India seems to have always been blindly overconfident about its own development. Wanting to become a superpower of is the taste that several generations of Indian leaders shouted. When the Modi government came to a sharper head, it wanted to strive for "entertainment in the permanent" to drive international influence.
As another superpopular country in Asia, India is most passionate about compared with China, especially in terms of economy. Seeing that China's economy is not only the second largest in the world and is booming, India seems to have gained more confidence from it, because in India's view, it is also a huge population welfare like China.
For example, of the nearly 1.4 billion people in India, nearly 50% of the population is from the dividend population aged 25-64, with sufficient social labor and relatively cheap.
It is precisely because India currently has a huge amount of cheap labor that many international companies have built factories in India, driving the development of India's economy.
According to relevant data, India's total economic output in 2021 was US$308.58 billion, and grew by to 8.3% year-on-year, ranking sixth in the world. In the global economic ranking in the first half of this year, although India's total economic output ranking did not break through, it ranked first in the world with a growth rate of 8.4%.
In addition to India having great confidence in its own economic development, some international economic institutions are also very optimistic about the potential of the Indian economy. For example, the Morgan Stanley organization is a financial giant in the United States. Asia, the agency's chief economist of the institution, predicted that India's economic development will enter the fast lane in the next ten years, doubling on the basis of the total economic output exceeding US$3 trillion last year, and is expected to reach US$8.5 trillion.
And by 2034, about 12 years later, its GDP may be able to exceed US$11 trillion. In the next first stage of economic development, India's GDP will surpass Japan and Germany all the way, and may surpass Japan by 2027. The implication is that India will become the third place in the world in five years, second only to the United States and China.
. The reason why India has such high confidence in the future economic development is that in addition to the demographic dividend , it is also because India currently has many elite talents active in the world's business and political circles. Data shows that about 30% of the employed people without Silicon Valley are Indian, and nearly 15% of them hold senior executive positions.
In the political circle, last year, , who was elected vice president in the US election , is an Indian, and the newly appointed British Prime Minister , Sunak is also an Indian, but with these two points, India can be full of pride. Some Indian netizens even say that the British and American powers are ruled by Indians.
Indian elites are active in the international community for two sessions of political and business. For India, which has always liked to be at the international community, it means that they can gain more connections and development opportunities on the international stage, so they are more confident in their future development prospects.
Just like Modi said in his speech on the 75th anniversary of India's independence this year that it will take about 25 years to make India a developed country, that is, in 2047, the 100th year of India's independence. So the question is, will China, which is also an Asian country, feel pressured?
It is obviously unlikely that India's economic development will surpass China or put pressure on China. In terms of the total economic output of the two countries in 2021, India exceeded US$3 trillion, but my country exceeded US$17 trillion, nearly 6 times that of India.
India is too presumptuous about the future economic development. India is indeed similar to my country's national conditions in the early stages of modern economic development decades ago, that is, it can enjoy a huge demographic dividend and obtain a large amount of relatively cheap labor. This can not only promote the development of all walks of life in China in a short period of time, but also help make China a world OEM factory.
But India only sees dividends in its population, but it does not know that behind the huge population dividend, there is an employment problem that needs to be solved. It is difficult to solve this problem by relying on foreign capital’s domestic OEM factories, and it also requires the vigorous development of domestic enterprises and the provision of sufficient jobs.
A large amount of labor can indeed achieve good growth rates in the early stages of economic development, but gradually the growth rate will slow down or even remain unchanged in less than a few years. This is related to the economic value that a large number of cheap labor can generate. This is also a problem that my country has been working hard to break through in the past decade. It will raise the simple and repetitive manufacturing industry twenty or thirty years ago to another level. Only by realizing industrial transformation and upgrading can we achieve better development and further increase our economic strength.
In comparison, although India has a huge population like our country, it does not have a strong manufacturing level like China. China can make a great economic leap in just a few decades with its huge population, making India mistakenly believe that it can make its economy rise by relying on its population, catching up with Japan, and even forcing China.
After all, this is because India is too blind and confident. It may be possible to catch up with Japan and Germany, after all, Japan and Germany have no population advantage, and the economic growth rate of these two developed countries is already very low.
But if India wants to make China feel stressed, don’t forget that in the overconfident prophecy, India’s total economic output may exceed 10 trillion US dollars by the end of this century, while China has already exceeded 10 trillion trillion yuan.
Don’t forget that the reason why India’s economic growth rate ranks first in the world is based on its total economic output of 3 trillion yuan, while China’s economic growth rate is also based on 17 trillion yuan. The difference between the two is too great, so it is not very comparable.
