On May 26 this year, US Secretary of State Blinken announced at George Washington University the Biden administration's China policy speech that in order to deal with China issues, the US State Department would soon establish a "China Group."
Now, it's here.
On December 16, the U.S. State Department established the "Office of China Affairs Coordination", informally known as the "China Group." This office will replace the previous "China Coordination Office" under the Asia-Pacific Bureau of the US State Department, with approximately 60 to 70 members. The purpose is to integrate and strengthen China policies and set policy priorities.
Blinken said at the launch ceremony that day that the agency will bring together China experts from the U.S. State Department and outside the State Department. They will "work side by side" with colleagues from the U.S. State Department responsible for other regions around the world, as well as experts in international security, economy, technology, multilateral diplomacy and strategic communication.
The U.S. State Department emphasized that the "China Group" is an important part of Blinken's State Department modernization plan, and the focus is to ensure that it is prepared to meet the challenges of in the next 10 years.
I have to say that Americans have a very keen sense of strategy, and the "next 10 years" is by no means an empty talk. It is certain that competition between China and the United States will become fiercer in the next 10 years.
During the Trump era, the United States' National Strategy Report also defined China and Russia as rivals. Biden removed Russia as soon as he came to power, believing that China was the only country that had the ability and willingness to compete with the United States. Since then, the U.S. policy toward China has entered a new stage.
In 2021, Blinken proposed a China policy framework of "competition, cooperation, and confrontation" . By May this year, he revised the China policy to "investment, collaboration, and competition" .
It can be seen that Blinken deleted the most sensitive word "confrontation" and turned to more pragmatic domestic investment and international coordination, but the main line of competition with China has not been shaken.
This is because the United States has reached a consensus that China is the United States' biggest opponent in the future. American politicians are eager to mobilize all resources to suppress and smear China. From legislation to propaganda, from economy to technology, vows to weave an airtight giant network to tightly trap the soaring Chinese dragon in the network.
Although it is already the world's leading power, the United States continues to suppress other countries, which shows its strong political thinking inertia.
In his book "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics", the famous American international politics scholar John Mearsheimer once proposed a theory of international relations - offensive realism.
This theory believes that the international community is a dark, life-or-death and dangerous environment. It is impossible for countries to understand each other's true intentions. Only by adopting offensive thinking and actions, taking precautions against each other in advance, and pursuing hegemony can we avoid national tragedies.
Mearsheimer 's view can be called a realistic version of the "dark forest" theory, but the American elite seems to increasingly agree with this idea. Jonuc Popescu, an assistant professor of political science at Texas State University and an officer in the U.S. Naval Reserve, wrote in the article "It's Time to Recognize the Reality of Great Power Politics" that offensive realism is currently more in line with the interests of the United States than liberal internationalism and defensive realism.
For the United States, "Everyone is not guilty, but he is guilty of having a treasure." It is a mistake to be powerful. If it does not obey its command, it is simply an unpardonable crime.
The United States, dominated by this kind of thinking, is like a poisonous snake entrenched on the throne, staring viciously at all those who try to approach the throne of comprehensive strength.
And the country closest to the throne now is China.
At present, the economic gap between China and the United States is accelerating to narrow.
The total economic output of the United States in 2021 is 22 trillion U.S. dollars, while China's is 17 trillion U.S. dollars in the same period, reaching 77% of the United States. This is a unique situation among countries that challenged U.S. hegemony in the past.
If calculated based on purchasing power parity, China's economic aggregate has surpassed that of the United States in 2014.
The economic gap between China and the United States has narrowed so fast. This was once considered impossible in the past. That is, China and the United States can only reduce the gap relatively, but China will never catch up with the United States. But now the mainstream view is that China's economic aggregate will surpass the United States within 10 years, that is, before 2030. Even the most optimistic Western institutions about the United States believe that China’s economic aggregate will surpass that of the United States by 2035 at the latest. In other words, the window period left for the United States to act is rapidly tightening, and it is only five years at most.
