There is still a potential war between China and India? We all know that in recent years, China-India relations cannot be said to have twists and turns, but it must be a roller coaster. In 2017, 2020, and 2022, the two sides had a large-scale conflict at the border, and each time it ended in a crushing defeat in India. This year's appearance is even more so. The Indian army, which has an absolute advantage in numbers, attempted to obstruct the demolition of illegal buildings by our border guards, but ended up with a fracture of limbs.
Of course, in addition to border friction, there is also a potential war outbreak between , that is, the water source issue.
purely from a geographical point of view, the Ganges Delta, the largest and most fertile land in India, depends on China's Yarlung Zangbo River. This river is called the Brahmaputra River by the Indians. It starts from China's Himalayas in the east and ends at the Bay of Bengal in the south and enters the sea. It is one of the highest altitude rivers in the world.
In 2010, China announced that it would open hydropower stations in the Yarlung Zangbo River to make full use of the hydropower resources of the river.
At that time, Indians jumped out and said that if you take a shot of this dam in China, you will want to cut off my water at that time, it will not take a minute to do it. But we also clarified at that time that said that it was building a hydropower station, not a dam, and it could not intercept this thing at all.
. In 2021, China Power Construction Group announced a larger-scale construction plan to build a 50-meter-high giant dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River. Its power generation capacity will be three times that of the existing Three Gorges Dam . At this time, the Indians came out again, saying that you are going to "weaponize" rivers and "bottleneck" the Indian economy.
In fact, if we simply look at India's several responses to the dam construction incident, it is easy to find that they only dare to "condemn" and oppose, and even dare not issue military threats. The reason for
is actually very simple. first, this is a major livelihood goal in China and it is easy to trigger China's nuclear counterattack. Second, it is the issue of attack capabilities. The Indian army is not equipped with any type of ground drilling ammunition now. The bombs of conventional warheads, missiles, , are almost tickling when hit. Moreover, because such giant dams are generally Gravity Dam , India's Riot 5 nuclear missiles are probably not able to be smashed.
So we can see that the US "Diplomatic" website has come out recently and said that it should not make a fuss. China should take the lead and establish an inclusive "watershed organization" to strengthen communication and reduce tensions. On the surface, it sounds better than singing, but in reality, every time it is because of India's unilateral actions, which undermined the long-term mutual trust between China and India. There is an old saying in China that there are only three things, but India is time and time again, endless.
The so-called "watershed organization" of the Americans seems to seek stability and cooperation, but in fact it is to put a "rule framework" on the waterway system in southern Tibet. At that time, Indians will have reason to sue China.
China-Iran relations have made new progress, and have broken the rumors of discord
. Just a few days ago, the Chinese leader visited Saudi Arabia and signed a series of cooperation agreements with the Gulf countries, with a total value of tens of billions of dollars. However, the content of the joint statement after the meeting directly annoyed Iranian . This article in the statement states that China supports the GCC to use peaceful means to resolve the differences between Datongbu, Xiaotongbu and Abu Musa . These three islands were originally under the jurisdiction of the United Kingdom. After the British withdrew, Iran sent troops to station them and achieved actual control. But most Arab countries agree that the ownership of the three islands should be handed over to the UAE.
So, at the first time, Iran summoned the Chinese ambassador and expressed strong dissatisfaction. This incident fermented quickly, attracting a lot of hype from Western media, such statements are everywhere.
However, what embarrassed them was that a few days after the "disaster incident", Chinese senior officials visited Tehran . Not only did the two sides not argued, they also signed a new cooperation agreement for oil and gas development, which can be said to have a loud slap in the face of Western media.
In fact, our country has always pursued the main diplomatic policy of not interfering in other countries' internal affairs, and has always adhered to the main tone of peace as the most important thing in national territorial disputes of concern to various countries. This is true in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and there will be no wavering on the "three islands" issue. Moreover, unlike the United States, which seeks intervention in global construction of bases, China's overseas military activities are all for maintaining world peace. It is even more nonsense that some Western countries advocate that they covet the territory of other countries.
