boots finally landed. EU reached an agreement on a complete ban on the sale of fuel vehicles from 2035. Although similar topics were often seen in the news a few years ago, today it was confirmed by European Council and the European Parliament, that is, the law has been formed in the EU, and all member states must abide by it.
On the surface, it is a test of the new energy transformation of car companies, but at a deeper level, this resolution is even a turning point to accelerate the collapse of the US dollar hegemony. This has freed China from its trembling oil imports every day. So today we will talk about how much impact the EU ban on selling fuel vehicles?
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Let’s first look at why the EU announced the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles at this time point. Of course, as we all know, at least on the surface, the EU’s ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is to save energy and reduce emissions, reduce carbon emissions, protect the environment, and ultimately achieve carbon neutrality with by 2050.
Let’s take a look at the current situation in various EU countries. High inflation, energy crisis , has made the people in the EU sweat again and again. The serious dependence on Russian oil has made EU countries feel uncomfortable every day. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in March, the No. 95 gasoline at the German gas station rose to 20 yuan per liter. It would cost nearly 1,000 yuan to fill a tank of oil. Faced with such a high oil price, many ordinary people can’t afford to drive cars.
German gas station
When putting the boots of banned fuel vehicles as soon as possible, letting automakers in EU countries reduce the production of fuel vehicles, and correspondingly reduce their energy dependence on Russia. This is indeed a huge push for the EU countries to reach this agreement at present.
But this also has its reaction force. As the birthplace of internal combustion engines, the EU has a very complete and advanced automobile manufacturing industry foundation in the world. The output value created by the automobile industry accounts for 7% of the entire EU GDP. It is not an exaggeration to say that the automobile industry is the ballast of the EU.
But it is precisely because of the EU countries' accumulation of fuel technology in the past century that they are unwilling to accept or change their current state. China and the United States are getting further and further in the field of new energy vehicle . When Tesla and Chinese new energy vehicles flood into the market and threaten fuel vehicles, European veteran automobile companies are staggeringly starting to transform into new energy vehicles. Although their wealth is strong, their starting lines are different and they have lost the opportunity. This mistake in judgment may be fatal.
Let’s take a look at this picture. From January to June 2022, the global power battery CATL is the dominant player. Its market share reached 34.9% in the first half of the year. One of every three electric cars in the world is equipped with CATL 2. Among the top three, South Korea LG and BYD ranked second and third respectively. Among the top ten, Chinese companies occupy 6 seats, South Korea occupies three seats, and Japan, which supplies batteries to Tesla, has one seat. As one of the core power batteries, there is nothing in European countries.
Those European countries want to vigorously and quickly increase the production capacity of electric vehicles, either being stucked by Japan, or being stucked by South Korea, or being stucked by China. What’s more serious is that lithium carbonate batteries or ternary lithium batteries as power batteries are all related to lithium elements. China has the highest lithium production in the world. 50% of lithium carbonate production is in China, and lithium hydroxide 78% of the production of lithium hydroxide html is in China, and China’s lithium recycling technology is still the world’s leading. It can be said that the EU’s transformation of new energy vehicles seems to be difficult to bypass China. You said that the EU’s policy is to give China a head.
is more than that. Look at the recent Paris Auto Show in France. Volkswagen, European brands, Lamborghini , Volvo and other brands are all absent. What really supports half of the sky in Paris is China's new energy vehicles, such as Great Wall and BYD's first electric vehicles at the Paris Auto Show, which really stole the limelight of European auto companies.
Another point we should pay attention to is that fuel vehicles are banned. Another saying is that you don’t need to refuel when driving, so the demand for gasoline will decline. There will be various uses for crude oil mining, such as various chemical fibers in textiles, and various polymer . The uses are varied, but if most of the crude oil is made into fuel used by cars, ships, and aircraft, I believe you will not have any questions.
Every year, 72% of the world's crude oil is made into fuel, and 80% of them are consumed by cars. So from this we can know how devastating the ban on selling fuel vehicles will cause to the crude oil market in the future, and the policy of banning the ban on selling fuel vehicles is not just Europe.
In Asia, China, which has the largest fuel consumption of , does not have a clear regulation on banning the sale of fuel vehicles, but the booming electric vehicle reform has long been the main focus of major traditional car companies. For example, in March this year, BYD officially announced the suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles. With the sales of fuel vehicles at 0, its revenue in the third quarter of this year still reached 117 billion, and increased by 115% year-on-year.
Whether it is a new car-making force or a traditional car company in China, even if the country does not enforce it, it is still exerting its efforts in the direction of electric vehicles. Therefore, in China, the transition from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles has become an irreversible general trend.
And Japan, Asia's second largest consumer of crude oil, has officially announced that it will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035.
Let’s take a look at the world’s second largest crude oil consumer. The United States has no national terms for banning fuel vehicles. It only has California announced that it will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035, but it has not been approved by US National Environmental Protection Agency , so it has not yet been legally effective.
Of course, when it comes to the United States here, it is actually the least willing to see the situation of banning the sale of fuel vehicles. Think about why the United States did not sign the Kyoto Protocol at that time. On the surface, it is an objection to the different emission reduction obligations of developing countries and developed countries. In fact, the deep-seated reason is the threat to the hegemony of the US dollar.
emission reduction means a decrease in fuel consumption. Reducing fuel demand means a decrease in crude oil demand. Reducing crude oil demand means a decrease in demand for US dollar. As we all know, the reason why the US dollar has hegemony in today's world is because of the deep binding between the US dollar and oil. The demand for oil by various countries is a basic need, and international crude oil is settled in US dollars. Therefore, each country needs crude oil, so it also needs to sell goods in exchange for US dollars to buy oil. This is the basis of US dollar hegemony.
But the world is reducing emissions, and the world's largest consumer countries, China, Japan, and the EU countries, are implementing emission reduction policies. The large reduction of fuel vehicles will inevitably significantly reduce the demand for oil. The reduction of oil demand also means a reduction in the world's demand for the US dollar. By then, the hegemony of the US dollar will be severely weakened. When oil cannot become the anchor of the US dollar, the history of the US dollar's harvesting of the world will be considered to be the end.
Moreover, after the shale oil revolution in recent years, the United States has become the world's second largest oil producer. Before the oil was sold for a few days, the oil business is coming to an end? Do you think America can be happy?
So this wave of operation in the EU can be said to be a show for us. The EU's ban on the sale of fuel vehicles can benefit the Chinese electric vehicle industry chain at the forefront of the world, and there is still a chance to introduce Chinese electric vehicle brands into Europe. On the other hand, it has given its big brother the United States a heavy blow, shaking the US petrodollar system, which is the masterpiece of the EU's operation . After all, everyone We have been suffering from the US dollar for a long time. Looking at the strong appreciation of the US dollar, we have completely transferred inflation to all countries around the world, including EU countries. It can be said that the EU's ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, Maoyaner agreed with both hands, but I don't know what the old Biden think tank team will consider the issue of crude oil and US dollars. Tell me your opinion, welcome to leave comments, and after reading it, please like it. Thank you for following Maoyaner's channel. See you next time.
