This international commentary by Uncle Mu is to analyze the energy security issues in Europe.
On October 13, the German government declassified an evaluation document for the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline. At the same time, former German Prime Minister Merkel also made new statements on Nord Stream 2.
A judgment that Uncle Mu draws from it is:
Basically, we can see that Europeans were too careless about their energy security in the past. Now that Europe is facing such a passive energy security situation after the Russian-Ukraine War, it is equivalent to paying for the blind optimism of the past few decades.
This risk assessment by the German government was prepared on October 26, 2021, and Merkel was the head of the government at the time.
Uncle Mu saw that the decrypted document pointed out that the certification of the natural gas pipeline "will not endanger the safety of supplying natural gas to Germany and the EU ".
The document states that for German and neighbouring markets, the risk of serious obstacles to safe supply due to failures in a single supply infrastructure is very limited.
Merkel expressed her views almost at the same time, saying that she did not think that signing energy cooperation with Russia was a mistake at that time.
Even in a sense, natural gas is not a weapon of Russia.
Merkel believes that from the perspective of the time, it was very reasonable to obtain Russian pipeline natural gas because Russia is cheaper than getting liquefied natural gas from other parts of the world.
She also gave this example, that is, even during the Cold War between the West and Russia, there was no problem with Russian natural gas entering Europe.
Germany Prime Ministers
However, Merkel admitted that the situation changed after the Russian-Ukrainian war, which was a turning point.
So she believes that the new German government must deal with new situations involving natural gas, and the new government has done it. This shows that Merkel also recognizes the current German government's policies on energy issues.
Objectively speaking, Uncle Mu also agrees with Merkel's statement. Indeed, Europe can draw the conclusion that Russian natural gas is cheap and easy to use from historical experience.
It’s just that they rely on Russia for almost 50% of energy including oil, natural gas, coal, etc., which seems too careless, too strategic vision, and too lack of risk awareness.
Therefore, today's Europeans have to pay for these carelessness and lack of risk awareness in the past. It is also sufficient to enjoy the era of cheap energy for decades. It is inevitable to endure the temporary dilemma brought about by the transformation of energy dependence.
And for long-term security, there is no way to endure high inflation. In the long run, these are nothing.
This reminds Uncle Mu of the situation in Israel.
Israel is surrounded by major oil countries, and its energy is very cheap, but Israel cannot use it, so it imports energy from non- Middle East countries at a high price. This is how people have been through it for decades.
Although the people also complain, the economy should develop and society should progress. Israel is already a free economy with a per capita of 40,000 US dollars, and the people of these nearby Middle East energy powers are still fighting for basic rights such as veil and scarf! It can be seen that the meaning and value of their lives are vastly different.
So if Europeans really consider their future, learn to learn from Israel!
has to endure the pain of short-term inflation and rising energy prices, which they are paying for the lack of strategic vision for politicians for decades.
From this, it also draws a conclusion, or a lesson--cheap energy is not foolproof, but benefits are eternal. In complex international relations, anything may happen, and may suddenly appear, so you cannot rely on anyone.
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