Before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian War, Putin had confidence. His confidence came from energy, specifically oil and natural gas.
During the period when Merkel was in charge of Germany, Putin and Merkel got very close. Under Merkel's coordination, Europe and Russia got along well.
Under the promotion of Merkel, a gas pipeline, which is the "North Stream Pipeline", was built between Russia and Europe. It can deliver Russian natural gas directly to European countries.
In peacetime, this direct gas pipeline can provide great convenience for Europe. But once there is friction between the two sides, Russia can regard gas pipelines as Europe's weakness. So when building this pipeline, Merkel took a lot of pressure, and some even believed that Merkel betrayed Europe.
Russia is very happy to build gas pipelines, including economic considerations and strategic considerations.
Before Russia entered Ukraine this time, Putin made a full assessment that he could temporarily survive the difficult period of sanctions by Europe and the United States with his energy advantages and the US dollar reserves. As long as we pass the difficult period of sanctions, Russia can naturally take the Ukrainian region as its own and copy the way to seize Crimea .
The European side will indeed feel scared when facing the threat of being "dead". They are not afraid that the world will lack natural gas, but are afraid that they will go back and forth and disrupt the current development layout. So before the war started, Britain and France both advised Putin not to start a war, and Putin regarded their visit as showing weakness. After the war started, Europe did encounter a certain energy crisis in . International crude oil prices soared, breaking the highest level of $130 per barrel, constantly breaking the rise record.
Faced with the gradual rise in oil prices, corresponding demonstrations in Europe protesting the rise in oil prices and requiring the government to take corresponding measures. Russia was so happy when he saw this scene, thinking that it had stuck Europe's neck, and let it be controlled at will.
Faced with the threat of high oil prices and dying, Europe began to discuss countermeasures. In order to solve the natural gas problem, Europe purchased a large amount of natural gas from the United States and entered Europe by sea transportation. Now the major gas storage tanks in Europe are full. Although the cost has increased slightly, it has finally overcome the "drain" crisis.
has solved the natural gas problem, and then we must solve the crude oil price problem. To this end, European countries have formulated a "oil price limit" measure, limiting the upper limit of Russia's oil exports to US$60 per barrel. If this price exceeds this price, Russian crude oil exports will be banned.
In order to reach this agreement, European countries started negotiations for several months and finally reached an agreement on December 5.
Does Russia have to abide by the price limit agreement formulated by Europe? Yes, it must be followed.
Marine ships including crude oil must purchase insurance for the cargo and the ship itself before loading the cargo, otherwise ships are prohibited from docking at ports all over the world. The sanctions introduced by Europe this time are binding on 90% of shipping insurance companies around the world. This means that Russia must accept this price, otherwise it will not be able to complete oil exports.
This situation must have been beyond Russia's expectations. I originally wanted to use energy issues to control Europe and the United States, but now I have been repaired and I can only kill my teeth and swallow it.
Russia's situation also gave us great inspiration. Before economic globalization , war was just a competition between force. Whoever had more soldiers and powerful weapons had the right to speak. Nowadays, war is a comprehensive confrontation, and the competition of force is just one of the factors.
China's globalization is much deeper than Russia. If we face the same all-round sanctions, the bargaining chips and countermeasures in our hands are crucial. This is also the reason why war cannot be launched easily.
War is not the ultimate goal, it is just a means to safeguard one's own core interests. Only by working together to develop together are in common interests.
