The conflict between Russia and Ukraine lasted for more than four months. The different situations of the parties involved both inside and outside the battlefield can basically be described in three sentences. Russia, on the other hand, is “playing steadily and step by step.” Regarding and Ukraine , "we have lost strength and lost ground, and we are struggling to support it." Countries in the United States and Europe discussed an armistice behind closed doors.
Let’s first look at Russia’s “steady and steady approach”. In late March, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the special military operation against Ukraine had entered the second phase. In the first stage of this conflict, the Russian army advanced vigorously but was defeated. What people saw more was the embarrassment of the attacking side. This is probably a rare sight in the history of war. Starting from the second stage, the Russian army's battlefield performance can be said to be flexible. In the less important directions of Kiev and Chernihiv, the Russian army withdrew its troops. In the Donbass area, the Russian army concentrated its troops and firepower to the maximum extent. They are using artillery fire to "liberate" the so-called Donbas region. Its tactics can be said to be a replica of Zeng Guofan's "strengthening the stronghold and fighting stupid wars". At this time, the Russian army moved forward step by step, occupying one town today and two villages tomorrow.
This is a real control. Every time the front moves forward, the various civil administrations behind it will follow suit. Whenever the Russian army occupied a place, they began to issue Russian resident identity cards and pensions in rubles and . If it is a rural area, as long as the war is not serious, troops will be sent to help mine clearing . Once the landmines are cleared, agricultural production begins to resume. In this way, not only the area of the Russian-controlled area is growing, but the population is also growing. Now even militias are being formed one after another. Therefore, although the Russian army's advance is protracted, it is real.
Let’s take a look at Ukraine’s “loss of troops and ground, struggling to support itself.” On June 2, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy gave a speech to the people of Luxembourg . Zelensky revealed in this speech that the length of the front line in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exceeded 1,000 kilometers. Currently, Russian troops have captured 3,620 residential areas in Ukraine. Since the war began, the Ukrainian army has lost 30,000 soldiers.
Zelensky also talked about a cruel reality in his speech. Since the 2014 Crimean crisis, the Russian army has controlled one-fifth of Ukraine's territory. These occupied territories include the Crimean Peninsula, which covers an area of 43,000 square kilometers, making it larger than the Netherlands. Zelensky emphasized that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this number has increased to 125,000 square kilometers. This is a quite objective number, because its area exceeds the sum of the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg. To make matters worse, the Ukrainian army is under increasing military pressure from Russia. Without constant "blood transfusion" from the outside, Ukraine may not be able to survive for a day.
For Ukraine, which is struggling to support itself, the biggest variable is the Western allies behind it. Because the recent performance of the United States and European countries really cannot reassure Kyiv. There are signs that the United States and European countries are secretly discussing how to end this conflict behind Kiev's back. In the first stage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the competition between the two sides at the negotiating table was accompanied by fighting on the battlefield. In particular, the negotiations in Istanbul on March 29 were almost on the verge of reaching a final goal. However, once the Buqia incident broke out, previous peace efforts were in vain. The reason is that the forces behind Ukraine still don't want the war to end. Two months later, the situation has undergone some new changes. Because the real creators of the conflict discovered that this military conflict did not develop in the direction they expected, they began to be "peace-loving" again.
According to the US CNN report, US and European officials have met frequently recently to discuss the possibility of ending the war through negotiations. When they discussed a potential ceasefire framework agreement, Ukrainian officials were not invited to participate. CNN mentioned that related issues include Italy’s so-called 4-point framework agreement .Last month, Italy proposed a so-called four-point peace framework agreement to the United Nations. Which four? Article 1: Ceasefire on the spot. Article 2: Ukraine will not join , NATO and remain neutral. Article 3: Russia and Ukraine will discuss territorial issues separately after the war. Article 4: The United States and Europe will lift various sanctions in stages depending on Russia’s troop withdrawal. Among these four articles, except for the last one, the rest are almost replicas of the original Istanbul Agreement. However, that agreement was artificially interrupted at the last moment.
Many people couldn't help but smile "knowingly" when they heard the last item of Italy's proposal. On the surface, the West wants to take advantage of Russia. Only by withdrawing its troops from Ukraine will the West lift corresponding sanctions. The question is, who is more anxious about lifting sanctions against Russia? Europe or Russia? On May 30, the EU internally passed the latest round of sanctions against Russia. Its main content is to ban oil but not natural gas , and ban offshore oil but not control oil.
The reason for the coyness is that European countries are overwhelmed by high oil prices. Sure enough, even though the word of sanctions has not yet faded, oil prices continue to rise. On May 31, London Brent crude oil futures soared to $126 a barrel. For Russia, the continued rise in oil prices is like "a cannon fires a thousand taels of gold." Some time ago, Bloomberg of the United States made an estimate. This year, Russia's total revenue from exporting oil and gas resources will reach $285 billion. This figure represents a year-on-year increase of 20%. While struggling with the heavy burden, the more you fight, the richer you get. The direct question it brings is, who will be the first to fail in this battle?
