text/Chen Xiang
edit/Qi Fei
Rashomon appears between Russia and Ukraine. In recent days, Russia, Ukraine and Western society have been quarreling around the topic of " dirty bomb ".
was first reported on October 23. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu expressed concerns about "Ukraine may use 'dirty bombs' to provoke" while talking to multiple defense ministers. Pentagon quickly refuted Russia's statement, insisting that Ukraine has no "dirty bombs" at all, and Russia has no signs of using nuclear weapons, , chemical and biological weapons. In the Western view, Ukraine does not need to detonate dirty bombs or use any kind of chemical and biological weapons, because the Ukrainian army has seized the advantage of the battlefield by conventional means.
On October 23, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu had a phone call with US Defense Minister Austin.
US President Biden warned on October 25 that if Moscow is used after the argument of "dirty bomb", it will be "an extremely serious mistake." "I can't assure you that this is a fake flag operation. We don't know. But that would be a serious mistake," Biden said in a press conference. The so-called "fake flag action" refers to misleading the public by using the other party's flag, uniform and other means, so that the public can think that the action is done by the other party.
The whole world is concerned about whether Russia's allegation will become an excuse for the escalation of the crisis. While all parties are engaged in a war of words around the "dirty bomb", NATO is conducting an annual nuclear exercise against Russia, and Russia has also launched the annual nuclear exercise for tat.
On October 26, Russia launched intercontinental missiles during its annual nuclear exercise.
October 26 is the first day of the "Thunder-2022" exercise. The Russian army launched a land-based intercontinental missile and a submarine-launched intercontinental missile, as well as the cruise missile from the Tu-95 strategic bomber. The three launch modes correspond to the nuclear strike capabilities of the Russian Strategic Rocket Force, Navy, and Aerospace Forces.
Russian President Putin watched the military exercise on the TV screen. He also said at the meeting that day that there was evidence that Kiev planned to use "dirty bombs" to provoke Moscow. Russian President's press secretary Peskov said Russia will continue to convey this message to the international community to awaken the world to stop Kiev's actions.
On October 26, Russian President Putin watched the annual nuclear exercise through video.
Russia issued a "dirty bomb" warning, and the West does not believe in
The "dirty bomb theory" that stirred up the situation in Russia and Ukraine came from a series of recent calls between Russia and the West.
On October 21, local time, U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin called Russian Defense Secretary Shoigu, the first contact between the two sides since May this year. Two days later, when Shoigu called Austin, he accused Ukraine of planning to use a dirty bomb on the Russian army. On the same day, Shoigu also spoke with the French, British and Turkish Ministers of Defense and conveyed the same meaning.
On October 24, Igor Kirillov, commander of the Russian Army nuclear biochemical protection corps, threw out more detailed information at the briefing. "Ukraine has a motivation to use dirty bombs, as well as the scientific, technological and production capacity to make it. The detonation of radioactive explosive devices will inevitably lead to the area of thousands of square meters in the region being radioactively contaminated by ." He warned harshly, " Russian Ministry of Defense has arranged to respond to possible provocations in Ukraine: warning means and forces to act in radioactive pollution."
Russia's accusatory remarks were unanimously opposed by the United States, France, Britain and Turkey. After all, in the eyes of , the Western country , this reason is too untenable. However, the United States is still satisfied with the two calls between the US and Russian Defense Ministers. After all, at this moment, it is extremely important to keep communication channels open, so as to prevent the situation from escalating and potential misjudgment. "The world will see through any attempt to use this allegation as an excuse to escalate," Adrien Watson, spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council , said in a statement. She also pointed out that the United States is closely following the Russian military's plan to blow up the new Kahovka Dam on the Dnieper River in Khlsong Prefecture.
The United States, Britain and France issued a joint statement on the evening of October 23, refuting Russia's allegations that Ukraine was ready to use "dirty bombs" and reiterating its continued support for Ukraine's sovereign war.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg also stated that Russia's "dirty bomb" argument is ridiculous. "The allies refuse to accept such blatant false accusations, and Russia should never use false excuses to further escalate the war." He also gave a gunpowder-smelling response, "NATO will not be intimidated or blocked in supporting Ukraine's right to self-defense."
On October 25, Russia further filed a lawsuit against UN Security Council , publicly saying that Ukraine is ready to use "dirty bombs" on its territory. "I don't mind people saying that if this doesn't happen, Russia is just shouting 'The wolf is coming'. Because it's a terrible disaster that could threaten the entire planet," said Dmitry Polyansky, Russia's first deputy representative to the United Nations. He also stressed that Russia did not intend to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the past and present.
Patrick Ryder, director of public affairs at the Office of the Secretary of Defense of the United States Department of Defense, said at the same day that if Russia deploys "dirty bombs" or other types of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, there will be consequences, and these consequences have been communicated to Russia at all levels. Ryder explained: "I have no information to confirm these claims. From the perspective of the United States, the allegations that Ukraine is making dirty bombs are false... We will keep a close eye on both Russia and Ukraine."
On October 25, International Atomic Energy Agency said it is preparing to send inspectors to two locations in Ukraine in the next few days. Earlier, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kureba sent a request to the organization: "Emergency send experts to Ukraine's peaceful facilities, and Russia deceptively claimed that these facilities are developing dirty bombs... Ukraine has always been transparent and nothing to hide."
