including Bangkok Port in Thailand, as well as Changi Marine and Air Force Bases in Singapore. has a total of 9 military ports and 4 airports.

The military facilities of the US military reflect several major characteristics. First, the land-based aviation power is slightly insufficient. The US Air Force bases around the South China Sea are far away from the war zone.

Therefore, the tactical aircraft stationed there need the auxiliary support of a large number of tankers to barely carry out military operations in the central waters of the South China Sea. However, the number of airports is limited, Therefore, the threat posed by these bases to the South China Sea is actually mainly due to their deployment. strategic bomber , the number of tactical aircraft that can support operations in the South China Sea is limited.

And the naval infrastructure is dense, so the U.S. Navy is actually capable of organizing large-scale military operations in the South China Sea. Considering that the scale of the U.S. naval aviation is still relatively large, therefore in the possible conflict in the South China Sea, the U.S. military The aviation force will consist of naval aviation, air force strategic aviation and a small number of tactical aviation.

Therefore, China’s first line of defense in the South China Sea is also targeted. It mainly deploys air defense forces. There are three large air force bases on Fiery Cross Island , Mischief Island , and Subi Island , including 3,000 meters A large runway that is 60 meters long and 60 meters wide.

However, the take-off distance of the J-11 and J-16 deployed at these bases when performing air defense operations does not exceed 500 meters. As for making the runway so long and wide, the main purpose of is to improve the anti-strike capability. After all, as long as the runway is long enough, it can still maintain normal operations even if a few holes are blown out.

It should be noted that the Nansha base group generally emphasizes air defense operations. Referring to the similarly sized US military Andersen Air Force Base on Guam, the latter is about twice the size of a single air force base in the Nansha base group.

can operate more than 150 strategic bombers, and the three air force bases in the Nansha base group can operate up to more than 300 fighter jets. is the strength of the three aviation divisions of the People's Liberation Army.

According to the calculation of most fighter jets in a 12-hour cycle, 4 hours in the air and 8 hours in ground preparation, the number of fighters that can take off for combat at any time is about the level of one aviation division and 100 fighter planes. In other words, this is also The force that the four large attack waves of the US aircraft carrier can deliver.

As far as the Nansha base group is concerned, if the number of aircraft carriers invested by the US military does not exceed 4, the threat it can pose to maritime navigation will be relatively limited.

If there are only two aircraft carriers, I am afraid that there is no need to use the counterattack force of the second and third layers of defense. It is just the navy and air force units stationed locally in the Nansha base group that can easily launch a counterattack.

Aircraft carrier is of course an important combat force in naval battles, but it may not be realistic to challenge a solid island airport without the cooperation and support of other units.

What deserves more attention is actually the strategic bombers deployed by the US Air Force in the surrounding areas. For example, the B-1B currently in service in the US military can carry 12 AGM-154 cruise missiles each time it takes off. they can intercept the PLA air defense fighters. Launch missile out of range and return.

If the US military can successfully put into service two squadrons (24 aircraft) of B-21 bombers before 2027, then the threat to the Nansha base group will be even greater by then. But for now, it is unrealistic for the two US military aircraft carriers to challenge the military barriers in the South China Sea because they simply do not have sufficient strike capabilities.

Because the U.S. military’s offensive fleet faces not just the first line of defense, but the highly complete PLA defense system, the Nansha base group is just the most advanced defensive barrier. This is the scale of hundreds of fighter jets, these The responsibility of combat forces is to maintain the theater in peripheral areas far away from mainland China.

The second and third lines of defense are the real counterattack force of the People's Liberation Army, including more than 100 strategic bombers, surface ships of the entire South China Sea Fleet, and the People's Liberation Army's strategic strike force, etc.

This is very reminiscent of the historical Battle of Midway. At that time, the Japanese fleet targeted Midway , but ignored the mobile counterattack power of the US military in addition to fixed military facilities. As a result, the Japanese aircraft carrier formation was defeated by the US military. The aviation force served a pot.

A similar situation is what the U.S. military needs to be wary of in the future, and the U.S. military’s current military situation is also prone to facing such problems.

