Author: Li Yunfei | Source: Original
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Saudi rejected the US request and collectively reduced oil production significantly. Is international oil prices going to rise again? Why are major oil-producing countries around the world now starting to join forces to reduce oil production and not give the United States some face? Are you really not afraid of the hegemony of the United States? What exactly happened?
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We all know that the United States has made great efforts to develop its domestic economy this year. If you want to improve the US economy, controlling inflation is the primary mission. So we all see that since this year, the US dollar has started hiking interest rates in and hiking the world's wealth regardless of the interests of other countries.
Lao Bai even put his composure to Middle East , demanding that Saudi Arabia increase oil production. The Americans’ meaning is very clear, which is to ask the whole world to help the United States cut inflation . However, through so many years of cooperation with the United States, Saudi Arabia has actually seen the face of the United States. Due to face, it originally planned to increase oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, but later it became a coping method that only increased by 100,000 barrels per day.
When the United States sees this, it won’t work. The high inflation in the United States still cannot be controlled. So we began to vigorously release domestic oil reserves. While asking OPEC 2 to increase oil production, the US is vigorously releasing oil reserves, and even calling on India and China to release oil reserves together to reduce oil prices and make the cost of economic recovery a little lower.
With the efforts of the United States, international oil prices have finally been controlled to $76 per barrel. But this price has fallen below the psychological base price of OPEC . Because the expected price of OPEC is $90 per barrel.
When Saudi Arabia saw this situation, the United States had cut its core interests, so it tore off its face and gave it no face at all. It was called the oil-producing countries' own interests and decided not to increase oil production, but also to plan to reduce oil production. Because the oil market may collapse if it does not reduce production, and oil prices may fall to $50 per barrel. As soon as this call came out, it was unanimously agreed by all oil-producing member states.
Now, the OPEC organization and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have jointly decided to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day starting from November, with the deadline being the end of December 2023. This is the largest oil reduction measure since the epidemic, equivalent to about 2% of global oil demand.
This was completely beyond the expectations of the United States. I originally thought that you would only cut production by 1 million barrels at most, but I didn’t expect it to double now. Some US media said that the move may lead to a surge in oil prices, which will put further pressure on U.S. inflation.
Next, let’s talk about why Saudi Arabia dares to fight against the United States and get close to Russia?
Don’t forget that Saudi Arabia and Russia are the most important member states among OPEC+ member states. Saudi Arabia dares to do this clearly is trying to fight the United States and support Russia!
The reason is, first of all, that is, what the US has done in recent years has completely disappointed most countries, and everyone sees it.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine was inspired by the United States, right? Not to mention the strong interest rate hike in the US dollar to harvest the wealth of the world, right? Even the American younger brother EU supports the United States so much, what will happen in the end? Due to the shortage of natural gas and electricity in Europe, the United States is now doing something to cut off the fire, which is to dig up large EU companies and then sell natural gas to Europe at a high price, so that a ship can make a big profit of 150 million US dollars.
So Saudi Arabia doesn't want to get so close to the United States now, because Saudi Arabia knows that the United States turns against others, and the closer it gets, the more hurt it will be in the end.
Secondly, the economic recession in Western countries is inevitable.
Now the US Treasury bonds have reached the highest level in history, breaking the critical point of 31 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to 1.36 times that of the US GDP in 2021, and it is even more than the total economic output of China, Japan, Germany and the UK in 2021. Calculated based on the US population of 330 million, it is equivalent to the per capita debt of more than US$290,000 and RMB 600,000-700,000. 这么多的负债美国怎么还呢？ The key is that the current high inflation in the United States is not falling, and the continued interest rate hike in the US dollar will further increase the risk of a recession in the United States.
Let’s take a look at the situation in the EU? Due to the sanctions on Russia, it has led to a serious natural gas crisis and power crisis. Now it has been cut by the United States and will face the oil crisis in the future. The key is to maintain the stability of the euro. How good can the EU economy be in this situation?
Since the economic recession in Western countries is inevitable, if Saudi Arabia still supports them, it will only be skinned in the end.难道沙特傻吗？ This is also the ultimate reason why Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ dare to fight the United States.
On the contrary, these oil-producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran , Argentina , Egypt , all want to use the relationship between Russia to join BRICS countries and get close to China. After all, China's economy is stable and its development potential is strong.
Let’s talk about it again. What will the Americans do next?
继续投放储备石油？ If the United States chooses to continue to increase the release of oil reserves, how long can it last? By then, there will definitely be security problems in the United States' oil, and this path is not a long-term solution.
So what about increasing oil production in the United States? We must know that most of the oil companies in the United States are run by private bosses, and they will definitely put money first. If international oil prices rise sharply, oil prices in the United States will definitely rise, so why should they not be able to get by with money? Therefore, it is OK for the United States to increase its domestic oil production, but it is unlikely that it will reduce the price of oil.
Finally, the United States is likely to take some unconventional measures to seize unsteady oil-producing countries. But in other words, the world influence of the United States has been greatly reduced. Once everyone starts to join forces to keep warm, can the United States get what they want and get what they want?
This is really the Americans sell natural gas to Europe at a high price. Now Saudi Arabia has started selling oil to the United States at a high price. It is a bit funny to think about it!
But next, as international oil prices rise sharply, my country's oil prices will definitely rise, after all, my country is also the world's largest oil importer. But with Russia, Iran, and even Saudi Arabia using RMB to settle oil trade, our country's oil prices will definitely not rise as outrageously as Western countries.
Author: Li Yunfei, founder of a well-known Internet company and CEO of a large food chain company. He has been engaged in the Internet and physical chain industry for 16 years. He has been reported continuously by well-known media platforms such as Sohu.com, NetEase Finance, Tencent , Phoenix.com , Zhongxun.com , Baidu and other well-known media platforms. He is good at financial knowledge analysis and entrepreneurial guidance!
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