direct news: Putin latest statement that Russia is considering following the concept of "preemptive attack" on the US side, what does this mean? Has the Russian side's stance of nuclear weapons changed? How likely is it to "take the initiative"?
Special commentator Shi Hong: It can be seen that Putin is anxious and angry now. What is anxious is that the end of the Russian-Ukraine conflict seems to be far away as the West continues to support Ukraine. However, there is not much time left for Putin to calmly respond to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, because Russia will hold a new presidential election in 2024. If Russia cannot end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict or make major progress on the battlefield in the next year, Putin's probability of participating in the 2024 Russian presidential election and winning will be greatly reduced. Even if Putin does not participate in the 2024 Russian presidential election, it will be difficult for Putin to give candidates that he is satisfied to the presidential throne if there is no obvious favorable situation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. What is angry is that the current "fire-up" behavior of the United States has not only not restrained, but has become more and more severe. For example, the United States acquiesced to Ukraine to attack Russian local targets and discusses providing long-range offensive weapons to Ukraine. At the same time, the number of troops and weapons deployed by NATO around Russia is also increasing, which shows that the United States has seen through Russia's obvious lack of countermeasures in conventional forces, and the courage to "fire-up" is naturally getting stronger and stronger.
Faced with the increasingly aggressive posture of the United States and NATO, Putin's only powerful card is nuclear weapon . A few days ago, Putin said that Russia would not use nuclear weapons under any circumstances, but only used them when Russia was attacked. But what disappointed Putin was that he did not have the positive reaction he wanted, and instead the United States believed that Russia could not withstand it. In desperation, Putin had to say that he was considering "preemptive" and tried to use this to warn the United States and NATO not to do too much. However, if the consequences of this card are too serious, Putin will not easily play it, otherwise Putin would not say that Russia's hypersonic weapons and cruise missiles are more advanced than the United States. However, this sentence deliberately emphasizes that Russia's excellent hypersonic weapons and cruise missiles have excellent performance is a superfluous way, which will make the United States more convinced that Putin does not have the determination to "take the initiative". After all, Russia is seriously insufficient in strength and has very few options when competing with the United States and NATO, which seems to be extremely passive.
Direct News: German media said that Germany will provide Ukraine with two sets of "Skynet" air defense systems in 2024. What is your analysis on this?
Special Commentator Shi Hong: "Skynet" is a short-range air defense weapon system developed by German Rheinmetallurgical company . It is characterized by its very modularity. It can arbitrarily combine medium-detection distance air defense radar, photoelectric detection system, 35mm "Sky Guard" single-bar anti-cannon, short-range air defense missiles, laser weapons and electronic interference devices, which can deal with various aerodynamic aerial targets. However, its impact on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is very small. First, the delivery time is in 2024, and the distance cannot quench the near-thirst; second, the defense range is too small, and the weapon with the farthest range in the system is only 10 kilometers, which can only be used to cover a very small number of important targets. For Ukraine's national air defense, it is undoubtedly a drop in the bucket.
The real meaning of Germany providing Ukrainian "Skynet" air defense system is to show the outside world that Germany is providing long-term weapon support to Ukraine. Even if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ends, Germany will not stop military aid to Ukraine. Germany's approach and the United States formulated military aid plan to Ukraine in the next three years enable us to clearly see that Ukraine will be completely NATO in the future. In fact, the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has rapidly NATO-enabled the Ukrainian army, because two-thirds of the weapons and equipment currently used by the Ukrainian army are provided by NATO, and the Ukrainian army is becoming more and more skilled in using NATO weapons and equipment and their tactics through actual combat.As the Soviet system's weapons and equipment decreased rapidly in the Ukrainian army, while NATO weapons were still being supplied continuously, the Ukrainian army will inevitably become completely NATO in terms of equipment system, tactical ideas, organizational system, etc. This means that even if Ukraine cannot join NATO for a long time in the future, the Ukrainian army will become increasingly important to NATO in the future.
Author丨Shi Hong, Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
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