Western countries led by the United States have always insisted that as long as they continue to impose economic sanctions on Russia and completely cut off their source of war funding, the Russian army will one day be completely defeated on the Ukrainian battlefield. On the surface, the performance of the Russian army in the first phase of the war seems to prove this.
At that time, a large number of elite Russian troops suffered large-scale defeats in the areas surrounding Kiev and Kharkov. Moreover, the losses of various elite weapons and equipment have been very heavy. However, since the battlefield was transferred to Donbass , it is no longer the Russian army that is constantly defeated on the battlefield, but the Ukrainian army. No matter how much military supplies the Western countries provide to Ukraine Aid has had little effect.
According to the latest reports from Russian media, the Russian and Ukrainian military have confirmed just a few days ago that the Russian army has completely captured Severodonetsk, a strategic town in Luhansk Oblast . Severodonetsk has been in operation since 2014. It has since been the de facto administrative center of the Luhansk Oblast in Ukraine. Previously, Ukraine deployed thousands of troops in this city, most of which were annihilated or captured by the Russian army. A small number of them swam across the Severodonetsk River and fled into the city of Lisichansk.
At present, the Russian army has also completed the encirclement of Lisichansk from the north, south and east. There are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian military has issued a withdrawal order. However, as the Russian army gradually tightens its pockets in this area, and the Russian army has used firepower to block the two roads retreating from Lisichansk to the rear, it is unclear whether the main force of tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops deployed there can withdraw. Out is still unknown.
What makes the Ukrainian army feel even more desperate is not just that, because Russia once again bombed the Ukrainian capital Kiev with cruise missiles. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Ignat recently stated that the Russian army dispatched two strategic bombers, HT195HT2 and HT160HT2, from Astrakhan's strategic bomber airport on June 27.
These strategic bombers launched the KH101 cruise missile over the Caspian Sea towards the Ukrainian capital Kiev. The maximum range of this cruise missile can reach 5,500 kilometers. Later, local officials in Kiev, Ukraine confirmed that in Kiev Oblast was bombed by 14 cruise missiles that day, causing heavy losses.
In fact, after the first phase of the war ended and the Russian army withdrew from the Kiev area in disarray, the frequency of their air raids on the Ukrainian capital was very low, with only one in April being publicly reported. However, at the beginning of this month, the Russian army also used the Tu95 strategic bomber to launch cruise missiles and air raids on Kiev. This undoubtedly proves that the frequency of the Russian army's strikes against the Ukrainian capital of 3 million people is gradually increasing. The Russian army has great potential in the future. It is possible to re-include Kiev as an offensive target.
The reason why I say this is because the current remnants of the Ukrainian army, the main force today are almost all crowded in several large cities in the Donbas region. After the two main Ukrainian army groups were annihilated in the Battle of Debaltsevo in 2015, it took them seven or eight years to finally train about 80,000 capable soldiers. This was also the reason why the Russian army lost ten percent in the first stage of the war. The main reason for the tragedy is that since the war broke out, the losses of these Ukrainian elites have been close to 60%-70%, and some troops have even been completely wiped out. For this reason, the Ukrainian government has even agreed to send cannon fodder-like homeland defense troops to the front lines of the war zone.
However, the Russian army is constantly strengthening mobilization, and one of the important measures is to recruit troops from the occupied areas. So far, the total force invested by the Russian army in the Ukrainian battlefield is about 105 battalion-level tactical groups. In the future, they are likely to increase the total size of battalion-level tactical groups to more than 150, and the number of elite troops will decrease as they fight. of Ukraine.
The defeat of the defenders will only get faster and faster. Once the resistance forces that appear on the Ukrainian battlefield are almost all cannon fodder troops like the Homeland Defense Brigade, Ukraine may have to face the reality of a crushing defeat. This is not at all A few cannons from the West can change things, so it is entirely reasonable that Kiev may be re-attacked or even captured by the Russian army.
