After Medvede, the former Russian president and current chairman of the ruling party, quietly visited China and returned to Russia, the Russian media broke the news that the Russian government would use 6.96 million square kilometers of land in the entire Far East to jointly establish a single, unified "super-large special economic zone" for cooperation with China. China has invested in 79 major projects in Russia, with a total investment of up to 160 billion US dollars. Although the news has been reported by
media, the Chinese and Russian governments have not come forward to announce or confirm it. This is in line with China's consistent low-key nature and is unwilling to make high-profile announcements before the good thing is done to avoid embarrassment. There may be two reasons: first, the relevant cooperation content is still being formulated, and the details have to be finalized by the negotiation teams of both parties; second, a suitable time and occasion is needed for the leaders of the two countries to announce it. Comprehensive analysis by
shows that this news is actually quite reliable. In one sentence, it can be summarized as "the man is affectionate and the concubine is interested", and the timing is just right.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the development of Far East was an important strategy for Russia. In recent years, as the relationship between Russia and the United States and the European Union has become increasingly tense, the development of the Far East has become more and more urgent. The Eastern Economic Forum has been held for 7 sessions. As for us in China, as the United States intensifies the pace of containment and containment, we urgently need to find a huge resource pool to ensure resource security for the country's economic development when China and the United States' bayonets see red.
To be honest, China was more eager to demand Russian resources before this, and Russia actually prefers Japanese and European and American capital to invest in the Far East due to various complex reasons. After all, many Russians are quite wary of China due to historical reasons. In addition, Russia also hopes for a situation of multi-party competition, so it is ready to sell its products in the Far East.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the situation suddenly became very different. On the one hand, the relationship between Russia and the West has completely broken down. Western sanctions will severely damage Russia's economy in the future. Developing the Far East and integrating into the Asian economic cycle have become imminent real problems for Russia. On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made it impossible for the United States, the European Union, and Japan to invest in Russia for at least ten years. China is the only country that has the strength to invest in the Russian Far East.
Based on the above reasons, I am still very optimistic about the prospects of Sino-Russian cooperation in developing the Far East. However, many people have jumped out to pour cold water on China-Russia cooperation. The first is that the risk is too great, and in the end, the meat buns may beat the dog; the second is that there is money to revitalize the Russian Far East, why not use the money to revitalize the Northeast; the third is that the contract signed with Putin, what should the Russians do in the post-Putin era if they do not accept the agreement?
I personally feel that these people are overly worried.
First, there is no investment without risk. For the United States, China's large trade surplus would be better spent buying their national debt, but that is the biggest risk we face. China's investment in Russia's Far East is definitely not for charity, but because of the rich resources there. We hope that Russia's Far East can become our base and rear for safely acquiring various resources, while Russia is conducive to China's investment and development of the Far East. Both sides get what they need, win-win cooperation, and are highly complementary. Some people should not overestimate their own IQ and underestimate the IQ of the national negotiation team. Even Putin lamented when talking about the China-Russia natural gas cooperation agreement, "Our Chinese friends are tough negotiators. Of course, any deal is based on their national interests, which is very correct."
Secondly, some people misrepresent such investment cooperation as helping Putin revitalize the Far East, making ordinary people mistakenly believe that China's investment in Russia is to imitate Lei Feng and do good deeds. This understanding is wrong. To be honest, the Chinese want to gain benefits when investing in Russia, especially important national strategic interests. They will invest only if it is beneficial to us, and they will not invest if it is not beneficial to me. As for whether China's investment can be used to revitalize the Far East, that is something Russia needs to consider. In addition, investing in Russia can also diversify the risk of excessive concentration of overseas assets in the West. It is also conducive to the elimination of domestic excess production capacity and the internationalization of the RMB. There are many benefits.
Thirdly, as for some people’s worries about not accepting credit in the post-Putin era, that is purely unfounded. The friendly relationship between China and Russia cannot be sustained long-lasting by any one person. It mainly relies on the deep connection of interests between the two parties to make it long-lasting. As long as the interests of China and Russia are deeply bound, no matter who comes to power, they will not dare to destroy the friendly relations between China and Russia. And our use of Russia to develop and invest in the Far East is not weakening but strengthening Russia's dependence on China. This dependence can only be good for us, not bad.
At present, we should seize Russia's disillusionment with the dream of integrating into Europe and try our best to draw Russia into the Asian camp. Whether it is a political game or an economic competition, the big fish eats the small fish. In the future, China and the United States will compete to see who has the bigger cycle. It is of course a huge benefit for a country of Russia's size that is friendly to China to integrate into the Asian political and economic cycle dominated by China.