The US "National Interest" website published an article on June 30: "Can China win and unify Taiwan without a fight?" ”, the author is Jahara Maticek Ben Loson, an American expert on “Chinese political and security affairs” who serves as the China Advisor to the U.S. Air Force General’s Office. John Amber, editorial director of the Modern Warfare Institute at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and co-director of the Urban Warfare Project, recently participated in a Homeland Defense Institute research mission on ukraine.
The thinking of the United States is indeed strange
This American article believes: "When the United States considers how to defend Taiwan Province from conventional forms of military reunification, it must also attach great importance to attacks along non-traditional routes." "The People's Liberation Army dispatches paratroopers and helicopter army aviation units, China has every reason to hope to deploy 50,000 troops to the island in the first wave and more than 100,000 troops in the first 24 hours. "This is a common concept: China vs. Taiwan. The province launched a large-scale offensive. But what if China attacks without using conventional forces? What if the People's Liberation Army uses well-trained covert troops to win without a fight? This situation presents worrisome challenges."
Paratroopers + Army Aviation are the traditional approach.
"U.S. intelligence officials have warned that China hopes to peacefully reunify Taiwan," former U.S. defense official Elbridge Colby said. To China said: “In terms of defending Taiwan, the goal of the United States is not to comprehensively defeat China, but to defeat the attack. The United States, Taiwan, and any other partners willing to join the fight need to focus on striking the Chinese navy’s fleet and air force aircraft. Think of mines, anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles launched from a variety of platforms on land, sea and air. "
"China is likely learning its lessons since Russia's attack on Ukraine" "With the world's reliance on power grids, GPS and a range of electromagnetic systems, the Chinese military will begin large-scale electromagnetic attacks on critical infrastructure in Taiwan Province. Interfere with actions to degrade various services (e.g. internet, mobile, electricity, etc.). At the same time, China will selectively restrict data flows on its Pacific submarine cable network and the 21 submarine cables connecting Taiwan Province. "Because Taiwan is isolated, many electromagnetic services on the island are disabled, which will allow the People's Liberation Army to exploit commercial Planes and civilian ships: Every ship and every plane was filled with the 'Secret Forces of the People's Liberation Army: Little Red Army' wearing Taiwan Army uniforms, quietly landing and docking at 22 airports and 13 seaports in Taiwan Province. "
Civilian Ship Transport "Little Red Army"?
"Subsequently, the 'Little Red Army' quickly occupied important Taiwan Provincial Government facilities, radio and television stations; aviation and seaports; material warehouses; arsenals and airports. The United States believes: "Strategically speaking, Taiwan Province lacks the geographical depth of Ukraine." There is almost no room for retreat in Taiwan Province, and it is impossible to carry out guerrilla warfare . "A 2021 report titled "Poison Frog Strategy" by the Center for a New American Security further recommends pre-coordination of "deterrence measures" between the Taiwan authorities and so-called "partners." But two U.S. experts also believe: "Ultimately , China may unify Taiwan through force and achieve victory without a fight."
Little Green Man tactics will not be easily replicated.
Putting aside the "Little Red Army" assault on Taiwan Province, American experts still look at the future war across the Taiwan Strait very objectively. It can be said that China has completed its great cause of reunification before the U.S. military has time to dispatch! This is what the U.S. authorities and the U.S. military are most "worried about".
Generally speaking, the People's Liberation Army's reunification of Taiwan means: " missiles plow the ground on the first day, and land on the ground the next day." Edit, the whole island has a holiday on the third day! ", "2 hours to resolve the battle, 8 hours to occupy the place, 12 hours to complete the press conference, 16 hours to get comfort supplies in place, 48 hours to complete the distribution of new ID cards ! "The most important thing about the People's Liberation Army's war against Taiwan is the first 24 hours. Within 24 hours, joint strikes destroyed about 3,000-5,000 people including air force bases, command centers, radar facilities, ammunition depots, missile units along the coast of Taiwan Province. A category-1 target that completely suppresses the Taiwan military’s counterattack capabilities.Taiwan's F-16 fighter jet cannot take off. Once you take off, there is nowhere to land. Because the People's Liberation Army will destroy all military airports and runways in Taiwan Province as soon as possible. China's best rocket has a range that exceeds the width of the strait, and the rockets cover the beachhead. The People's Liberation Army has special elimination equipment for to resist horses, , and mines, not to mention air superiority and electromagnetic interference.
missile? Enough!
The People's Liberation Army's first wave of missiles washes the ground. The Taiwan military has an air blockade. There is no power, no network, no signal. They have lost command and superiors and friendly forces have lost contact. The Taiwan military has no hope of winning. The only option for the Taiwan military is to surrender. Who will "uprising" faster? How long it will take for the People's Liberation Army to attack Taiwan depends on two aspects. First, how long the People's Liberation Army can annihilate the main force of the Taiwan Army, and second, how long the People's Liberation Army can block reinforcements from the United States, Japan and other countries on the periphery. At present, the People's Liberation Army has no problem with the first one. The second one requires China to develop 003, 004, or even 005 and 006 aircraft carriers as soon as possible to intercept and attack the US-Japan combined fleet in the Western Pacific!
Need to intercept the US-Japan strike group
The Americans' little calculation is to deceive China into being like Russia, who was provoked to the point of being intolerable and went to war without being prepared. Then the Americans reap the benefits and realize their best interests in containing China and decoupling. The United States should not dare to go to war directly with China, a big country like China, otherwise the consequence will be that the United States will directly fail in the war! Now the United States can only create fire everywhere in order to sell weapons. The United States has sent a surface fleet. In front of China's Dongfeng-21D and Dongfeng-26 ballistic missiles, the U.S. aircraft carrier is a living target. If the United States dares to send its air force, it must prepare the Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile so that US military fighters have no place to land. Today, the People's Liberation Army's total firepower in the Taiwan Strait has already overwhelmed the U.S. military. The U.S. military coming here to fight faces unbearable risks: "If the U.S. military dares to come, it will have to be put in a coffin and sent back, or it will sink into the Western Pacific or the Taiwan Strait ."
