Ukrainian forces are likely to engage in combat withdrawals, which may include withdrawals from Lysichansk and Luhansk oblasts in the near future, which may be aimed at forcing Russia's offensive to climax prematurely. Rodion Miroshnik, the Luhansk People's Republic's (LNR) ambassador to Russia, and Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian troops began a massive withdrawal of troops from Lysychansk to Siversk, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk on June 28. [1] While ISW was unable to independently confirm Miroshnik's claims of an ongoing withdrawal, Ukrainian forces may continue to retreat from the fighting that began in Severodonetsk to Siversk, Kramatorsk and Slovakia. Ukrainian strongholds around Lovyansk. Despite Russia's new strategy aimed at limiting Russian casualties, Ukraine's determined but limited defense of Severonetsk has come at a high cost to the Russians. Kiev can continue this approach until the Russian offensive reaches its climax or Ukrainian forces reach more defensible positions along a straight line dotted with fortified towns.
The pace and outcome of the next phase of the current campaign may depend in part on Russia's ability to wrest combat power back from the forces that participated in the Severodonetsk campaign. The remaining Russian forces remaining in Severodonetsk will need to cross the Siverski Donets River from Severodonetsk or its surrounding settlements into Lysichansk to further participate in the Russian offensive. This movement may take some time as the Russians destroyed three major bridges across the river near the city. Miroshnik claimed that Russian troops had crossed the Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna and were building bridgeheads for further attacks on Lysychansk from the north. [2] ISW was unable to independently verify Miroshnik’s claims. If they are true, and Russian forces threaten to advance from the north and southwest of Lysichansk to finish the cauldron, then Ukrainian forces may also abandon Lysichansk and retreat the battle to more defensive positions. Russian forces conducting ongoing offensive operations in Severodonetsk will also need some time to regain combat capability before they can participate in an offensive north or northeast of Rysychansk. A Pentagon official who spoke on condition of anonymity said Russian forces continued to suffer heavy losses in the battle for small swaths of territory, and Russian groups fighting in Severonetsk were likely to lose men and equipment. [3] However, the location and strength of the Russian troops occupying Severonetsk remain unclear. The apparent acceleration of Russian attacks from south of Lisichansk or across the Donetsk River in Siverski may indicate that the Russians have completed the redeployment of forces from Severo-Donetsk. ISW has not observed such indicators.
The Ukrainian Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reports that The Kremlinreplaced Western Military District (WMD) commander Alexander Zhuravlev with former 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) commander Andrei Sechevoy. [4] Weapons of Mass Destruction Chief of Staff Aleksey Zavizion breathed a sigh of relief, CIT added. ISW cannot independently verify these reports and will continue to monitor the situation for further confirmation.
The Russian military continues to seek additional reserves to supplement Ukrainian personnel losses, but it is unlikely that these reserves will initiate rotations or provide combat-ready manpower. Chechnya leader Ramzan Kadyrov (Ramzan Kadyrov) announced that he will form four new battalions with "significant numbers" on June 26. [5] Kadyrov also announced that Chechen troops had formed a Western Akhmat battalion "in the shortest possible time" and claimed that the troops would be deployed to a well-equipped base in Chechnya. Chechen forces may deploy newly formed battalions to the front lines without adequate training. Social media users also posted footage of the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) rounding up "volunteers" in the city of Donetsk as part of a June 28 recruitment drive.[6] The wives of soldiers of the Russian 5th Guards Independent Tank Brigade posted a video request for their husbands to be rotated back home immediately, noting that their husbands had left their permanent deployment base in January 2022 to conduct "exercises in Belarus ". [7] Video shows that the Russian military command has expressed its intention to rotate troops.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces continue to launch assault operations south and southwest of Lysichansk. Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) officials claimed Ukrainian troops had begun withdrawing from the city, but ISW was unable to confirm these claims.
Russian forces launched an unsuccessful offensive operation north of Slovyansk and carried out destructive attacks on settlements west of Izyum that could derail Ukraine's counteroffensive.
The Russian army failed to advance along the Kharkiv-Belgorod highway and continued to take measures to hinder Ukraine's advance inland.
On June 28, Russian forces continued to make limited territorial gains south of Bahmut. Russian forces continue to attack settlements along the E-40 highway from Slovyansk to Bakhmut, about 13 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut. [12] The Ukrainian General Staff also added that Russian troops are attacking in the direction of the Uglehirska power plant northwest of Svetlodarsk. [13] Ukrainian troops reportedly repelled a Russian attack in Pavlivka, east of the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border.