If we look at it historically, China and Iran have not been short. In Silk Road , Persian Empire connects the East and the West together, and it is the predecessor of Iran. In modern times, Iran, like China, has been subjected to double oppression by foreign forces and overseas forces, and eventually achieved national and national independence in the 1970s. It was subsequently subjected to long-term sanctions from Western countries led by the United States. In a sense, there is indeed a large number of common languages between the two countries. After entering 2010, through joining the WTO and unremitting efforts, China has achieved economic takeoff, its comprehensive national strength has been greatly improved, and its national interests are no longer limited to one acre of three parts of East Asia. Deepening its deployment in the Middle East is imperative. Therefore, in 2016, we signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Saudi , and this year we accepted Iran to join the SCO, rather than choosing one of two. This is a completely different "two-legged walk" from Americans.
China-Iran cooperation is a win-win situation, but the resistance is not small
However, if we look back at the country of Iran, it is actually quite special. On the one hand, due to long-term sanctions, a relatively complete industrial system was established, but on the other hand, it was also because of sanctions. Iran's system is probably lagging behind the times until now.
But China claims to be second in industry, but no one dares to be first. Even the gantry cranes made by the United States in super aircraft carrier have to be bought from China. So there is a complementary space. China needs Iran's oil and gas resources, and Iran needs China's industrial resources, and the two exchange them. Speaking of this, many people may think that is a bit of a loss when changing this way?
But the hero wants to tell you that oil and gas resources are non-renewable things, and as long as those industrial equipment have drawings and raw materials, we actually make a profit at this point.
Moreover, China and Iran have a common biggest opponent, that is the United States. In order to defend Persian Gulf , Iran has been very excited to build missiles in recent years. In the past few years, it also completed the cement aircraft carrier target shooting and tested the anti-ship ballistic missile . This scared the United States very much. But just like what the hero said before, although Iran can save up a weapon that can be used properly, it is far from being advanced, especially on the guidance system . This makes the two countries have a relatively strong common language in weapons research and development, because the needs are actually similar, and it is simply too simple to discuss cooperation.
But we cannot deny that there are actually certain obstacles in cooperation with Iran, that is, Iran's own arrogance. Iran, a country that claims to be an anti-American fighter, is easy to become arrogant and low-key if it holds some industry. There was a case before. The Iranians went to Russia to buy the new fighter . As a result, they asked for Su-30SM as soon as they opened their mouths. At that time, the Russian army did not have many of this thing. Russia also said that the Su-30SM is not allowed, and the Su-27M2 is okay, but Iran did not let it go. It is said that during the negotiations, the purchase quantity was cut to two, which can be said to be very stubborn. Now that Russia is in turn asking Iran for a "small motorcycle" may also aggravate this complex psychology. Iran must recognize its positioning, otherwise cooperation will be very difficult.
develops long-range attack weapons, Japan regards China as the "biggest challenge"
. On the other hand, according to reports from multiple media, Japanese cabinet made an important decision a few days ago and completed the launch of the new version of the National Security Strategy 3 document, and several of them are worthy of vigilance.
The first is in this "National Security Strategy". Japan officially confirmed that defines China's military trends as "an unprecedented major strategic challenge" . This is obviously a response to the "systemic challenge" raised by NATO in June this year. It was just to not overly stimulate China, and I played a text game. At the same time, they made a fuss about the Taiwan Strait issue, claiming that this is indispensable to the "peace" and "prosperity" of the international community.
In the " Defense Plan Outline " of substantial strength construction, Japan will increase military expenditure to 43 trillion yen in the five years starting from 2023. At the same time, in view of the so-called ballistic missile threat, Japan officially decided to develop long-range offensive weapons, develop a Type 88 anti-ship missile, emphasizing "counterattack capability against enemy bases."
