Russia was "deliberately destroyed" at three unprecedented places in the Nord Stream gas pipeline in Baltic Sea , making Europe, which was already famined, even more panicked. EU has called for an investigation into this. Who may be the mastermind?
The crisis of "defying gas" in Europe is becoming more and more serious, which is the clearest signal so far. Europe will survive this winter without the large amount of natural gas transport from Russia. This will be the coldest winter in Europe.
Explosion leaks at 3 Nordic pipelines
The second time is equivalent to more than 100 kilograms of explosives
The Denmark Ministry of Defense said on the 27th that there were three natural gas leaks in the Baltic Sea of " Nordic-1" and " Nordic-2". There are 2 "North Stream-1" and 1 "North Stream-2", which occur in the northeast and southeast of , Bornholm Island, respectively. A large amount of gas floated out of the seabed one after another, forming three large bubbles. The largest one formed a ripples with a diameter of more than 1 kilometer on the surface, and the minimum diameter was about 200 meters.
video footage shows that a large amount of gas constantly floats out of the seabed, and a large number of white ripples suddenly appeared on the azure sea surface.
Danish Ministry of Defense said it is currently working to deal with the problem of leaks in the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, and frigate and pollution control ship are heading to the restricted area for water quality monitoring.
Danish and Swedish seismologists recorded two strong explosions in the pipeline leak area, the second of which was equivalent to more than 100 kilograms of explosives, and the explosion occurred in water rather than under the sea.
The head of the Danish Energy Agency said that the leakage scale is very large and it may take a week to stop the natural gas emissions from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The sea is filled with methane , which means the risk of explosions in the area is increasing.
The focus of the energy dispute between Russia and Europe
"European Energy Artery"
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline, as the "European Energy Artery", has attracted much attention. "North Stream-1" and "North Stream-2" are two parallel natural gas pipelines with a total length of more than 1,000 kilometers. They arrive from Russia through , Finland, , Sweden, and Denmark to Germany.
"Northern Stream-1" was officially opened in November 2011. It is the largest natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, with an annual gas transmission of 55 billion cubic meters. In the past two years, the pipeline has increased its air extraction volume. In 2021, the gas transmission volume reached 59.2 billion cubic meters. "Beixi-2" is the second dual pipeline of the same size and will be completed in 2021. However, after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out on February 24 this year, Germany refused to authorize the operation of the pipeline.
According to calculations, if the "North Stream-1" and "North Stream-2" pipelines operate at the same time, they will be able to transport 110 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe every year, which is equivalent to more than 25% of the annual consumption of all EU countries.
Denmark and Sweden determined that human damage
The US CIA warned a few weeks ago that it would be attacked
The Nord Stream pipeline exploded and leaked 3 times in a day. Major media used the "mysterious leak" to describe this accident that was not yet clear. Some media quoted the late British writer Fleming as saying, "One is accidental, the second is coincidence, and the third is an enemy's action."
The Denmark and Swedish governments held press conferences on the evening of the 27th and said that after investigation, they believed that the leak was caused by human damage. Data monitored by the Swedish National Earthquake Center confirmed that underwater explosions occurred before the pipeline leaked.
Danish Prime Minister Frazier Rixson said on the evening of the 27th that according to the comprehensive evaluation of relevant Danish agencies, the leakage of the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline was caused by "deliberate behavior" and could not be the result of an accident.
EU Commission President von der Leyen said: "The leakage is due to human damage and the strongest response is to any intentional damage to Europe's energy infrastructure." She urged to promote investigations to fully understand the incident and its causes.
According to Reuters , the German government received a warning from US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) a few weeks ago, indicating that the two Nord Stream pipelines may be subject to targeted attacks.How to create 3 leaks in one day? It is speculated that this is a carefully planned action, or a disguised merchant ship first dropped mines in the nearby waters and detonated several days later, which will be the subject of future investigations.
affects geometry
gas shortage has the greatest impact on Germany, which may exceed the 2009 financial tsunami
The cold winter is approaching, and the bad news of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline has undoubtedly brought another heavy blow to European energy. A full-scale recession seems unavoidable. Not only ordinary families, from chemical factories, steel factories to automobile factories, are worried about the soaring energy bills in winter.
According to BBC, European natural gas prices rose by 22% on the 27th, which means that the economic impact of the European economy is rising rapidly, and the risk of economic recession may be even worse than the financial tsunami in 2009, among which Germany, the largest economy in Europe, was hit the most.
"Wall Street Journal " also warned that the European energy industry may usher in a "Lehman moment". Recently, European governments have allocated huge sums of funds to rescue the industry. Germany announced last week that it would invest about $8 billion in capital to increase capital and nationalize natural gas giant Uniper. It is reported that the energy storm facing Europe is somewhat similar to the financial crisis in 2008. After the leakage of the Nord Stream pipeline in
, Germany said that Germany's natural gas reserves are now about 91%, and there will be no impact in the short term. Analysts said that Germany's total natural gas storage is only 20.7 billion cubic meters, which can only barely be enough for civilian heating. Therefore, Germany has been reducing industrial gas in recent months, resulting in a large number of factories shutting down production and reducing production, and the factories have suffered serious losses.
