The "turning point" has appeared, and the time for "mediation" has come, but who can mediate?
The "Russia-Ukraine War" has a "turning point". There are three landmark events:
is the best time for relevant countries to mediate. There was no way to mediate before, and even if a country wanted to mediate, both sides would not accept it.
Because the "special military operation" was initiated by Russia, they will not give up until they achieve their goals; at this time, Russia will not listen to mediation.
With the support of the United States and the West, Ukraine wants to fight to the end with Russia as if it was injected with chicken blood. They not only want to repel Russia's "invasion", but also take back Crimea . Mediation, Ukraine does not accept it.
The main factors that broke out in the "Russia-Ukraine War" have now disappeared: Russia has achieved its own goals; Ukraine has also completed its own procedures to join NATO.
Zelensky signed the document to join NATO
The "North Stream Pipeline" was bombed, and European countries dominated by Germany were like enlightened and suddenly understood what they were. The German government has decided to no longer support Ukraine.
So, now is the best time to mediate.
But who will mediate? It is not suitable for the United States and the Eastern powers because these two countries have their own attitudes. European countries are not good either, they have their own biased stance.
Perhaps India, Saudi , Türkiye and other countries can mediate, and Russia and Ukraine can accept it.
The eastern part of Ukraine joined the Russian Federation, which was the ultimate goal of Putin
After the collapse of , although the fifteen franchise republics each independent, Russia, the main body of the Soviet Union, still plays an important role in the fifteen countries.
In Russia's history, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are the core, and these three countries must not be too separate. Russia hopes that the three countries will be closer, while the United States and the West hope that they will be better and better.
In order to strengthen the pressure on Russia, the United States used NATO to expand eastward, constantly eroding Russia's sphere of influence inherited from the Soviet Union; NATO forces came to the edge of Ukraine, making Russia feel nervous and scared, and they were worried that they would split again.
Whether it is the Baltic Three Kingdoms joining NATO or the original Warsaw Pact countries joining NATO, they are not as stimulating to Russia as Belarus or Ukraine joining NATO; on the one hand, they directly border Russia, which is equivalent to NATO putting weapons on the gates of the Soviet Union; on the other hand, they have too deep entanglement in history, and they can be said to be a family at the beginning.
Belarus has always been good with Russia. No matter how the United States and the West win over, Belarus will never be a pawn for the United States and the West to suppress Russia.
Ukraine is different. Due to many historical grievances and the United States has deeply controlled Ukrainian politics, after Kuchima stepped down in 2005, Ukraine has gone further and further on the road to confront Russia.
But Ukraine's problem is that there is no unification of opinions in the country, which has caused Ukraine to remain at a disadvantage when confronting Russia and constantly lose its territory.
There are a large number of Russians in the three states of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv . These Russians have organized their own strength to strive for greater autonomy.
Crimean Peninsula is also the back garden of Russia, which is the base of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet. Most of them are officers and soldiers, families, military personnel, and scientific and technological personnel of the Russian Navy.
When the Ukrainian government and the three eastern states were tense, Russia placed strong military forces on the border on the grounds of its special interests in the three states and was always ready to enter Ukraine; at the same time, Crimea joined Russia in a referendum.
In order to prevent wars from occurring in Eastern Europe, German Chancellor Merkel brought the French president to mediate, and finally allowed Russia and Ukraine to reach the " New Minsk Agreement ".
The main contents of this agreement are:
2. Ukraine will formulate a new constitution before 2015, and permanent legislation agrees that Donetsk and Lugansk are "autonomous prefectures with special status in individual regions." After the signing of the "New Minsk Agreement", Russia achieved two great achievements:
On the one hand, they believed that this was a treaty of treason. Later, the signed president Poroshenko was also sued for "treason".
On the other hand, the US forces are very dissatisfied. Because Germany and France led the signing, the situation in Europe was stable; what was sacrificed was the geopolitical interests of the United States oppressing Russia.
So, after the signing of this treaty, Ukraine has not been clamoring for a day. With the support of the United States, they constantly demanded the abolition of this agreement. At the same time, the Ukrainian government forces continued to attack the armed forces of the Donetsk and Luhansk prefectures.
