Author of this article: Cuckoo
This article only represents the author's views and does not represent the position of this account
Russia has finally issued conditions for arbitrage negotiations, but considering that Russia lacks political mutual trust in NATO , it is still very difficult to get on the negotiating table! Regardless of negotiation or not, Russia is making greater preparations, especially the trend of Putin and on the front line, which means that the situation in Russia and Ukraine will soon show a new trend.
On the 6th local time, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said in an interview with the media that Russia will achieve the purpose of the special military operation and achieve the established goal is a prerequisite for Russia to start negotiations with Ukraine.
Russia's answer is not surprising, , but what is confusing is what kind of "purpose" is needed. After all, since the Russian army launched an attack in February, the "purpose" mentioned by Russia has changed many times, and it is rumored that Russia has started a new round of mobilization, which makes the prospect of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict unpredictable.
It is worth mentioning that at the beginning, the "Russia-Ukrainian conflict will be resolved through negotiation" was not Russians or Ukrainians, but Americans.
On December 5, US Secretary of State Blinken said in an interview that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will almost certainly end with diplomacy and negotiations, and a "fair and lasting" peace must be established. . Whether Blinken's words sound high-sounding, it ultimately reflects more obvious signs of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. Moreover, under the promotion of the United States, Ukraine's side has rejected negotiations with Russia at the beginning, and later put forward many unrealistic demands, and has now begun to deliver more realistic peace talks, and even began to focus on Ukraine's reconstruction issue, indicating that Ukraine is indeed getting closer to the preparation for negotiations. During this period, the United States even stopped the Polish missile incident from framed Russia.
But now, Russia does not seem to want to end the war so soon. According to Peskov's words, Russia agrees that "fair and lasting" peace should be reached, "but for the possibility of some kind of negotiation, we currently believe that does not exist, and we have said this many times" . Peskov also emphasized in particular: "The prerequisites for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are to achieve the established purpose of special military operations."
Obviously, Russia is very persistent in the negotiation conditions and has set an attitude that if the conditions cannot be obtained, it must continue to be promoted. What exactly is Russia's "establishment of the intended purpose of special military operations"?
In fact, the so-called "special military operation" about Russia, according to what they proposed when the war began in February, was to "protect people from being genocidal by the neo-Nazi regime of Ukraine, demilitarize and de-Nazi, and ultimately 'liberate' the Donbas region."
However, these three were constantly modified by Russia after the war started. On April 24, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in an interview with the media; "The Russian military's special military operations aim to end the rash expansion of the US and Western countries' reckless international routes, as well as the hegemony rules they formulated." On May 1, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in an interview with foreign media that the purpose of Russia's special military operations against Ukraine is "two major guarantees": First, to ensure the security of the people in eastern Ukraine and not be threatened by the militarization and Nazization of the Ukraine authorities; second, to ensure that there is no security threat to the Russian Federation in Ukraine. On June 1, a subordinate committee of the Russian Ministry of Defense said that the Russian army's "special military operation" had entered the third stage, namely, controlling Nikolayev's Prefecture , Odessa Prefecture and Kharkov's Prefecture . On June 14, Peskov also said: "The overall defense of the Donetsk Republic and the Lugansk Republic is the main purpose of the special military operation."
and so on are here again. On September 21, Russian President Putin said that the main purpose of Russia's special military operations has never changed. Wait until November 21, Peskov told the media that the goals of Russia's special military operations will be achieved, and the current government change in Ukraine is not the Russian goal... In the past few months, the goals of Russia's "special military operations" have become very vague, and there are different explanations in many Russian politicians. So far, it is difficult for the outside world to define what Russia's goal is, so we can only try to analyze. From the perspective of these statements, there should be two bottom lines of "special military operations". One is the Donbas region, and the other is to exclude Ukraine from NATO member states.
From this we can analyze what conditions can the Russian army accept the peace talks?
Most of the Donbas region is under the control of the Russian army, so whether it is possible to determine whether Ukraine is excluded from NATO has become one of the key factors. However, considering that Russia has announced the referendum of four places to Russia, we must first analyze whether Russia will give up the entire Khlsong and Zaporozen . First of all, consider the Khlsong area. In addition to the Russian withdrawal from Khlsong city, it is a sign of looseness. In addition, we can observe where Russia evacuated Khlsong's residents.
According to reports, when the Russian troops retreated in Khlsong area, most of the people who were willing to follow the Russian troops to retreat were evacuated to the Crimea area. In other words, in the direction of Khlsun, the border of Crimea is Russia's absolute bottom line. In addition, we have talked about the risks faced by the Russian army before. At the same time, Sulovigin changed the tactics, and the Russian army focused on the northern line. Zaporoze on the south side may not be within the bottom line of the Russian army, let alone abandoning Khlsong City and making Melitopol a "alone city".
Recently Putin personally inspected the Crimea region. At the same time, news came from Russia that Putin may inspect the "new territory" of the Donbas region at any time. It can be believed that Russia will at least not make concessions in Donbas' Luhansk and Donnesque. As for Khlsong and Zaporoze, we can also observe whether Putin will visit these two regions in person. Where Putin's inspection may mean where Russia's real bottom line lies.
However, this does not mean that Russia will easily give up Khlsun and Zaporoze on the left bank of the Dnieper River. After visiting the United States, Macron said in the media that he had begun to discuss what the "peace" after the Ukrainian conflict would look like after Ukrainian conflict, and NATO should prepare the final guarantee for Russia's security after the Ukrainian conflict is resolved. Russia then responded to Macron's proposal for security, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergeyryabukov said that "the negotiations can begin when they confirm that they are ready for some kind of wiser and more balanced dialogue on the interests." It can be seen that Russia is waiting for NATO to make concessions first, and this concession must be the core of the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO.
Therefore, we will depend on NATO's response next, but it is undoubtedly a slap in NATO's face to make NATO promise not to be included. This possibility is not high even if it exists, but the recent statement from the United States means that this extremely low possibility still exists.
At the same time, is precisely because of this low possibility that Russia will definitely be prepared to continue to fight. Russia is currently rumored that Russia plans to make a new round of mobilization. However, the actual situation is slightly different. The news comes from the Russian Ministry of Defense, which announced that 120,000 people will be recruited from November 1 to December 31. This batch of conscription is a regular recruitment and will not go to Ukraine and the four regions to fight.
But this also means that the Russian army can mobilize more other garrison troops to the front line, and the original vacancy can be filled by new recruits. Putin's inspection of Crimea and the news that he was preparing to inspect the Donbas region meant that two situations could occur. Either NATO really responded to the Ukraine issue, so that the purpose of Russia's so-called special military operations will be related to negotiations; or a war is about to begin until one side has to completely compromise with the other side, and under this situation there is no bottom line of negotiation.
