Xinhua News Agency, Brasilia, September 30 (Reporter Bian Zhuodan)Brazil Presidential election will be held on October 2. The left-wing Labor Party candidate, former president Lula and the current president who runs as a candidate for the Liberal Party, led the poll rankings. At present, the first round of voting has entered the sprint stage. We strive to swing voters, seek "strategic voting" among voters in the middle camp, and increase the opposition rate of the other party, becoming the three most fierce competition points for the two sides.
On September 21, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, staff participated in the sealing of the general election electronic ballot box. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Tiancong
versus swing voters
In the latest poll released by Brazilian consulting agencies Welfare Poll, Ipek and Quaest, 17%, 12%, and 29% of voters said that they have not yet determined their voting intentions. These swing voters have a more concentrated group of women and some of the lower education and lower income groups. Since mid-September, Lula and Bolsonaro have made efforts almost at the same time to win over these voters.
Lula recently asked his supporters to convince swing voters around him “with a sense of responsibility to change the country.” He showed goodwill to swing voters during his September 17 campaign, saying that the country needs to respect and protect the rights of all people, regardless of gender, race or social class. He also frequently shouted to swing voters. For example, he told the female group on September 14: "It's not that there is a great woman behind a great man, but that there is a great woman by his side." At the same time, he also launched a series of social welfare policies to win the support of low-income groups.
According to the Brazilian presidential election rules, if a candidate receives more than half of the votes in the first round of voting, he will be directly elected, otherwise the two who receive the most votes will decide the winner in the second round of voting. Local media analysts pointed out that the left-wing camp was originally more advantageous among women, low-education and low-income groups, but now these groups are swaying in voting intentions, which may affect the election strategy of Lula's team in the first round of the victory or defeat.
On September 25, Brazilian presidential candidate Lula (right) greeted supporters at a campaign rally held in Rio de Janeiro . Photo by Wang Tiancong, Xinhua News Agency reporter
"Strategic Voting"
For the left and right camps, supporters of the middle camp are more sensitive to political trends and election propaganda, and their "strategic Voting" has an uninjustable value. The so-called "strategic voting" refers to the election where more than two candidates participate, if voters think that the candidate they support does not have a chance to win, they strategically choose to vote for other candidates to prevent their most hated candidate from being elected.
In mid-September, Lula's campaign called on middle camp supporters to support Lula with a "strategic vote" in the first round of the election, opposing Bolsonaro. But Antonio Lavareda, chairman of the scientific committee of the Brazilian Institute of Social, Political and Economics, pointed out that the move will trigger a "main victim" of "strategic votes", namely strong reactions from central party Democratic Labor candidate Siro Gomez and Brazilian Democratic Movement candidate Simone Tebet.
In fact, both Gomez and Tebet fought back against the "strategic voting" propaganda offensive of Lula's team, and Tebet even directly denounced that "strategic voting" was "disrespect for the Brazilian people." Lavareda believes that compared with Bolsonaro's direct attack, Gomez and Tebert's counterattack "has more harm to Lula's image."
On July 24, Brazilian President Bolsonaro spoke at the Liberal Party Congress held in Rio de Janeiro. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Tiancong
raising the opponent's opposition rate
qaester's latest poll released in mid-September showed that voters' opposition rate against Lula has risen from 40% in the same period last year to 47%, while Bolsonaro's opposition rate has dropped from 62% to 52%. The gap in opposition between the two narrowed from 22 percentage points to 5 percentage points.
opposition rate reflects the degree of disacceptance of voters to candidates. Candidates with high opposition rates have difficulty winning directly in the first round of votes.Political commentator of Brazil's Reading Weekly believes that behind Lula's team's hope for direct victory in the first round is the concern that anti-Labor Party forces will unite in the second round of voting. Claudio Coto, a political scientist at the Vagas Foundation in Brazil, said that Lula currently has more than 40% approval rating in most polls. Bolsonaro's top priority is to pull Golula's opposition rate and prevent Lula from winning directly in the first round of votes.
Some Brazilian media and political observers believe that the fierce confrontation around the above three major competition points shows that the main presidential candidates attach great importance to the first round of voting. Even if they cannot achieve their contributions, they must at least win the lead, and win more support and create greater momentum for the second round of voting.
According to the poll results recently released by several Brazilian consulting agencies, from the overall situation, Lula and Bolsonaro in the left and right wing camps are still leading significantly, while Gomez and Tebert in the middle camps performed well in the election debate, but their support ratings did not exceed 10%. However, the support ratings of the two leading the way vary greatly among different poll results, and the situation and final outcome of the Brazilian election are still full of suspense.
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