Snake Island is a small island located in the northwest of the Black Sea. It is legally under the jurisdiction of the Odessa Oblast of Ukraine. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, Russia quickly seized this island. However, the Ukrainian army soon launched a counterattack. For more than four months, the Russian-Ukrainian army launched a fierce battle around Snake Island. However, recently Russia suddenly announced its withdrawal.
According to the Russian TASS news agency, Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense, recently stated that Russia has withdrawn its troops from Snake Island. According to Konashenkov, Russia’s withdrawal was out of goodwill and was intended to show that Russia would not obstruct Ukraine’s agricultural export channels.
Snake Island is not large, only about 0.17 square kilometers, but it is the largest island in the northwest Black Sea, and it is not far from Odessa, , the largest port in Ukraine. It controls Ukraine's sea access in the northwest Black Sea. At the beginning of the war, Russia's combat goal was to use blitzkrieg to force Ukraine to surrender, so it quickly seized Snake Island, thus blocking Ukraine's Odessa and other ports, putting huge pressure on Ukraine.
Then why does Russia take the initiative to withdraw from Snake Island? First of all, Russia has a clear reason for withdrawing its troops, and that is to cooperate with the actions of the United Nations. Recently, food shortage crises have broken out in many parts of the world. Ukraine, which is in a state of war, is one of the most important food exporters in the world, but has a backlog of more than 20 million tons of food that cannot be exported.
In April this year, United Nations Secretary-General Guterres visited Kiev and Moscow in succession, and discussed with Putin a preliminary plan led by the United Nations to ensure that Ukrainian food goes to sea. At that time, Russia stated that as long as Ukraine dismantled the mines deployed outside the port of Odessa, Russia would not block its food exports.
Judging from the current situation, the work of the United Nations should have achieved certain results, otherwise Russia would not have withdrawn from Snake Island to make way for Ukraine. Secondly, Russia’s openness to Ukraine also has military considerations. Compared with when the war first started, Russia's combat goals have changed now, and most of its energy and troops are placed in the Donbass region to consolidate its occupation of the region.
The strategic value of Snake Island lies in blocking Ukraine's sea access. Now that the combat objectives have changed, the strategic value of Snake Island has dropped significantly. Therefore, Russia simply followed the trend and withdrew its troops from Snake Island in the name of giving way to Ukraine. Firstly, it could express its sincerity in cooperating with the United Nations. Secondly, it could win international favor and make the rumors of the Western media self-defeating. It can be said that Kill two birds with one stone.
At the same time, Russia is not worried about Ukraine regaining control of Snake Island because the military strength of the two countries is too far apart. Even if Ukraine occupied Snake Island, it could not hold it. If the war situation changes in the future and Russia wants to blockade the Odessa port again, it will not be difficult to capture Snake Island again. Unless NATO directly participates in the war, Russia will always occupy the initiative on the entire battlefield.
In this case, the gain or loss of a small island is not a big problem for Russia. The question now is how long Ukraine can survive. At the recent NATO summit, Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered a speech via video, claiming that Ukraine needs US$5 billion in monthly assistance to continue to compete with Russia.
This is a typical lion's opening. Assuming that this war continues until the end of 2022, Ukraine will need approximately US$25 billion in aid, which is undoubtedly a heavy burden for Western countries. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, severe inflation occurred in the United States and most European countries. The economic situation was extremely bad. It is still unknown how much money can be spent to fill the hole in Ukraine.
In addition, European countries also need to store enough natural gas to survive the winter, which also requires large sums of money, so it is unlikely to meet Ukraine's requirements. It is difficult to say how this war will end, but one thing is certain. If Ukraine continues to rely on the West, it will eventually be pushed into a pit of fire. Because this war is being fought on Ukrainian soil, the longer the war drags on, the more serious Ukraine's losses will be. Reaching reconciliation with Russia as soon as possible is what Ukraine should do.