If we try to contain China in five years, it will have almost no real meaning. Because at that time, China's economic aggregate may have been close to 90% of the United States, and the United States was unable to suppress such a large opponent.
Secondly, China’s relative military advantage is improving significantly.
As a global hegemon, the United States has military bases all over the world, and its military expenditure is nearly four times that of China. However, the expenditures between China and the U.S. are extremely asymmetric. The United States is for maintaining global hegemony, while China is for regional defense.
Therefore, in the South China Sea and even the entire Indo-Pacific region, the US military is currently unable to concentrate all its forces to deal with the People's Liberation Army. The People's Liberation Army has certain advantages in terms of the number of ships and land-based support.
In the next 10 years, China's ability to project military resources will be greatly improved, and anti-submarine technology and hypersonic weapons will also be applied within 10 years. Once it takes shape, it will be difficult for the United States to respond to China’s military challenges in the Asia-Pacific. US media believe that China’s goal is to have the world’s largest and most advanced military force in the next 10 years. Even the famous American think tank Rand Corporation released a research report on December 8, which pointed out that if China is determined, it can develop a global military base network in the next 20 years.
Global Military Base Network, this term has been exclusive to the US military for the past 30 years. Now there is the possibility of changing the family background, and the American social elite will never tolerate this .
It can be said that Washington is reaching a consensus: the next 10 years will be "decisive" for China and the United States. Whoever can seize this period will be able to take the initiative in the long-term competition between the two sides.
In the view of this U.S. government headed by Biden, China will surely follow in the footsteps of the Soviet Union and fail in the "10-year offensive" in the 21st century.
As a politician who grew up during the " Cold War " period, Biden witnessed the Soviet Union's most declining period and the United States' most prosperous period. In the 1970s, the Soviet Union was at its peak, and an international pattern of "the Soviet Union attacking the United States and defending the United States" was formed. However, in the 1980s, the United States began to adopt a tough attitude. Finally, under the combined effect of various factors, the Soviet Union collapsed just 10 years after the "Soviet attack and the United States defended." This period of history has left an indelible historical impression on American politicians, including Biden, and has a profound impact on the behavior of the Biden administration. They are looking forward to the Soviet Union's "10-year" curse coming true again in China.
But history will not simply repeat itself, and China will not repeat the mistakes of the Soviet Union.
The biggest difference between China and the Soviet Union is that China is deeply embedded in the international division of labor system and has deep economic and trade relations with mainstream countries in the world. Once China leaves the " world factory ", many developed countries will have problems with basic food and clothing, let alone the development of their own high-tech industries.
At that time, the Soviet Union was limited to the Warsaw Pact system, and its relationship with major consumer markets and economic powers such as Japan, West Germany , the United Kingdom, and France was not close enough. A large number of goods could only be digested internally by these less wealthy countries. The United States can use NATO allies and the US dollar system to open up the free market and continuously enhance its economic strength. This was an important reason for the Soviet Union's failure in the Cold War.
In other words, the more deeply a country is embedded in the world economic and trade system, the stronger its national strength will be over time. This was true for the United States at that time, and it is true for China now.
In view of this, the United States has begun a highly targeted "progressive" decoupling from China - not only decoupling between China and the United States, but also coercing its allies to decouple together. The purpose is to reduce China's participation in the world economic and trade system and force China into a state like the "former Soviet Union" that can only digest goods internally. In the end, the West will be defeated without a fight. " New York Times " published an article on December 19, stating that the United States should try its best to avoid military confrontation with China and must continue dialogue and cooperation with China in areas of mutual benefit, but at the same time it must proactively initiate strategic decoupling in key areas. It can be said that the agencies have been exhausted.
However, time is on our side, and morality is also on our side. Our goal has never been to defeat or conquer a country, but to reshape an international order that is more suitable for the development of the times and the evolution of mankind. If the United States is willing to work with China to reshape such an order, then Sino-US relations will surely usher in a dawn;
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