[Editor's Note] This article is authorized by the author. The "Qin'an Strategy" is exclusively original published on the Toutiao platform , and is reprinted from the official account "Kujian Intellectual and Foreign Major". author Wang Gaigai, founder and dean of GDYT, a major diplomatic think tank, .
As the US midterm election approaches, the contest between the US Democratic Party and the Republican Party has begun. Although former Secretary of State Hillary previously officially announced on a show that she would not participate in the 2024 election, Dick Morris, who served as her husband and adviser to former US President Bill Clinton, recently said on a radio show that there are more and more signs that Hillary will participate in the presidential election.
Wang Gaigai, director of GDYT, a major diplomatic think tank, made an analysis nine months ago and wrote a political report. Now, some ideas have come true.
The US government led by Biden is facing increasing doubts, with at least four major flaws, which will become his fatal weakness in the 2024 election.
first, Biden's representativeness is not broad enough, and his public opinion base is too weak. It only represents the American Wall Street bourgeoisie, not welcomed by extreme left and extreme right extreme right populists, the Democratic Party is trapped in a line battle, and Biden himself lacks the ability to balance;
second, Biden has a weak personality and has no courage, and dares not take responsibility when encountering major events, and is timid. Although his team composition pays great attention to "political correctness", many of them come from minorities and women, but these people lack political experience. He and Blinken , Sullivan has formed an administrative pattern of "an old man leads two inexperienced children";
3, Biden is very old, stuttering, dementia, forgetfulness, Vice President Harris is said to be a domineering president who is difficult to serve, and his subordinates resign and it is difficult to replace Biden;
4, Biden's governance performance under the new crown epidemic is poor, and his response methods violate science, making the United States full of terror scenes, and public opinion declines sharply.
Someone in the US "Politician" pointed out that the Biden administration's infrastructure construction "Rebuilding a Better Future Act" (Build Back Better Act) is doomed to fail. The possibility of current Vice President Harris taking over is very small, his administrative ability is too weak and his domineering personality, representing extreme left forces and not favored by financial owners.
Another news circulated recently: Hillary, who once ran for president in 2016, saw the opportunity and was eager to return to politics. According to media reports, Clinton's senior aide, Morris (Dick Morris) recently said that it is difficult for Biden-Harris' cabinet to continue to rule, and 74-year-old Hillary is expected to come out again.
In addition, Hillary is really eager to try it out. She has recently begun to speak out on purpose and frequently criticize Biden. She positioned herself as Biden's heir. Democratic political adviser Schön (Doug Schoen) believes that Hillary "is an experienced national celebrity, younger than Biden. Compared with Biden's chaotic and unpopular policies, it can also propose completely different new methods."
Compared with Biden, Hillary does have the following advantages.
first, Hillary's popularity and connections are better than Biden, and she is a well-deserved socialite of the Democratic Party. She is not only supported by the establishment, but also good at pleasing the extreme left, representing the interests of minorities and LGBT groups;
Second, Hillary has a strong personality, aggressive, good at speaking, and strong offensiveness, and Biden does not have these characteristics;
Third, although Hillary is also very old, she is still much younger than Biden. Although Hillary is not in good health, she is not as forgetful as Biden;
Fourth, Hillary has the support of former President Clinton.
However, so far, Hillary has never made it clear whether she will participate in the 2024 presidential election.Although she has always cared about politics and waited for the opportunity, she may not really dare to do it again. Her real enemy is probably herself. Because she was defeated by Trump in 2016, if she faced Trump again in 2024, she is likely to be defeated again. I'm afraid she has to weigh this carefully.
The first enemy that Hillary faced was not Trump, but Biden himself. Because Hillary is now preparing to run for the election with the appearance of a middle-line, which is different from Biden's philosophy. If she wants to replace Biden Belarus, she will definitely be boycotted by the powerful extreme left forces within the party, which will be very unfavorable to the Democratic Party. According to past experience, the middle line cannot be successful and will eventually be abandoned in the showdown between the two parties. This also means that Hillary may miss the opportunity to reach the top of the throne of White House after 16 years.
In terms of the Republican Party, Trump has also expressed his desire to make a comeback in 2024 more and more clearly. After Trump's 2020 election failed, it was banned for half a year due to the ban on social media. Now he is expressing his plan to make a comeback more and more clear.
Previously, Bannon and some other Republican tycoons suggested that he impeach Biden after the midterm elections, and Trump said he was accused. Given his Republican support rate, this is likely to be true. Trump once severely damaged the US constitutionalism on January 6 last year, and will once again impeach Biden after this midterm elections.
Five days ago, at a rally called "Save America" held in a small town in Florence, Arizona, United States, Trump delivered a gunpowder speech to more than 15,000 enthusiastic supporters, and criticized Biden. He criticized Biden's handling of withdrawal from Afghanistan, border issues and inflation, saying "our country is being completely destroyed by Biden", and the response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic under Biden is a disaster.
More importantly, in an interview, Trump kept complaining about the failure of the 2020 election, saying that the Democratic Party and Biden "stole the election" and refused to accept the result of the failure of the election two years ago.
According to polls, 40% of Republican voters currently agree with Trump's views on the 2020 election and refuse to recognize Biden's legitimacy. In addition, nearly 60% of the Republicans support Trump in running for president again, which is a very high proportion. This means that as long as Trump wants, his nomination within the Republican Party will not be a problem, and other colleagues cannot challenge his position.
Moreover, the victory of the Republican Party in this year's midterm elections is a high probability event. Once you win, Trump's chance to take revenge will come immediately. This means that Hillary is still facing the dilemma of choice. If she runs for the Democratic Party again, can she be confident of defeating Trump? If she fails again, it means that the Democratic Party is out of reach: The Democratic Party has become a nursing home that cannot train successors.
If Hillary fails again, it will also mean the complete failure of traditional American liberal ideas. Mainstream politicians of the Democratic and Republican parties are completely unpopular, and Trumpism will ultimately represent the direction of the United States. The United States is probably going further and further on the roads of isolationism, extreme nationalism, populism, and racism.
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