Recently, China's military industry has made two important progress in exporting advanced equipment to Pakistan . On the one hand, the outside world discovered that a new batch of five J-10CEs have been shipped out of Chengdu Aircraft Factory and are expected to be delivered to the Pakistan Air Force in 1 to 2 months; on the other hand, the second batch of the four Type 054AP frigates purchased by the Pakistan Navy The ship was also officially delivered recently. These two latest developments mean that cooperation between the two countries in the military field has continued to develop to a new stage. Judging from the reaction of Pakistani public opinion, after Pakistan obtained the J-10CE and 054A, it seems that it has set its sights on a more ambitious goal, which is the J-20 and 055.
The first batch of J-10CE delivered to Pakistan
On March 7, 2022, at the reception ceremony of the first batch of J-10CE, Pakistan’s Interior Minister publicly stated to the outside world that J-10C is not the end of the fighter jet trade between the two countries. The -35 and even the J-20 are the most popular equipment of the Pakistan Air Force. As soon as this statement came out, the outside world was shocked. For senior Pakistani officials, when the J-20 has not yet met the equipment requirements of the Chinese Air Force, they frankly expressed their hope to introduce it. Most outsiders think this is unlikely. After all, the Chinese Air Force is also eager to see the J-20. In addition, Due to performance confidentiality considerations, there is almost no possibility of exporting it to the outside world at this stage. In mid-April, the Type 054AP first ship "Tuhelil", which publicly participated in military exercises for the first time, also aroused heated discussion among Pakistani people, especially its medium-range ship-to-air missiles and supersonic anti-ship missiles. has become the absolute focus.
The first Type 054AP ship "Tuhelil" purchased by Pakistan
In addition, since the transaction price of the four Type 054APs is only US$1.4 billion, it is definitely high quality and low price. The Pakistani people are quite satisfied with this and have begun to discuss whether The problem of introducing the Type 055 10,000-ton destroyer. Years ago, there would have been no room to discuss this issue for a ship of the tonnage and technical level of the 055. But now, under the influence of various factors, even the official Pakistani media has begun to discuss the performance of the 055. In particular, the latest equipment of the YJ-21 anti-ship ballistic missile is considered to be the "aircraft carrier killer" of the new era. Under the urgent situation that the Indian Navy is about to equip two 40,000-ton medium-sized aircraft carriers, this equipment is indeed can arouse strong interest from Pakistan. It can be seen that the J-20, which represents the highest level of AVIC, and the 055, which symbolizes the peak level of China Shipbuilding Industry, have become the expectations of Pakistani people for the next step of cooperation in military trade between the two countries.
Pakistani people’s discussion on the 055 is hot
As far as our country’s public opinion is concerned, whether it is the J-20 or the 055, they are regarded as the absolute most important weapons of the country and will not be easily sold to the outside world. It is generally believed that more expectations from Pakistan Just a wish. In fact, the J-20 and 055 have different meanings to the Pakistani army, and the final outcome will be significantly different. Specifically, the J-20, a heavy-duty stealth fighter, is indeed unlikely to enter service with the Pakistan Air Force in the short term. In addition to factors such as output and technical sensitivity, construction and use costs, as well as regional balance, have become two key factors that are easily overlooked. factor.
The production capacity of the J-20 cannot yet satisfy the Chinese Air Force
The U.S. F-22A is the world's first mass-produced stealth fighter, and it is a heavy-duty aircraft with a similar positioning to the J-20, so it can be regarded as the J-20 production, price, Reference object for combat positioning. However, the actual mass production of the F-22A was less than 190, and the R&D cost exceeded US$30 billion. The R&D cost shared by each F-22A exceeded US$150 million, plus the manufacturing cost of approximately US$100 million. In the end, the F-22A single aircraft The cost is as high as US$250 million. As a latecomer, the J-20 has taken less unnecessary detours, its research and development costs have been significantly reduced, and its mass production volume is expected to be no less than three times that of the F-22A. Therefore, the cost of the F-22A cannot actually be used as a reference for the cost of the J-20. In fact, although the F-35 series launched by the American Aviation Industry is a single-engine medium-sized stealth fighter, its cost is more meaningful.The limited production quantity of
F-22A results in high unit price.
F-35 series is divided into land-based F-35A, vertical take-off and landing type F-35B, and carrier-based F-35C. The latter two models have special performance requirements and the factory price is also higher. The F-35A, which is taller and has the simplest structure, has become the cheapest model. At present, the ex-factory price of the latest batch of F-35A is approaching US$75 million, and the export price is US$200 million. Without taking into account the inflation of , , and the depreciation of the US dollar, this price is approximately twice the export price of the previous generation F-16. The export price of the J-10CE to Pakistan is about US$55 million. Considering the higher cost of heavy-duty aircraft, the export price of the J-20 should be roughly US$130 million to US$150 million. This price seems quite high, but since the Pakistan Air Force can purchase 36 J-10CEs for about US$2 billion, it is completely affordable to purchase 20 J-20s at twice the price of the J-10CE in the future.