Because the development of the US Navy is very unique, almost all anti-ship combat missions in the entire fleet are undertaken by carrier-based aircraft , and most of the ground strike missions are also completed by carrier-based aircraft. Other warships in the formation It is mainly responsible for air defense and underwater warning tasks.

This system is actually a legacy of the Cold War, because during the Cold War the Soviet Union's anti-ship combat capabilities were mainly strategic bombers and supersonic anti-ship missiles launched from warships.

This is completely different from the current People's Liberation Army. Although it seems that the Chinese Navy is learning from the US Navy, if we really want to study the concept of military development, the Chinese Navy is actually more similar to the historical hybrid of the Soviet Red Navy and the British. On the one hand, China The combat responsibilities of each ship in the naval aircraft carrier formation are more similar to those of the Soviet Red Navy.

Although we are also building large fleet aircraft carriers, the carrier-based aircraft formation not only undertakes strike missions, but also provides vital long-distance strike assistance for the entire formation. The large surface ships of the formation are also responsible for the counterattack during the decisive battle of the fleet. Ship strike mission.

For example, why does the People's Liberation Army equip 055 with 1,000-kilometer-level hypersonic anti-ship missiles? Rather than moving the sea-based version of Dongfeng-26? Because the observation and targeting distance that the aircraft carrier formation itself can provide is 1,000 kilometers.

The large surface ships of the US Navy do not actually undertake this kind of task. This is why it is difficult for the US Navy to pose a threat to the now complete military barriers in the South China Sea. In the past few decades, they have never faced anything truly similar. Technical level opponents, therefore actually puts more emphasis on "interference operations" in development.

Once the missiles in the vertical launch system of the destroyer are fired, they will return to the port for resupply and reloading. After the carrier-based aircraft drops the bomb, it only needs to return to the aircraft carrier for a short rest before it can perform its mission again.

Therefore, handing over the main sea and land strike missions to carrier-based aircraft can improve the sustained combat capability of the fleet. But conversely, once the carrier-based aircraft do not have an advantage in combat, the combat capability of the entire fleet will be reduced. Because the singleness of attack methods is rapidly reduced.

In this regard, the U.S. Navy is a typical "intervention fleet". For example, in theory, the Ford-class 's long-term aviation operation capability is significantly stronger than that of the Type 003 aircraft carrier. If the imaginary enemy is Iran's technology Level opponents, Ford-class performance will definitely be better than 003.

Because the mission cycle is also 144 hours, the dispatch rate of Ford-class carrier-based aircraft will be 30% higher, and the F-35 has a strong under-wing mounting capability.

Of course this is theory. In fact, the Ford class is currently in a state of being unable to form combat effectiveness. Because the reliability of the electromagnetic ejection and blocking systems is so low that it even reaches less than 10% of the theoretical dispatch rate.

On the other hand, the Chinese Navy is the same as the historical British Navy . has a considerable number of sub-ships. These sub-ships can spread out and establish a large-scale sea and air surveillance zone. The area of ​​​​the South China Sea itself It's not particularly big.

Faced with the People's Liberation Army's complete battlefield surveillance system, the activities of the US military fleet and aircraft fleet in the South China Sea are tantamount to streaking. is completely under our noses, so the rest is to fight for hard power.

The main contradiction facing the U.S. Navy now is: The technical level of the Chinese Navy is very strong, far surpassing their previous opponent, the Soviet Red Navy, and the intervention fleet developed against the weaker Soviet Red Navy may not be able to It is not enough to deal with the current Chinese navy. In fact, the naval combat capability of the US fleet is questionable.

Just dealing with the hundreds of air defense fighters of the Nansha base group and the complete local air defense system will consume most of the aviation combat power.

In addition, we must also beware of the People's Liberation Army's three types of counterattack forces, namely ballistic missiles , strategic bombers, and mobile fleets. The entire combat system does not have a good way to deal with these counterattacks.

This is a situation that has never happened in the past few decades. The Soviet shipbuilding industry is far from comparable to China. They did not come up with a real fleet aircraft carrier until they disintegrated. What about China?

Now the Chinese Navy's technical level has surpassed that of the US Navy in many fields, and the Chinese Navy is a true decisive battle fleet. If the US Navy wants to give up its geographical location and come to the decisive battle in the South China Sea, then I am afraid it will need to be reborn in many aspects.