Author: Shijiangyue
According to "Russia Today" and Russian Satellite News Agency, Russian President Putin signed a decree on September 30 local time, recognizing the four states, including Khlsong and Zaporoze , as "independent" areas in Ukraine, and allowing them to join Russian territory. These decrees will come into effect immediately.
undoubtedly, Moscow's action was expected by many people, but it is hard to say how much impact it will have on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the future. The United States and the West have once again stated that they will not recognize the result of this "referendum to Russia".
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken criticized Russia for "the referendum on the annexation of Ukrainian occupied areas is tantamount to a blatant plunder of Ukrainian territory." US President Biden said that the United States will "forever, forever, forever" not recognize the "referendum to Russia". I used three "forever" in a row.
Ukraine, Zelensky has stated that no matter what the result of the "referendum to Russia" is, the Ukrainian army will not stop in the counterattack in the east and south. He called on the U.S. and Western countries to provide Ukraine with more heavy weapons and ammunition on the ground. Blinken also said that the United States will continue to fully support Ukraine.
On the 29th, the US Department of Defense announced a new batch of military aid worth $1.1 billion, providing more weapons and equipment to Ukraine. Pentagon claims that the purpose of 's military aid is to strengthen Ukraine's medium- and long-term military defense capabilities. This batch of new weapons assistance mainly includes the "Haimas" multi-barrel rocket launcher system and supporting ammunition, drone counter system, radar and armored vehicles.
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began on February 24, the amount of US military aid to Ukraine has reached US$16.2 billion.
From the current battlefield, The counterattack of the Ukrainian army has already gained a great advantage in Chongliman. Once this place is taken back by the Ukrainian army, it will directly threaten the defense line established by the Russian army and the pro-Russian armed forces in eastern Ukraine, which is not good news for the Russian side.
And if the Ukrainian army takes the bonus, morale on the battlefield will be boosted again. If the West can keep up with the weapons support of Ukraine, it will face continuous pressure for Russia. After all, the Ukrainian militia has been exhausted in the past six months. It is still unknown whether the new source of troops can be sent to the battlefield as soon as possible after Russia mobilizes some of its military.
Russian officials, from President Putin to Defense Minister Shoi, the capital of Gudu, stated that retired personnel sent to the battlefield must undergo sufficient training. In this way, time may not be completed in two weeks. Under such circumstances, early October was a critical period for both Russia and Ukraine.
Russia is also facing pressure in external public opinion. Because after the "referendum to Russia" was held, the UN Secretary-General Guterres issued a statement on September 29 saying that Russia's behavior of including some parts of Ukraine in its territory has no status in the modern world.
Guterres also added: "Any decision of Russia to continue to move in this direction will further endanger the prospect of peace. It will extend the huge impact on the global economy, especially the adverse effects on , developing countries in , and hinder our ability to provide emergency assistance to Ukraine and other countries." Guterres warned Russia, "It is not too late to stay away from the abyss." ”
From the perspective of Europe's attitude towards Russia in the future, since the "North Stream" oil and gas pipeline was bombed under the sea, and there is currently no conclusive evidence to prove who did it. The US and European media pointed their finger at Russia, believing that this was a sabotage activity carried out by Russia using the submarine at a depth of dozens of meters below the sea, thus shaking Europe's throat in oil and gas transportation.
EU has also launched a new round of sanctions against Russia. This sanctions will further affect Russia's exports to the EU, which is expected to reduce Russia's revenue by another 7 billion euros. In addition, more export bans will be imposed on key military technologies such as aviation items, electronic components and specific chemical substances.
Overall, after Russia incorporated four Ukraine into its territory through the "referendum to Russia", there are several trends worth noting:
first. In order to prove itself and regain control of these four regions as soon as possible, the Ukrainian army will increase firepower to launch a counterattack. Including the Khlsong area on the southern front, Russian troops and pro-Russia armed forces will face greater pressure.
According to Russian News Agency and other media on September 30, the Ukrainian army had intensified its attack on Khlsong in the early morning of that day. The first deputy commander of the military and civil administrative agency in Khlsong was in charge of security affairs died in the Ukrainian army's attack. This shows that the Ukrainian army intends to achieve a counterattack on the Russian army in the east and south as soon as possible.
Second, after Russia's partial mobilization, how many veterans can be summoned to the Ukrainian battlefield is very critical. If Russia can successfully achieve the goal of recruiting 300,000 people and declare war on Ukraine, it is likely to bring a huge reversal to the entire conflict situation. Of course, the prerequisite is that the training of these retired personnel must be in place, and the Russian military must also be in place.
Third, the military assistance of European countries to Ukraine will continue, and of course the scale may gradually decrease, because with the arrival of winter, Europe will next invest more funds and energy in its own livelihood areas and economic improvement. If a large amount of resources are invested in Ukraine at this time, the one that may be lost will be its own regime.
Germany has stated that it will provide a batch of IRIS-T "middle-level air defense systems" in Ukraine in October, and its air defense capabilities are several times stronger than the air defense weapons previously provided to Ukraine by Europe. This medium-range surface-to-air defense system can intercept various air threats within a radius of 40 kilometers, including fighter and incoming missile , and has extremely high accuracy and is more reliable than Ukraine's existing Russian air defense system.
Germany will provide four sets of such "middle-level air defense systems" in the first batch, and hope to complete the deployment by the end of this year, and the rest will be completed early next year. Therefore, as long as Russia does not use tactical nuclear weapon , the tactical styles of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not change much. The key issue now depends on whether Russia can solve the problem of insufficient troops.
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