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Deep analysis
United States? Russia? Polish ?
Suspicion 1: US
US Navy detachment is nearby Former Polish minister: Thank you, US
At present, although the United States, Russia and most European countries have reserved their opinions on this incident, former Polish minister and member of the European Parliament Sikorsky does not seem to have such concerns.
Sikorsky posted a photo of a large-scale natural gas leak in the Baltic waters on social media Twitter on social media 2, and wrote "Thank you, the United States".
Russia's first deputy representative to United Nations Polyansky tweeted: "Thanks Sikorsky for clearly clarifying who supports this terrorist attack on civil infrastructure behind the scenes!"
In the past few years, the United States has been pressuring Germany and other European countries to stop the construction of the "North Stream-2" pipeline, while selling the more expensive US liquefied natural gas to Europe.
In February this year, US President Biden predicted that it would end the Nord Stream pipeline. The reporter asked: "But, this project is under Germany's control, how can you do this?" Biden said: "I promise you that we will be able to do this."
In addition, public intelligence information also shows that there is a US Navy detachment 30 kilometers away from the Nord Stream pipeline at the scene of the incident, showing that the pipeline blasting is full of doubts.
The U.S. Navy Ship Expeditionary Team has been conducting exercise missions in the Baltic Sea since September and announced on the 27th that it had completed its mission in the Baltic Sea. In June this year, the 8th Explosive Disposal Mobile Team of the U.S. Anti-Mine Force carried out underwater blasting training and exercises near the Denmark incident site.
According to global ship dynamic data, on the day of the incident, the US attack ship was 30 kilometers away from the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline damage site and 50 kilometers away from the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline.
According to data from the global flight real-time flight data platform, the US Seahawk helicopter had repeatedly flew along the current Nord Stream 2 blasting leakage site.
In response to this, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken 27 said: "Preliminary report shows that the leakage of the 'North Stream' natural gas pipeline may be the result of an attack or some kind of damage, but these are all preliminary reports. We have not confirmed that if the natural gas leakage on the Nord Stream pipeline was caused by an attack or damage, then this result will not be beneficial to anyone's interests. In my opinion, the leakage will not have a significant impact on the energy supply in Europe, and the United States is working to resolve the short-term and long-term energy security issues in Europe."
suspicion 2: Russia
Ukrainian accused Russia of "terrorist attacks" Russia calls for investigations
In the context of the energy crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the leak of two Russian pipelines under the Baltic Sea caused panic in Europe. European officials believe this is a deliberate act of sabotage, while Kremlin calls for an investigation into the matter.
Ukrainian President senior adviser Podoriak directly accused Russia of planning the "terrorist attack" and said that the move is equivalent to an "aggression" of the EU, with the intention of destroying the EU. The economy is stable and creates energy panic before the winter arrives.
Russian President's press secretary Peskov responded that the assertion about Russia's alleged involvement in the "North Stream" pipeline accident is stupid and absurd. The accident has a serious consequence for the Russian side, because both pipelines are full of expensive natural gas, and half of which are planned to be used to ensure balanced domestic consumption. Peskov also said that the Russian Gas Company is the owner of the "North Stream" pipeline and should participate in the relevant investigation. He said: "It is obvious that without the participation of the Russian Gas, the investigation cannot be carried out. These pipes are not unowned. "
analyzed that 51% of the equity of "North Stream-1" is held by Gazprom, while "North Stream-2" is held by a subsidiary of Swiss . The explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline will also cause serious losses to Russia. The waters of the Baltic Sea are not that deep, and most of them rarely exceed 100 meters. It is difficult for submarine to hide there to launch torpedo , and it is difficult for no one to not be discovered. At present, no submarine operation has been mentioned. And if Russian submarines are to be allowed to perform this destructive mission, it may be more practical to let them go to the Atlantic to cut off the communication cables connecting Europe and the United States.
suspect 3: Polish
get rid of its dependence on Russian gas It is not ruled out that "unloading the mill and killing donkeys" is
However, on Western social media, many people analyzed that Poland's suspicion cannot be ruled out. The explosion site is not too far from Poland, and Poland is the most anti-Russian country in Eastern Europe. Shortly after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia cut off the supply of Poland's natural gas. In addition, Poland's new natural gas pipeline was launched, getting rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas, and Poland cannot rule out that "unloading the mill and killing donkeys" is not ruled out. On the same day that the Nordic stream pipeline leaked, Poland, Norway and Denmark held a new Baltic natural gas pipeline launch ceremony with EU officials, which is scheduled to be officially opened on October 1, when the pipeline will transport natural gas from Norway's natural gas fields through Denmark to Poland. The pipeline is about 900 kilometers long and is considered by the Polish government to be a major strategic project to get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas. The two countries of Czech and Slovak in southern Poland will also benefit.
However, Poland pointed its finger at Russia. The Polish Prime Minister said that the natural gas leak in the Nord Stream pipeline was a deliberate act of sabotage, which may indicate that the situation in Ukraine will escalate and enter a new stage.
In addition, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs also believes that the leakage points found in the Nord Stream pipeline may be provocative acts from Moscow. Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Puridachi also said that the possibility of such provocative acts is not ruled out. China Business News reporter Guo Ji compiled
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