After foreign media calculations, if all these measures are implemented, military expenditure will account for about 2% of GDP.
In fact, if we simply look at the development of long-range missile , we can draw a conclusion that is going to give up the policy of "defensive defense" and turn to a more aggressive military-building idea. We can also see the clues about the modification of the Izumo-class aircraft carrier. In the past twenty years, although Japan has obtained advanced equipment such as "Aegis" and "Standard 3", it is still essentially a defensive weapon. In addition to the restrictions imposed by the United States, the Self-Defense Force does not have the ability to attack.
But the situation is different now. You Japan said you should have the "counterattack ability" and use long-range weapons. If you remember correctly, there were some Japanese politicians in the past few months who said they wanted to "take preemptively". If these two remarks were combined together, you can come to a very magical conclusion: Japan wants to use Japan's "counterattack" missiles to take preemptively, completely removing the psychological burden of firing the first shot. It can only be said that the Japanese are worthy of being you.
In fact, among these defeated countries in World War II , Japan is the only country that has not been completely liquidated. The tablets of Class A war criminals are still provided at Yasukuni Shrine, and politicians go to worship ghosts every few years. They are also very self-aware of this, and under the framework of the current Japan-US alliance, the United States turns a blind eye, and the tendency of right-wing forces to raise their heads is becoming stronger.
, unlike what we have always thought, Japan actually knows what it has done, and refuses to admit it because it is afraid that after China's strength rises, it will ask him to settle the accounts at once. This kind of mentality is also found in many Western countries, and they are all afraid of "setting accounts". Therefore, there is the so-called "military threat". To build a special alliance and buy new weapons, there is the so-called "China's military challenge."
Japan has a big voice, but its strength is still a little short of
. But what we need to be clear is why the Self-Defense Force is called the Self-Defense Force, because it is an army that has been "castrated". Just like what the hero said before, the United States has stuck Japan's neck.
Japan's F15J, the gang of old machines that can lose parts, still do not have the ability to attack the ground. If you want to support, you can only hang iron bombs. Learn the Russian Aerospace Forces, or replicate the practices of the predecessors of World War II, and have a one-way assault. This is even more so in terms of armored power in
. The Japanese tank division is called the chariot division. There are only two in Japan, one is the 7th Division of Hokkaido , and the other is the capital division. There are only a hundred units in total. Just like this, you will be thrown into the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield and burned you in one day. But if you expand your army by four or five hundred units at once, the US special forces will smash the door of the ministers of Congress the next day. Giving up "specialized defense" does not mean that you have the ability to "attack out".
Therefore, Japan must find something that does not use the structure of the Massive Self-Defense Force and can attack, so there is the current "base counterattack missile".
But this thing is actually to "make the Japanese people believe that they are protected." Because the Type 88 missile itself is an subsonic platform, if you change the long-range weapon, the speed will only be slower. Use this thing to counterattack China, not to mention whether it can penetrate the radar air defense network on the southeast coast, just the sentry trained near the East China Sea can be stopped by you. To put it bluntly, the practical significance of this thing is basically equivalent to 0, and it is a "political weapon" that can only deceive oneself.
So, in general, Japan's defense plan revision this time has a threat to us, but it is very small, especially at Taiwan. If nothing happens, you can talk casually. Anyway, your mouth is on your face, but if the earth shakes, it will be hard to say whether the Japanese Self-Defense Force has the courage to come out and touch it. . After all, in ancient history, soldiers were fighting outside and were stolen from the rear. There is not a case where China's missile inventory is so large that Japan can always get a few.
But then again, Japan is China's neighbor, and this neighbor cannot escape no matter how hard it is. It is not wrong to say that China and Japan should make progress together, rather than crazy provoking China and quarrel on some issues urged by the United States. To be honest, it really doesn't make much sense for the Japanese to do this.
