Since Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine on February 24, Russia has intended to achieve control over at least parts of Ukraine in order to expand its strategic depth and prevent Russia from completely losing control of Ukraine. The conflict continues to this day, and Russia's current tactics have been "hardening the stronghold and fighting stupidly" for about three months, and the average daily advancement speed of the front is less than 100 meters.
In fact, on the whole, this situation is just a waste of money, there is no doubt about this. This kind of consumption will actually be more beneficial to Russia, because Russia's artillery firepower advantage is more obvious, and mobile combat will make Ukraine's small penetration team make a difference. The current situation is that the Russian army can fire more than 50,000 large-caliber artillery shells every day, exchanging 50-100 casualties for 200-1,000 Ukrainian casualties. This exchange ratio is naturally beneficial to the Russian army.
The dilemma Ukraine is facing now is relatively obvious. Ukraine can currently expand to 1 million, but the main force is still those brigades, especially the Donbass cluster. Except for the 29 brigades, the remaining newly formed troops generally lack sufficient training and sufficient technical weapons, and their combat capabilities are very limited. If the Donbas cluster is annihilated by the Russian army, Ukraine's military situation will deteriorate rapidly, and the Russian army's breakthrough speed may suddenly increase, freeing up its hands to launch military strikes from other places.
Of course Ukraine is also very aware of this, so Ukraine is now using a large number of newly mobilized homeland defense brigades to support and bear pressure. However, this approach is still difficult to change Ukraine’s poor exchange ratio. Western aid is compared to the Ukrainian army. This is too small a drop in the bucket in terms of scale, and this ugly exchange ratio cannot be changed at least in a short period of time. An unfavorable exchange ratio will reduce the number of young and middle-aged troops that can be mobilized in Ukraine. Although this will not lead to an immediate shortage of troops in Ukraine, it will cause a huge blow to Ukraine's morale, especially as recruitment becomes increasingly difficult.
For the Russian army, the consumption of the Ukrainian army's effective strength is the key to victory, but there are disadvantages in doing so, and that is time. It will take a very long time to consume the Ukrainian army to the point where it cannot make ends meet. However, this kind of time itself means great uncertainty, especially since it is not impossible for the Russian army to maintain such an exchange ratio. New technological equipment aided by the West and possible changes in Russia's logistical capabilities will weaken this advantage and cause longer delays.
For Russia, the most ideal thing is to annihilate Ukraine's main force and destroy Ukraine's morale. In this case, Ukraine's resistance will become increasingly fragile, and its soldiers will be depleted for a generation, truly "demilitarized." Under such circumstances, the Russian army can truly take the initiative on the battlefield and advance the control area to the east of the Dnieper River . After that, it may seek to capture Odessa and achieve connectivity with the German left region of Moldova and control all industrial areas and seaports in Ukraine. If this situation can be formed, Russia is likely to have a strong willingness to negotiate.
But can Russia go so smoothly? We can keep looking.
