Chinese are counting the day of the conference with their fingers, and Americans are also thinking about the midterm election voting day. Now there are only about 50 days left. There will be big things in the United States in 50 days.
In 2012, as a political observer, Tencent paid me to wander around the United States and observe the situation of the US election. Then, in that so-called international media, I debated the Sino-US political system with Yang Mouli, Gong Mouxia, Hu Mouping, and Ning Mouxin, who was struggling with the host Ning Mouxin. I opened my mouth to deal with four mouths, and the studio was quarreled and smoked, and the live broadcast was broadcast for 60 minutes. Of course, no one can convince anyone. Four famous American political speakers say that the United States' "simple majority decision" is not fulfilled, but now even the "simple majority decision" has become a problem.
Compared with ordinary Americans, Chinese people are more familiar with the United States, while Americans are not familiar with China. But even those who are more familiar with the United States have something that is not so familiar. There is something in the political system structure of the United States called the "midterm election".
Joseph Pulitzer , an iconic figure in the American mass newspapers, the founder of Pulitzer Prize and Columbia University School of Journalism
New York Times senior reporter, David Leonhardt, who won the Pulitzer News Prize, said that the United States is currently facing two major democratic threats: one is the turbulent refusal to accept the defeat campaign within Republican , and he pointed directly at Trump ; the other is that national policy makers are increasingly deviating from public opinion and bringing Biden .
This is the rhythm of knocking two old men overturning one stone. These two old men cannot be understood as two natural persons. These two old men are representative figures of bipartisan politics in the United States. The winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Journalism wrote an article in the New York Times, denying the political forces on and off the US.
From left to right, in turn: Charles Giteo, he was a down-and-out lawyer in Chicago , a staunch supporter of the "dirty", he assassinated the 20th President James Abram Garfield ; Leon Joelgos (?-1901), a Polish-American citizen and anarchist, he killed the 25th President of the United States William McKinley ; Lee Harvey Oswald (October 18, 1939 - November 24, 1963), assassinating the murderer of former US President Kennedy , the criminal of the assassination of Kennedy, planned and committed a major crime of brutal killing former US President Kennedy on November 22, 1963. Two days later, he was shot dead by Jack Ruby , and died at the age of 24; John Wilkes Booth (John Wilkes Booth, May 10, 1838 - April 26, 1865), was an American drama actor. On April 14, 1865, he assassinated President Lincoln .
article pointed out that from the Great Depression, the Cold War confrontation, to the 1960s and 1970s, which were full of assassinations, riots, defeats and scandals, although the United States was deeply involved in political turmoil in the past, it still adhered to the basic momentum of democracy - those who received more votes won and formed a cabinet to solve the problems faced by the country.
Now the United States is in a situation where there is almost no historical precedent to follow - the so-called American democracy is facing two clear threats, and the United States' governance philosophy has faced the most severe challenges for decades.
After reading this, I have to stop and slap for a while, and give the frank praise to the veteran commentator of the New York Times.
The electoral politics of the United States, on the surface, shows people a "simple majority decision".
, not to mention "one dollar, one vote", not to mention the public bribery in electoral politics, not to mention how senior bosses manipulate elections in the past history of the United States, nor to say how many tricks were there when political parties elect candidates, let's regard American politics as a transparent political process they advocated. In the past, the United States basically respected the "majority decision".
Although when it is never out, or after it is decided, it is dissatisfied, disliked, and intolerable, and killed the presidential boy by assassination, Ronald Reagan , John Kennedy , Franklin Roosevelt , Abraham Lincoln , Harry Truman, Gerald Ford , Andrew Jackson , William McKinley, George Walker Bush , James Abram Garfield...
But in general, it is decent on the surface. Now that's over, Barbie is Q, and you can't even do such a superficial article.
Lienhardt pointed out that the first democratic threat in the United States is the rising movement within the Republican Party that refuses to accept defeat. The most clear manifestation of the movement is the riot in the US Capitol Hill, and it has continued since then. Its participants do not rule out that they will overturn the election results in 2024 or later.
Please note this sentence. The election results in 2024 or later may still appear in the Capitol Hill movement. Oh my God, what should the United States do? This thing is like a quarrel between two people. The more they fight, the more they say it, they flirt with each other and encourage each other: What are you looking at? What should I do when I see you? If you dare to move a knife, I dare to take scissors, if you dare to move a stone, I dare to swing a stick... The Capitol Hill movement will only be even more surging, because no one will accept the other.
Monk, a political scientist at Hopkins University in the United States, said that for the first time in American history, a possibility that a legally elected president cannot take office. The unit has chosen a top leader and you don’t let someone enter the office. What’s going on? Do you still remember the scene of the American man who broke into Pelosi's office on Capitol Hill, swaying and rolling on Pelosi's office chair?
If the first threat is still an black swan , the second threat is the gray rhino. The power in the United States who formulate government policies are gradually disconnected from public opinion. The U.S. Supreme Court Recent series of decisions that deviate from public opinion highlight this disconnection. Although the Democrats have won seven popular votes in the past eight presidential elections, most justices are nominated by Republican presidents in the Supreme Court that shapes American politics in the years or even decades.
Other situations that are out of touch with public opinion, including in the past four US presidents, 2 people lost the popular vote but still entered the White House . The Senate, which represents most Americans, was blocked by the abuse of lengthy debates, and the House of Representatives designed by the founders of the United States, which should best reflect public opinion due to the division of constituencies.
Steven Levitsky, a professor of government at Harvard University, said that the United States is definitely the most anti-"major democracy" country in the world.
If this sentence is said by Sima Nan , it must be said that this is opposing the United States and demonizing the United States, but this is a factual judgment made by American university professors on the current situation in the United States. Isn’t this saying that the United States is an anti-democratic country? And it is the most anti-democratic country in the world.
American experts asserted that in the next 10 years, they will be shrouded in the situation of major democratic crisis. Rivesky said that although it is not clear how the crisis will emerge, it will come to the door.
American expert think tanks are also as unreliable as some Chinese expert think tanks. They came up with a bad idea: Don’t Trumps not admit the election results? Let’s simply establish a new circle of friends, a wide range of ideological alliances that isolate those who deny election results. Everyone fully agrees with this statement, believing that it is widely feasible and defeats Trump’s old boys in one fell swoop.
This is of course the whimsical thing of the Democrats. The difficulty is that not many Republicans are willing to join this alliance. What is the difference between saying it or not?
The United States has fallen into the worst inflation in 40 years, and domestic politics has reached such a suffocation. The vote after 50 days will determine everything. It is not difficult for everyone to understand why Biden must do something particularly eye-catching in diplomacy but is likely to harm the long-term interests of the United States.
(September 19, 2022, written at No. 8, Nanluoguxiang, Dongcheng District, Beijing)
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