Polyansky warned again on October 26 that the risk of Ukraine using "dirty bombs" is very high. He said the Ukrainian leadership had been "panicked" as Russia disclosed information about the "dirty bomb" and "there were signals that they were trying to block the plan."
Although the West does not believe in the Russian accusation of "dirty bomb", the British " Guardian " believes that the accusation still contributes to "rare exchanges between Russia and the West."
In addition to the two calls between the US and Russian Defense Ministers, on October 24, the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Gerasimov, also had a phone call with Mark Mili, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. On the 25th, US Department of Defense spokesman Pat Ryder said that Russia has notified it to hold an annual nuclear exercise. The US also said that in the context of doubts about Russia's nuclear operations, Russia's move reduced the risk of misjudgment.
On October 26, Russia's nuclear submarine is launching ballistic missiles.
The U.S. Department of Defense's statement aroused dissatisfaction with Ukraine. Ukraine's Supreme Lada (Parliament) demanded that the Pentagon immediately "responds to Russia's nuclear intentions" and said that "Russian troops may use nuclear exercises to threaten Ukraine's national security."
"dirty bomb" has never been put into actual combat, or has been used politically
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines "dirty bomb" as a bomb that uses explosives to explode radioactive material into the atmosphere. The radioactive material can be in solid, liquid or gas form, and the attacker can also use particles or powder for radioactive transmission.
In the words of " New York Times ", this is a weapon envisioned and tested three quarters of a century ago, that is, the early era, but it has never been put into actual combat by any military force.
In 2010, the site of the "dirty bomb" explosion emergency rescue exercise was carried out outside the outskirts of Madrid, Spain.
The most common conceived version of "dirty bomb" is that it is small enough to fit into a backpack, which may contain 20 pounds (about nine kilograms) or less explosives, with a small amount of radioactive material on the top. But there are some problems with this concept, limiting the chances of bomb makers to succeed.The first is the size of the main filler: if too much explosive material is used, the radioactive material will be consumed by strong heat when the bomb explodes; if too little explosive material is used, the device will not be able to spread the radioactive material far away.
It does not produce atomic explosions, but it releases explosive material and radioactive plumes, causing people to get sick from toxic smoke and dust. A "dirty bomb" may pollute several blocks of a city, and the specific size of the affected area depends on the amount of radioactive materials and wind conditions. Generally speaking, the effectiveness of a “dirty bomb” depends on the time the radioactive material is inhaled and whether it comes into contact with and covers the skin – the higher the radiation level, the greater the negative impact on the victim.
However, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has made a different opinion, believing that "dirty bombs" are unlikely to cause multiple deaths or cause widespread disease, and the real risk lies in the initial explosive explosion. According to the forecast of , the majority of casualties caused by the "dirty bomb" are "the power of heat, debris, radioactive dust and conventional explosions." In short, since there is no precedent to follow, the power of the "dirty bomb" may be overestimated.
There is no doubt that the "dirty bomb" explosion will cause huge panic and leave a lasting psychological shadow on people. Although no similar incident has occurred in human history, people are not unfamiliar with "dirty bomb" because it appears frequently in Hollywood films and TV series. The reason why the topic of "dirty bomb" is popular is that it has a special background in the times - that is, American society is worried about the possibility of various terrorist organizations using "dirty bombs" after the "9/11" incident.
In 2004, the Port of Los Angeles held a "dirty bomb" explosion exercise, and local police were wearing protective suits.
The New York Times believes that while attacks using "dirty bombs" are "not likely to cause massive deaths", it can "cause huge panic and huge economic losses."
From a realistic perspective, Ukraine can create "dirty bombs" without any effort because there is nuclear power plant . However, this is a suicide path. Once the "dirty bomb" is created and used, , the Western world, will definitely cut off aid, and Russia also has sufficient legitimacy to use nuclear weapons.
In the Soviet era, Ukraine was one of the centers of heavy industry. Heavy industry needed a lot of electricity, and five nuclear power plants rose from the ground, including the largest nuclear power plant in Europe - Zaporo Thermal Nuclear Power Plant . It was occupied by the Russian army at the beginning of the conflict, but it was still operated by Ukrainian technicians. Ukrainian State Nuclear Power Corporation manages four other nuclear power plants, including the closed Chernobyl nuclear power plant .
View of the Zaporo Thermal Power Plant from the other side of the Dnieper River.
Ukrainian National Nuclear Power Company issued a statement on October 24 saying that the Russian army has recently carried out unauthorized secret construction work at factories in areas where nuclear fuel storage facilities are insufficient. The company therefore speculated that Russia might be preparing to use nuclear materials and radioactive waste stored in the factory to "carry out some kind of terrorist action."
"Dirty bullet theory" may not be directly helpful to the battlefield, but it can still play an unexpected role in politics. More and more people in Western society think that the more they help Ukraine defeat Russia militarily, the greater the risk of nuclear war in the future.
Zabolotherm nuclear power plant
"The cost of nuclear war on our country and humanity will be terrible." US think tank "National Defense Focus" senior researcher Daniel L. Davis recently reminded, "At present, we are risking whether a country can continue to survive, and are currently threatening our welfare or national security in Far Eastern Europe. Washington should readjust its priorities to protect the safety of its people."