Ukraine also took the opportunity to continue to demand to join NATO, which happened to be the "NATO eastward expansion" that the United States expected and the "strategic oppression" that Russia hated.
contradictions are getting deeper and deeper. Ukraine not only wants to "join NATO" and abolish the "New Minsk Agreement", but also wants to take back Crimea. Russia demands that the "Neominsk Agreement" must be respected and that the Crimean Peninsula will always belong to Russia.
By early 2022, Ukraine's attack on Donetsk and Lugansk prefectures became more intense. The signs of "NATO absorbing Ukraine" were very obvious, and the "New Minsk Agreement" had already been in name only.
reality made Russia realize that no matter what, Ukraine will join NATO; it is only a matter of time before Ukraine becomes a NATO country.
Facing the problem, Russia attacked in the "Russian way". On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine.
This "action" is actually to drive Ukrainian military forces from the east to the west, and use force to maintain the "individual status" of the east; to make these four states a security barrier for Russia.
The war has been fought until now, and Western countries support Ukraine's counterattack, making Russia's conventional forces difficult. At this time, Russia used its ultimate move: using a referendum to merge the four states of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zabrose, and Khlsson .
The four states became Russian territory, and the Crimean Peninsula was connected with Russia to become one, which is exactly what Putin planned to be a "powerful Russia". Although it is not as large as that of , Katerina the Great when , it is already hundreds of times stronger than when the Soviet Union collapsed.
Ukraine wants to join NATO, which is stipulated in the Constitution
Ukraine wants to join NATO, which is a very instinctive consideration. Because in history, Ukraine has never been safe for a day: when Poland was strong, Ukraine was a colony of Poland; when Tsarist Russia was strong, Ukraine was a vassal of Russia.
The Soviet Union collapsed and Ukraine suddenly became independent. This is a huge challenge for Ukraine, which has never had the experience of establishing an independent country. There is also a powerful and aggressive Russia next to it, and Ukraine has no sense of security at all.
The United States also grasped the mentality of Ukrainians. Using "joining NATO" as bait, using oligarchs to control Ukraine's economic lifeline, and simply grasp Ukraine in its own hands.
In December 2014, Ukraine revised its law and gave up its non-aligned status. This is a legal preparation for joining NATO in the future; in February 2019, the Ukrainian Parliament
amended the constitution and incorporated the policy of joining EU and NATO into the constitution.Ukraine amended the constitution and wrote joining NATO into the constitution
wrote "joining NATO" into the constitution. This is a huge stimulus, allowing Russia to completely abandon its fantasies. Because this shows that no matter who becomes Ukrainian president , he will use "joining NATO" as the basic policy of foreign policy, otherwise it will be " unconstitutional ".
In fact, Ukraine is basically controlled by the United States. Cutting sausages bit by bit and pushing the situation to the brink of crisis has always been the way the United States controls the geopolitical situation, and they are the same in East Asia.
As a party, Ukraine has no way to do anything. Even if they want to get along well with Russia, they cannot do it because they are already tied to the American chariot.
has to destroy its own security in order to "security", which is the tragic result of small countries intervening in the game between big countries. Now, Ukraine not only cannot take back Crimea, but also lost four wealthy states in the east.
When Russia signed a decree to announce the "the four eastern Ukrainian states were incorporated into Russia", Ukrainian President Zelensky also signed the "application document for Ukraine to join NATO", completing the last step in Ukrainian domestic "Ukraine to join NATO".
The positions of various countries in the "Russia-Ukraine War"
The positions of various countries in the world towards the "Russia-Ukraine War" are different, and there are not many countries that are really anxious.
The countries that have vital interests in this war, except for Russia and Ukraine, are only the United States, Britain and Europe, and their positions are also changing.
The United States has four purposes for provoking the "Russia-Ukraine War":
Now, the US's goal is only half achieved.
The third goal to achieve, we must keep the war and keep Russia bleeding and consumed in the war.
But the current situation has changed, making the hope of the United States fail. Obviously, Ukraine cannot fight without external support; and with the bombing of the "North Stream Pipeline", Germany no longer wants to provide assistance. The last purpose of
is difficult for the United States to achieve because the major powers handle it very carefully and fairly. Putin said that "understand the position of the major powers."
Europe is already tired, they really don’t want to support Ukraine anymore, especially Germany. They all decided: no longer assist Ukraine.
These are all because the United States has done too much. The United States provoked a war on its own, causing heavy losses to Europe; the United States was still " hike rate " at this time, causing the euro to depreciate seriously and making the European economy worse. After the "North Stream Pipeline" was bombed, Germany, which strongly relies on this pipeline, was even more pitiful: the economy was damaged and it was not possible to keep warm in winter.
