Since June 25, the Russian military has carried out multiple rounds of large-scale missile strikes across Ukraine. The Russian military strategic bomber rarely launched missiles from Belarus airspace to attack Ukrainian targets, causing the West to wonder: "Will Russia and Belarus jointly launch an attack on Ukraine?"
The British Broadcasting Corporation noted that as the Russian military moved in As the special military operation in Ukraine continues, although the Russian army has successively made important progress in the eastern Donbass battlefield, the Russian army's overall combat operations are slow and difficult. The possibility of the Russian army forming a second front from Belarus or even a Russian-Belarusian coalition always exists. . If Russia and Belarus launch an attack on northern Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army will deploy heavy troops in the Donbass area, the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield may change dramatically.
Belarus has always supported Russia’s special military operations against Ukraine, but has not sent troops to actually get involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is generally believed that Belarusian President Lukashenko has been under heavy internal and external pressure. From an external perspective, the United States and other countries regard Belarus and Russia as one unit of sanctions. Russian President Putin hopes that Belarus can send troops to join the Ukrainian ground battlefield and completely change the security environment faced by Russia and Belarus. From an internal perspective, after the riots in Belarus in August 2020, the opposition forces within Belarus have been ready to move and continue to make a fuss about the conflict in Ukraine, posing a serious challenge to Lukashenko's governance, which seriously constrains Lukashenko. The Kuwaiti government’s thoughts on sending troops abroad. Amid internal and external dilemmas, Lukashenko actively assisted the Russian army in launching attacks on Ukraine on the one hand, and actively acted as a mediator on the other. Regarding the issue of Ukrainian grain exports, which is of greatest concern to Europe, Belarus even proposed that due to the blockade of the Black Sea, the grain could be transported through the railways from Ukraine to Belarus and the Baltic countries to ports along the Baltic Sea for export. The imposition of sanctions by Lithuania on Kaliningrad has almost invalidated Belarus's alternative plan. In fact, it has greatly reduced Belarus's operating space to compete with the West on the Ukrainian issue. The outside world has expected that "Belarus may send troops to Ukraine" Significant improvement.
Recently, Belarus has made a series of sensitive military deployments. The Belarusian government announced the establishment of the Southern Combat Command and expanded the country's armed forces from the current 65,000 to 80,000. In early May, Belarus suddenly conducted a "combat readiness raid" on the entire military. In June, it began to hold military exercises to practice the transition from "peacetime to wartime phase." From June 22 to July 16, Belarus also held military mobilization exercises in the Gomel Oblast in the southeast, close to Ukraine. This series of actions are seen as Belarus preparing to intervene militarily in the Ukrainian battlefield.
Russian military Tu-22M3 bombers rarely launched missiles from Belarus to attack Ukraine
Ukraine is also very nervous about the developments in Belarus. The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency issued a report on the 26th claiming that the Russian intelligence agency "GRU" and the mercenaries controlled by Defense Minister Shoigu attempted to cause explosions and other attacks in the city of Mozyr, Gomel Oblast, southern Belarus. , and then framed it as being done by Ukraine, preparing to use this to drag Belarus into the war in Ukraine. Senior government officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, have continued to make statements, claiming that the probability of Belarus sending troops into Ukraine is currently very small, highlighting that the Ukrainian government continues to closely observe Belarus' possible actions.
The Atlantic Council, a US government think tank, believes that Lukashenko’s fate is closely related to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the results of his special military operation against Ukraine. As the United States and the West continue to provide weapons to the Ukrainian battlefield, if the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield changes significantly, the possibility of Belarusian military intervention in Ukraine will continue to increase.
Currently, Belarus plays an important role in supporting military operations against Russia. The Russian army has deployed the "Iskander" missile system , the "Pantsir-S" air defense system and the S-400 long-range air defense missile system in Belarus.Belarus also allows the Russian army to launch attacks on Ukraine from its own territory and serves as a logistics center for the Russian army. Especially when the Russian army has not achieved absolute air supremacy in Ukraine, the strategic bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces mainly operate in Belarusian airspace and launch long-range precision strike munitions into Ukraine. Belarus’ support for Russian military operations may not be limited to this. Western analysts believe that if the situation changes and requires Belarus to continue to increase its support, without sending troops, Belarus can also hold large-scale exercises near the Ukrainian border, or send special forces to harass the Ukrainian border defenders and create border tensions. The tense atmosphere attracted the attention of the Uzbek side and forced it to implement military reinforcements in the Donbas region, thereby achieving the purpose of containing Uzbek troops and reducing the pressure on the Russian military operations in Donbas.
If Belarus sends troops, the actions will be diverse. At that time, the channels used by the United States and the West to transport weapons and equipment to Ukraine through the border between Ukraine and Poland may be hit hard by the Belarusian army.