The price of the F-35A is closer to the average level of modern fighter jets
However, price is not the only problem with the export of the J-20. The special relationship between India and Pakistan means that any third party must consider both when exporting strategic equipment to them. The issue of military balance is to prevent the situation from getting out of control due to imbalance in combat power. For example, when the Indian Air Force obtained the Su-30MKI2 in the early 21st century and formed combat effectiveness in 2006, the United States decided to export F-16s to the Pakistan Air Force again in 2005. When India began to receive the legal-made Rafale F3, the J-10CE, which is also a third-and-a-half-generation fighter, immediately joined the Pakistan Air Force. This fragile balance between India and Pakistan often starts with the stronger Indian army breaking through first, and ends with the weaker Pakistan following closely behind. With the Indian Air Force currently abandoning the Russian Su-57 and being unable to obtain the US-made F-35A in the short term, the Pakistan Air Force actually has no possibility of acquiring stealth fighters in the short term.
The "Rafale" equipped by the Indian Air Force F3
If the timeline is extended to about 2030, the Chinese Air Force will have been equipped with enough J-20s by then. Not only can it meet the demand in scale, but its technical sensitivity will also increase with the imminent arrival of a new generation of fighters. If it is further reduced, the resistance of the J-20 exported by the Pakistan Air Force will be greatly reduced. Of course, due to Pakistan's economic strength and the fact that the Indian Air Force is unlikely to equip heavy stealth fighters, the Pakistan Air Force is more likely to choose the J-35 medium-sized aircraft. It’s just that there is no possibility that the J-20 will be exported to Pakistan, even if this possibility is not high. After all, for the Pakistani army, air defense is an absolute top priority, and it is a key link that must be fully controlled. It is not impossible to purchase a small amount of J-20s and J-35s at a heavy price to build a more reasonable and powerful defense system. things.
It is not impossible for the J-20 to be exported to Pakistan.
In contrast, although the status of the 055 in the country is almost the same as that of the J-20, this large warship with a displacement of more than 12,000 tons does not seem to have the possibility of joining the Pakistan Navy. On the surface, the factors affecting the export of 055 are almost the same as those of the J-20. In addition to the two issues of output and technology sensitivity that will be eliminated over time, price and strategic balance are more critical factors. When my country exported the 054AP to the Pakistani Navy, it made certain upgrades to the shipboard equipment in accordance with the needs of buyers, including the installation of the phased array radar and the export model of the YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship missile (the domestically produced 054A is equipped with the Asian Sonic Eagle Strike-83), while its tonnage has increased, its performance has also been significantly improved. Of course, the cost has also risen to a certain extent. The combination of
055 and YJ-21 is powerful.
Based on the price of 054AP single ship of US$350 million, the cost of domestically produced 054A will not be higher than US$280 million. Based on this ratio and the widely circulated cost of RMB 6 billion, the price of the export-oriented 055 will reach US$1.2 billion. This price seems unaffordable for the Pakistani Navy, but in fact, when Pakistan signed a purchase contract for eight S-20P submarines with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation in 2019, the contract price was as high as US$5 billion. In other words, thanks to CSSC’s low construction costs and good bilateral relations, the Pakistani army is fully able to withstand heavy equipment such as the J-20 and 055.However, the J-20 and 055 have completely different meanings to the Pakistani army, leaving a huge gap in the possibility of their appearance in Pakistan.
The S-20P submarine exported to Pakistan
Currently, the Indian Navy has a medium-sized aircraft carrier equipped with MiG-29K carrier-based aircraft. Its domestically produced "Vikrant" is expected to enter service this fall and will be equipped with a US-made F/A- 18E/F or legal Rafale-M carrier-based aircraft. Although these two aircraft carriers and the carrier-based aircraft they carry are not considered the best in the world, there is no big problem in ensuring a combat radius of about 500 kilometers. If the Pakistan Navy really purchases Type 055, even if the technically sensitive YJ-21 cannot be exported, it can ensure an anti-ship distance of about 500 kilometers by upgrading the ship-based missile , making it possible to fight against the Indian aircraft carrier formation. However, in anti-ship, especially anti-aircraft carrier operations, having the anti-ship missile with sufficient range is only the most basic condition. How to detect the opponent's constantly moving aircraft carrier formation in the vast sea is the most critical and difficult problem.