Germans are notoriously cautious and do not say unfounded words, but 94% of Germans believe that the United States did it.
All these show that Europe has different views on the United States. In their eyes, the image and position of the United States are "selfish" and "disregarding Europe's life and death".
Changes in the situation and changes in Europeans' understanding determine that their position on the "Russia-Ukraine War" has changed. They don't want the conflict to have any greater consequences.
The UK's position is nothing to say. They have always been like this: whoever is stronger in the European continent will attack whoever it is.
When Napoleon was powerful, Britain regarded Napoleon as a beast and regarded the Tsar who defeated Napoleon Alexander I as the "savior".
Alexander I, who was respected by Britain as the "savior"
After Tsarist Russia became the "European gendarmerie", Britain regarded Tsar Russia as a European robber, contacted Austro-Hungarian Empire targeted Tsar Russia everywhere, and defeated Tsar Nicholas I in Crimean War to commit suicide.
This is determined by the UK's strategy. They want Europe to have no strong power, so that the UK can influence Europe to the greatest extent, " offshore checks and balances ".
Therefore, the UK's position has not changed. They hope that the war will drag down Russia. They try their best to deceive other European countries to support Ukraine and let Ukraine persist in fighting.
"North Stream Pipeline" was bombed, and the possible development of the situation was "in a thought".
"Russia-Ukraine War" had no result, in fact, no one could mediate, because neither side would listen and the United States would not be allowed.
How the future situation will develop depends on what countries can get.
Now, Russia has obtained the four prefectures of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zabrose and Khlsong, and is connected with Crimea, so Russia is willing to stop and talk, and their official statement has also made such a statement.
Ukraine is relatively in decline and has lost its territory. The only gain is to sign a document waiting for others to agree: Ukraine's application to join NATO.
In fact, without this war, it would be difficult for Ukraine to submit this "official application" because it was "seeking trouble". Now, they have proposed it, which is a strategic step forward.
The United States actually wants to keep the war going. Weakening Russia and making Russia no longer a threat to the United States is the lowest strategic goal the United States wants to achieve.
Therefore, there are about three possibilities in the future.
1. With the mediation of other countries, both Russia and Ukraine stopped : Russia does not attack other parts of Ukraine, and Ukraine does not attack Donetsk, Luhansk, Zabrose, Khlsson, and Crimea.
As for what to do with these territories, let’s talk slowly. It is impossible for Ukraine to go back; and Ukraine has always demanded to join NATO, and after these places were incorporated into Russia, this matter was not the most concerned thing Russia has paid.
2. Continue to fight, but don’t fight hard, and only limit the war to a certain range. This is what the United States hopes most, because if it continues, the Russian economy will become fragile under the extreme restrictions and sanctions of the United States and the West, and they will not pose a threat to the United States.
But Ukraine is definitely not a match for Russia when fighting a conventional war without Western aid; if it is not done well, they will lose more places, such as Kharkov, which is not very stable.
Germany has shown no longer aid to Ukraine, Germany is the leader in Europe, and their actions are iconic in Europe. Therefore, it is highly likely that Ukraine will not receive European aid in the future.
Ukraine can fight with the assistance of the United States alone, but it will be miserable in the end, so Ukraine itself also retreated a little.
3. Fighting hard, the war suddenly became fierce. In this case of , even with Western aid, Ukraine alone cannot do it; instead, NATO must intervene, just like the early "Ukrainian counterattack", NATO actually intervened deeply.
If NATO intervenes, Russia will be very difficult in the future, and the independent "Four Eastern Ukraine Prefectures" may be lost. But Putin had long said: Russia's territory is threatened and he will use all measures.
"All measures" refer to " nuclear weapon ", which is the only place where Russia has an advantage; and the United States also said: If Russia uses the tactical nuclear weapon , it will face serious consequences. What are the "serious consequences" of
? It is said that the United States has plans to "take preemptive action" before Russia uses "tactical nuclear weapons", and the United States also plans to use "decapitation operations".
What is this situation? It’s “ World War ”!
Ukrainian President Zelensky also said: He is willing to negotiate with the Russian president, but not Putin.
is a bit strange, as if Americans are hinting at something.
In short, everything is "unresolved heaven", everything is "in a thought".
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