The Indian Navy's active aircraft carrier "Vikramaditya"
The Pakistan Navy has the ability to purchase and use the 055 under the best efforts, but building a complete anti-aircraft carrier reconnaissance and surveillance system is completely beyond the scope of its capabilities. After the Pakistani Navy suffered heavy losses in the second Indo-Pakistani War, it has clearly understood its level and has made it clear that it will use underwater submarines to deter the Indian aircraft carrier formation. The surface formation only maintains a certain size and mainly relies on shore positions. Defensive strategic objectives. This model cannot guarantee that the Pakistani Navy can gain sea control, but it is already the best choice when resources are limited. This is fundamentally different from the fact that the Chinese Navy is actively moving into the distant seas and constantly expanding the quality and scale of its surface fleets. Therefore, although 055 is good, it is actually completely unsuitable for the Pakistan Navy, and the possibility of joining the latter in the future is zero.
055Although strong, it is not suitable for the Pakistan Navy
To sum up, the J-20 can play a role in building a modern air combat node and strengthening air combat capabilities for the air forces of both countries. However, it is subject to technical sensitivity, high cost, etc. Affected by various factors, it will be difficult for Pakistan to obtain the J-20 in the short term. After 8-10 years, most of the above problems will be solved, especially once India equips stealth fighters, the J-20 may still enter the Pakistan Air Force's combat order. The 055 is completely different. As the iconic equipment of the Chinese Navy's march to the open sea, it is the absolute main force of the open sea fleet, but this has no meaning for the Pakistan Navy. No matter what huge advantages the 055 has in terms of performance and cost, it is already an unsolvable problem. Therefore, there is no possibility of the 055 joining the Pakistan Navy.
The J-20 can significantly improve the combat effectiveness of the Pakistan Air Force.
The J-20 and 055 have completely different meanings to the Pakistani army. It is also a true portrayal of the fact that the Pakistani army has been strengthening its air force for many years, while the development of the navy is in a relatively secondary position. This can also be roughly seen in the current procurement process of 054AP and J-10CE. A total of 4 054APs are the entire purchase order of the Pakistan Navy, and there is basically no possibility of increase in the future. In comparison, the total price of 36 J-10CEs is not only higher than that of four 054APs, but there is also the possibility of additional purchases in the future. By the way, I would like to mention the production capacity issue of the J-10C. As a tester of some equipment of the J-20, based on the need to expand the scale production of Chinese Air Force fighter equipment, the J-10C has perfectly completed its historical mission. Regarding the J-10, which was supposed to gradually reduce production as the J-20 production increased, until it was finally discontinued, a very interesting point of view has been circulated recently, that is, the J-10C production line can be transferred from the Chengdu aircraft manufacturing plant to Guiyang Aircraft Manufacturing plant.
The J-10CE once attracted great attention from the outside world.
An important basis for this view is a New Year's card issued by Guizhou Airlines at the beginning of the year and Chengfei's move to increase its shareholding in the former. The final result of a series of speculations is that the J-10C production line is relocated to Guihang Airlines, which can increase J-10C production when necessary and meet the role of external exports, while Chengdu can concentrate on the production and improvement of the J-20 .
This view seems reasonable, but it seriously ignores the difficulty of relocating fighter aircraft, especially advanced fighter production lines. Although the J-10C is the model with the lowest technical standards among the "Three Musketeers of the Air Force", it is still a third-and-a-half-generation fighter that does everything in its power. Looking at the world, there are only a handful of manufacturers that can produce fighters of this level. As an organization that mainly develops military training aircraft, Guihang’s level is simply not enough to ensure the mass production of the J-10C in a short period of time.
The technical level of the J-10C is not low.
It also makes no sense to say that this kind of relocation, which takes at least two or three years, is to ensure the possible future demand and export of the J-10C. After all, the J-10C is only a medium-sized third-generation and a half fighter. With the J-20 and J-16 heavy-duty aircraft being mass-produced, and the J-35 expected to be in mass production around 2025, the J-10C has no future. It makes absolutely no sense to continue the J-10C production capacity at high relocation costs. As for the New Year greeting card released by Guizhou Airlines, it actually only has a blurry image similar to the J-10, and there are other military aircraft that are not produced by Guizhou Airlines, which is not enough to explain anything. As for the shareholding increase, it is even simpler. Just take a look at the former's real major shareholders and the actions of increasing shareholdings in recent years, and you will understand that this has nothing to do with the J-10C itself.
Coach-9 is Guizhou Airlines’ most well-known product
For Pakistan, benefiting from the large number of J-10C equipment, it can purchase the export-oriented J-10CE at a lower price. However, as the equipment of the J-10C is coming to an end, the production of the J-10CE is also unsustainable. Therefore, after the Pakistan Air Force has received the J-10CE and gradually become familiar with and masters its performance, it is very likely to place another batch of orders to better form a high-low match with the " Xiaolong " until the arrival of a new era. Regardless of whether the J-20 can be exported in the end, the cooperation represented by the J-10CE, 054AP, SH-15, and Hongqi-9P in recent years makes the future military trade between the two countries very worth looking forward to.
